gen was a 2nd round flyer, not a top pick. Sanchez could never adjust to the NFL, he didn't have the football IQ for it.
so it's stupid to look at videos of them playing, but not stupid to look at college stats which are skewed by surrounding talent, competition, offensive systems. There is 1 thing that has been proven time and time again, and that's that college stats don't mean anything for NFL sucess
NCAA all time passing leaders 1) case keenum (journeyman QB) 2) timmy chang (undrafted never played a snap in the NFL) 3) Landry jones (bust) 4) Graham Harrell (bust) 5) Ty Detmer (career backup) 6) Kellen Moore (bust 7) Mayfield (projected 1st rounder in this draft) 8) Falk (projected 5th rounder in this draft) 9) Colt Brennan (bust) 10) Rakeem Cato (bust)
stats are just the numerical results of how a player performs. Setting "stats" aside for a second...I believe that how a player performs at the college level is an important indicator for how they will perform at the next level. Do you disagree? If you don't then how can you possibly say stats don't mean anything, as stats are the results of that. if you do think that how they performed in college is completely unimportant, then how do you evaluate them and project them? blind faith in your intuition? either way, nothing here has been "proven" thats for sure
College stats are screwed up because QBs come from different systems and play at different levels of competition. So most stats don't indicate how well a QB will do in the NFL.
I get that. Every methodology has flaws and nothing is the end all, be all, especially something with as many moving parts as this is. But you can't dismiss stats. They can still tell you a lot about prospects. For example, we should've known Hackenberg sucks. Set his statistical performances aside and watch him throw in a controlled environment, I bet he looks awesome... but the results were telling a different story. Results are important
No. What was proven time and time again is that good QBR in College may or may not succeed in NFL. There are plenty of good today's starting NFL QBs who had good QBR in College, such as Wilson, Mariotta, Bradford, Keenum, Carr, Roethlisberger, Bortles. I am sure there are more, but all of these guys I listed had 150+ QBR and they didn't fail. Yet, what was also proven, is that there are not many examples of a QB with 56% completion rating doing well in NFL today. These are quite huge odds for Allen to overcome.
It's indeed a fact, but you'd have to rely on people who are around him. We'll see how much pull his opinion has on April 26.
no it means college stats don't mean anything. It's surely a red flag if they sucked in college, but college is such a different game then the NFL big numbers are meaningless. rex doens't draft players
You can't just dismiss the fact no one with completion % of <=56, like Allen, succeeded in modern NFL. I've already shown that quite a few good passers in College are good NFL QBs TODAY. Yet there are NO <=56% accurate passers that succeed. That is as enormous a red flag as there can be one.
Not to belabor this point too much, but hearing from a friend of a friend that Parcells prefers Allen does not make it a fact.
I'm not dismissing that at all. I'd much rather have rosen or darnold which if the rumors are true and the browns take allen at 1, we are guarenteed at least 1 of them. I'd be much happier with allen going to cleveland then to the jets. But you can't dismiss the fact that all the other Qbs in college who put up "mayfield" numbers were busts. or the fact that only 2 QBs of mayfields size have been sucessfull in the NFL over the past 20 years. Also you can't dismiss the fact that Allens talent around him was so bad, there isn't a single player on his offense worthy of being drafted. all the other top QBs have at least 3-4 players worthy of being drafted on their offense. that's huge odds to overcome.
Thanks! And that is why Parcells was a winner. And why (so far) Bowles is a loser - Todd just doesn't understand these concepts apparently, especially "clock, clock, clock!".
I wouldn't be so sure the Giants pass on Rosen, and also wouldn't be too sure they don't trade the pick to someone who would taken Rosen - this is my nightmare.
Agreed that it would be absolutely fantastic night for the Jets is Browns take Allen, and we end up with Rosen/Darnold. If this dream scenario does not occur though, we are faced with a choice of Allen and Mayfield. Jets don't get to pick top 3 that often, almost never. I just don't see how we can take a giant gamble on Allen being the first guy in modern NFL who passed 56% in College to even become NFL solid starter. He would have to become the first player this century to beat these kind of odds. This is a lot to ask. At least there are some good shorter QBs in NFL today and quite a few QBs with good numbers in College, as I showed earlier in this thread. Allen would be the FIRST 56% passer to break through in modern NFL. Maybe if we had top picks often like Browns, it would be OK to justify this type of gamble, but not for the Jets with top 3 picks almost never coming our way.
I mean to be fair, mayfield would be the first QB in the NFL at 6'1" or smaller who ran a spread offense in the NCAA and was successful in the NFL (brees and wilson ran pro offenses in college) so same could be said of either side. Allen also played with 0 draftable players on offense. he had the worse talent around him by far of any of the top 5 Qbs in the draft. When your Wrs suck and you have no o-line or run game, the QB numbers will suffer. not to mention playing a pro offense (which also hurts college stats) I guess my point was, if you were to switch out allen and mayfield, mayfield would have performed even worse for wyoming and not even be considered a 1st rounder and allen would have performed as good as, if not better then mayfield. There is a reason allen is looked at with the 1st pick and mayfield isn't on the radar. There is no reason to believe mayfield will be drafted before allen/rosen/darnold in any scenerio
I agree that size does hinder Mayfield as there are only a few examples of shorter QBs as starters in NFL today. But I don't think combining spread and size makes sense though. 1/3 of the League QBs comes from spread offenses, so it is not something to "overcome", like lack of size or poor completion %. But even if you do combine, there is still one starter out there: Tyrod Taylor . Also, it is an absolute myth that his WRs sucked more that others. Looking at dropped balls, Allen had 7.84% balls dropped, including the one you posted a film of. Mayfield had 9.49% of balls dropped, and Rosen 11.01%. So, if anything Allen BENEFITED compared to other QBs, who had more balls dropped, particularly Rosen. The reason Allen is looked at as a top QB is because of his physical attributes, not performance. If he does beat these giant odds, there isn't a throw he can't make, never been injured, incredible size and strength. Unfortunately the odds to beat are so massive and the 3d pick for the Jets is so rare, I'd rather take a chance on a 6-1 QB where there are modern NFL examples, vs a 56% passer where there aren't.
