Another Klatt video. Most of the video is him praising Darnold as the #1 pick in the draft. Still has Mayfield going to the Jets and believes it to be a good fit: Also makes the point that we may have seen the best of Baker.
I put him on sometimes just to laugh at what a sniveling ass kisser he is. Last week he said "Tom Brady has a Tim Duncan-like quality to him, which makes him the most fascinating athlete of my time." The fuck?
I know these forums are completely in love with the kid and will label me biased which makes no sense at all, but i wanted to do a historical look at why taking him 3rd overall is a bad idea. not a film look. 1) He comes from a spread style offense. In other words his stats got inflated with a college system. He's never ran a pro style offense or played under center. In other words there is literally 0 film or evidence that he can run a pro style offense or how he'd look in one making him a big question mark. Historically speaking all the NCAA leaders wind up being busts. pretty much every QB from a spread offense with bakers production has failed in the NFL. Anyone who "believes" he can do something he's never tried to do, is pure conjecture. It would be like taking a college QB who moves to WR in the NFL 3rd overall. You just don't do that. You take them in the later rounds in hope they can make the switch and produce. When you take a player top 3, you expect them to be a pro bowler, you take a player who has a proven track record doing what they will be asked in the NFL, good film doing what you expect, and all the measurable to make them a blue chip offense. Mayfield lacks all 3 of these things you want to see before taking with a 3rd overall pick. 2) his size, i'm sorry but this can not be overlooked or over stated enough. In the modern day NFL there are only 2 successful Qbs his size. Drew Brees and Russel Wilson. I'm going to go over them in a bit but before I do that i want to point out drew brees was a 2nd round pick. Not a 1st round or top 3 pick. The chargers traded down in that draft out of the 1 spot to number 5. ATL traded up from 5 to select QB vick. the chargers got a ton of extra picks and with the 5th overall pick took LT. A HOF RB who dominated the NFL. Had they taken brees 5th overall or even vick 1st overall, they would have missed out on LT. Wilson was drafted in the 3rd round. Their 1st rounder was bruce irvin who was a good LBer for them totaling 22 sacks for them over his 1st 4 years, and later signed to oakland as a free agent racking up 15 sacks in his 2 seasons with them. with their 2nd round pick they traded down with the jets who selected stephen hill (gross) and they got an extra picked and took bobby wagner a pro bowl MLB who is still with the team. In other words, by ot reaching for a QB prospect who is too short to be a top pick, the chargers got a HOF RB on offense, and seattle got 2 key defensive players to build up their defense Now lets talk about the sucess of these 2 QBs. yes both won a SB but i'll explain why that doens't matter in a bit. Drew Brees - lets face it, drew brees sucked his 1st 3 years in the NFL. He got to sit a year 1 year and not play, then started for them in years 2 and 3 and was bad. Even with a HOF RB to take pressure off of him, he managed 28TDs to 31 INTs and went 10-17 as a starter. Are jet fans willing to wait 3 years before labeling mayfield a bust and seeing bowles and hack fired? in his 3rd year the chargers were 4-12 and picking 1st overall. they gave up on brees and wound up with rivers at QB 4th overall after drafting eli 1st overall but he refused to play for them so they traded him. they allowed brees to finish the last year of his contract so rivers can sit for a year. Then in year 4, brees played very well. he still only threw for 3100 yards but everything else was great. He was good enough that SD decided to franchise him and had rumors swirling they could look to trade rivers and keep brees. Then playing on the franchise tag he had just an OK season when in week 16 he blew out his rotator cuff forcing him to miss the rest of the season. SD decided to let him walk and run with rivers. He went to the saints who had just hired offensive guru sean payton as their head coach and they've been together ever since. he also has the benefit of playing in a dome 9 games a year. He did win 1 superbowl but that year while their defense wasn't statistically great, it was timely as they led the NFL in turnovers and in the playoffs they only allowed .4 more PPG then our top 5 defense did that year. They held peyton manning to only 17 points in the SB and also got a pick 6 on him. in other words, brees only needed to put up 11 points to win that game. He has not been back to the SB in 8 years since then, despite being a locked in HOF QB. Russell Wilson - Wilson is an interesting one. He won the starting job over matt flynn, but took over a seattle team that was already pretty good and winning with old journeman matt hasslebeck at QB. He had a top tier "legion of boom" defense and beast mode at RB. He’s also much more mobile then Mayfield and averages 545 yards rushing per year. Only twice in his 6 year career has he passed for 4k yards. They drafted golden tate in the 1st round 2 years before Wilson, who got labeled a bust and left to play for the lions after never reaching 900 yards in any season his first 4 years with the (2 of which were with Wilson) after going to Detroit he’s eclipsed 1000 yards 3 out of his 4 years there and is there number 1 WR. They traded a 1st round pick to get jimmy graham. Widely considered the 2nd best TE in the NFL at the time. After 4 years in NO with brees at QB (not including his rookie season) he averaged over 11TDs a year, 1100 yards a year, 88 catches a year. Those numbers dropped to 6TDs, 682 yards, and 57 catches. They traded Kearse to the jets who had his best season of his career with Mccown throwing to him over Wilson. No WR has flourished with Wilson at QB. Now onto the superbowl, he won in a 43-8 ass whooping over the broncos. His defense only let up 8 points. It was 1 TD as the last play of the 3rd quarter (and 2 point conversion) the game was already 36-0 at this point. The defense/special teams scored 16 points not including FG at this point (return TD, INT TD, safety) Wilson didn’t throw his 1st TD until 3 mins left in the 3rd quarter when the score was already 29-0 (the other 13 points were 2 FGs and a lynch rushing TD). His 2nd and last TD was with 11:45 left in the game making it 43-8 which was the final score. In other words, he didn’t really have to do anything to win. The defense and special teams dominated and won that superbowl. The defense and special teams scored more points then they allowed. Similar to when dilfer won the SB with the ravens against the giants. He got another shot at a SB in 2015 (the 2015 season) A SB in which they were up 24-14 to start the 4th quarter against the pats. Brady however scored 14 points in the 4th quarter while Wilson failed to move the seattle offense. Here is the kicker though, the final drive. The one that separates them men from the boys with a chance to win the SB. He throws a jump ball to Kearse which was tipped by the CB but Kearse made an amazing catch with 1 hand while on the ground. This gave seattle 1st and goal form the 5 yard line. The next play was a lynch run for 1 yard making it 2nd and goal from the 4 with 26 seconds on the clock. Seattle for some reason, calls a pass play and Wilson throws a game losing INT. Wilson finished 12/21 (57%) 247 yards 2 TDs and 1 INT. there have been 3 seasons since then. 2 losses in the divisional game (panthers, falcons) and last year missing the playoffs after going 9-7. They also lost a lot of talent and are a team on the decline. Wilson will be lucky to ever get another shot at a superbowl in his career The moral of this story is, these Qbs didn’t win their team SBs or carry them. They only won, when the team around them were really good, more-so in wilsons case. Those teams wouldn’t have been built up had they reached for these QBs. Also undersized spread system Qbs aren’t worthy of a top 3 pick. I don’t have anything against Mayfield, If the jets wanted to use a flyer on him like the 2nd or 3rd round like we did for hack or petty, I’d be fine with it. That’s what these teams did with brees and Wilson. I just can’t see any reason to justify taking a qb 3rd overall with these odds stacked against them. Also worth noting, Wilson ran a pro-style offense in college as did brees. There hasn’t been a single QB who ran a spread offense in college at 6’1” or shorter who got drafted top 3 in the NFL and not a single one that has been successful in today's modern NFL. In other words, the odds are completely stacked against Mayfield. I know everyone loves an underdog story, but its not a good idea to hinge your franchise on one.
Yes ..all of us can't wait for Allen Coming out of college, Baker is prob a better and more talented player than Wilson / Bree's Bree's did well at Purdue and I don't know about Wilson...but I do know they WERENT a walk on player handed a Heisman
very rarely does a QB running a pro offense win a hiesman in college. Hiesmen winnings Qbs rarely succeed in the NFL. Also Lamaar jackson won a hiesman over mayfield the year before this one, but nobody mentions that at all?
I can't wait until we don't draft Mayfield, this forum will be whine assing, and it will never end, coming from the same fan base who still whines about O'Brien over Marino
Heisman aside, LJ gets drafted because some team likes that type of run/ throw athletic QB...Jackson is a good fit for SOME Team
he's a QB, he'll be over drafted and go late in the 1st (maybe NO or pitt) I really like LJ and think he has a good chance to be successful. before we traded to 3, I mocked darnold and rosen being gone by 6, so i had us trading down with the bills and drafting LJ and an OT with the back to back picks (this was before buffalo moved up to 12) But LJ isn't a 1st round prospect either. he's a flier QB like mayfield. The way i see it is this Darnold - top 3 pick, best QB prospect since luck Rosen - 10-15 range, Ron of the mill "top QB in the draft type" like trubisky last year. Will be over drafted top 5 due to need Allen - mid to late 1st round. Has all the measurable you want and a cannon but inconsistent and had poor talent around him hurting his production. will be over drafted maybe even 1st overall Mayfield - Good intangibles but lack of size and experience running a pro offense. flyer/project QB. rounds 2-3 will be over drafted maybe as high as 5 to the broncos but not before that. if he slips past denver i expect him to go 11/12 to mia/buff Jackson - big arm and fast as hell. exciting player. But lacks zip on intermediate throws (same knock as watson BTW) and needs to learn a pro style offense and not rely too much on his legs. flyer/project QB. rounds 2-3. will be overdrafted late 1st to pitt or NO, maybe even NE
Rosen has top 5 talent. IMO, it's impossible for him to get overdrafted. Obviously the concussions are a big red flag, but that won't cause him to slip to the 10-15 range. The attitude stuff is much ado about nothing to me. He's willing to speak his mind on issues.
I know he will be drafted higher, what i'm saying though is if rosen wasn't a QB he wouldn't be drafted that high. take for example the NFL grades (which trust me i know are far from perfect) he grades as a 6.1. a 6.1 is "a chance to become a good NFL starter" players with a 6.1 typically get drafted in the middle of the first. Players with a 6 to 6.49 grade typically get lumped in with each other. once you hit the 6.5 you move into the "good NFL starter with pro bowl potential" bracket which is one bracket up. So if I count the 6.5 or higher grades there are 9 of them. In other words they see 9 potential probowlers in this draft (5 of which are supposed to be locks to make one) that should go before rosen. putting him in the 10-15 range. but of course he's a QB so he'll go higher. That puts him in the same bracket as trubisky (taken 2nd overall) and Mariotta (taken 2nd overall) but behind goff (1st overall) and wentz (2nd overall) not a slight on rosen by any means.
That's nice. As far as spread offenses are concerned, Nick Foles, Case Keenum, and Blake Bortles all came out of these offenses. That represents 75% of this past year's Championship game QB class. Two of them, Foles and Keenum, were Air Raid QBs as well. As far as the height issue is concerned, you are making some incredible reaches. Teams scheme around the strengths and weaknesses of every QB in the NFL. Height is one "weakness", but it also in the territory of making a mountain out of a mole hill. The question that is actually important is can the player play football well? If the answer is yes, then height doesn't matter as Brees and Wilson have both proven. At any rate, everyone should decide for themselves. To that end, I'll help: After some quick stat checking, the five most difficult defenses Mayfield has faced in college are as follows: 2017: Georgia (#4 YPG, #4 PPG): Oklahoma 48 - Georgia 54 Recap: http://www.espn.com/ncf/recap/_/id/400953412 Box Score: http://www.espn.com/college-football/boxscore?gameId=400953412 Mayfield: 23-35, 287yd, 2 TD, 1 INT, QBR 64.0 2016: Ohio State (#5 YPG, #3 PPG): Oklahoma 24 - Ohio State 45 Recap: http://www.espn.com/ncf/recap/_/id/400869613 Box Score: http://www.espn.com/college-football/boxscore?gameId=400869613 Mayfield: 17-32, 226yd, 2 TD, 2 INT, QBR 22.8 2016: Aurburn (#20 YPG, #5 PPG): Oklahoma 35 - Auburn 19 Recap: http://www.espn.com/ncf/recap/_/id/400876112 Box Score: http://www.espn.com/college-football/boxscore?gameId=400876112 Mayfield: 19-28, 296yd, 2 TD, 0 INT, QBR 95.2 2015: Clemson (#7 YPG, #18 PPG): Oklahoma 17 - Clemson 37 Recap: http://www.espn.com/ncf/recap/_/id/400852733 Box Score: http://www.espn.com/college-football/boxscore?gameId=400852733 Mayfield: 26-41, 311yd, 1 TD, 2 INT, QBR 52.7 2017: Ohio State (#8 YPG, #22 PPG): Oklahoma 31 - Ohio State 16 Recap: http://www.espn.com/ncf/recap/_/id/400934502 Box Score: http://www.espn.com/college-football/boxscore?gameId=400934502 Mayfield: 27-35, 386yd, 3 TD, 0 INT, QBR 87.5 Defense ranking source: http://www.espn.com/college-footbal...otal/position/defense/sort/totalPointsPerGame
The closer we get to the draft the truer the mocks are. Stock rising/stock falling is mock draft talk for we were way off on our grades and are correcting it without admitting we were so far off
bortles is 6'5" foles is 6'6". only keenum is the same height as mayfield and he's hardly been a FQB in the NFL. As far as sucess goes, bortles was almost released this offseason but got saved by an injury. Foles and keenum are career journeyman/back-up QBs who only got a chance to start due to injuries. If anything, all you did was make a case that you don't need a franchise QB to win a SB as none of them are FQB. do you really want to draft a QB 3rd overall who turns out to be a career journeyman/backup QB? If you knew better you would have said Newton who came from a spread offense and went 1st overall and won a league MVP. But again newton is 6'5" very mobile big and strong QB who also has a tailor made "run-option" offense he runs in carolina. 2 players being rare exceptions doens't mean mayfield will join them. for every brees or wilson out there , there are a dozen busts at the same height. Also if you read the whole post you'd see why even those 2 are not great examples. Go back and read what i wrote about brees and wilson before you try and use them as an example. Not sure what you are trying to prove? I already said stats don't matter and even the best college defenses don't compare to the worst NFL defense. even with that said it shows he played poorly in 3 out of those 5 games at least stat wise and lost 3 out of those 5. In short, i mean I took like an hour to write that post out, you can take 5 mins to read it before replying
While I'm at it: Josh Allen vs the 5 hardest defenses he faced: 2016 #12 YPG #19 PPG San Diego State (x2) Wyoming 34 - San Diego State 33 Recap: http://www.espn.com/ncf/recap/_/id/400869250 Box Score: http://www.espn.com/college-football/boxscore?gameId=400869250 Allen: 16-31, 282yd, 2 TD, 1 INT, QBR 82.6 Wyoming 24 - San Diego State 27 Recap: http://www.espn.com/ncf/recap/_/id/400926949 Box Score: http://www.espn.com/college-football/boxscore?gameId=400926949 Allen: 14-31, 248yd, 3 TD, 2 INT, QBR 23.8 2016 #32 YPG #15 PPG BYU Wyoming 21 - BYU 24 Recap: http://www.espn.com/ncf/recap/_/id/400876044 Box Score: http://www.espn.com/college-football/boxscore?gameId=400876044 Allen: 17-32, 207yd, 2 TD, 2 INT, QBR 47.3 2017 #35 YPG #20 PPG Iowa Wyoming 3 - Iowa 24 Recap: http://www.espn.com/ncf/recap/_/id/400935233 Box Score: http://www.espn.com/college-football/boxscore?gameId=400935233 Allen: 23-40, 174yd, 0 TD, 2 INT, QBR 24.9 2016 #21 YPG #31 PPG Nebraska Wyoming 17 - Nebraska 52 Recap: http://www.espn.com/ncf/recap/_/id/400869187 Box Score: http://www.espn.com/college-football/boxscore?gameId=400869187 Allen: 16-32, 189yd, 1 TD, 5 INT, QBR 38.2
You keep bringing up the height. I'll trust the opinion of Russell Wilson's former offensive coordinator: https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/02/23/b...tudy-darrell-bevell-russell-wilson-comparison I'm not even going to respond to the rest of the garbage you wrote as it isn't anything I've said and I'm not going to speculate on your speculation. Also, the videos weren't necessarily for you (though you're obviously more than welcome to them), but rather a resource for everyone who hasn't watched Oklahoma's games and wants to see Mayfield play against tough defenses. I also just posted one for Allen and I'll probably do one for Darnold and Rosen too.
again dude, i made a long post, and you take the time to reply but don't even read it. makes no sense. wilson was also a 3rd round pick not a top 3 pick and i also broke down all of wilson's short comings as an NFL QB. also you didn't read you link at all becuase it's not very "pro baker" either. it echo's everything i said all along about why we shouldn't draft him.
