Anyone Besides Darnold/Rosen at 3...We Failed

The problem with drafting a QB that has not shown the ability to play QB well with great measurables is the best your likely to get if he develops and everything works out perfect for him is a below average QB with great measurables. Allen's realistic ceiling is very low or that of a guy like Bortles. The floor for Darnold, Mayfield and Rosen is arguably higher than Allen's realistic ceiling.

It's great to have a guy that can make a nice highlight reel but it's not so great if he he lacks, accuracy, anticipation, pocket presence, the ability to throw the ball on time and the ability to perform under pressure. Probably the most important ability for a QB is he able to move the chains and convert third downs. When we have the discussion of analytics vs. measureables that is where I would focus on. One can look at any number of stats in analytics where Allen fails but to me the most important stat to look at can the QB extend drives and convert on third downs. It shows can he read defenses, can he handle pressure, can he convert short throws, can he get rid of the ball quickly. It requires a QB not a guy with mesaureables. I am not going to proclaim Mayfield a sure thing because of analytics as he has his own red flags. I would be thrilled with any of the top 3 QBS in Mayfield, Darnold or Rosen. But I will say there is only one QB in this draft that scares me and looks doomed to failure who will likely destroy a franchise for the next decade and that is Allen. If teams were sensible and took Allen in round 2 or 3 I would not feel that way. But taking him high in round one guarantees him three or four years of playtime and will likely destroy whatever franchise drafts him for the foreseeable future.

 

I wouldnt take Allen over anyone except Mayfield. I think the choice between Allen and Mayfield is close, can understand why either is picked if thats whats left after the first 3 selections. Darnold is my favorite over Rosen, mostly due to durability concerns.

As for Allen being s 3rd round pick other than his measurables??? You could say that about a lot of really successful players. Big Ben strikes me as an idiot, has off the charts measurables too and learned to play the game to the point of being a HOF type QB. Take away Rodgers arm and escapability, Favres arm, Marinos arm and release, whats left? Mahomes was a 2nd day projection before his combine. Threw hard, ended his workout throwing the ball up for a 70 pass to no one and went on day one. Jet fans keep saying we blew it not taking him. Now they dont want the guy who has been a day 1, 3rd QB projection for 2 years. With a bigger arm than Mahomes, who threw a couple of 80 completions at his pro day. Odd thinking

Agree, no one will blame you if you pick Darnold and he doesnt work out. Happens but he is most peoples number 1 so hard to find fault with the pick. But also dont think you'll catch hell taking the 3rd QB on most lists, higher on some, at 3 if Darnold and Rosen are already off the board.

Im venting, lol.

 

This is the most open-minded post you've made, and while I don't completely agree with it, I appreciate the fact that you admit you might not know any better than the rest of us (in so many words). Just wanted to acknowledge it.

 

What it is. We all know there's experts here who know better tho.

 

Mccoy is a very similar prospect to mayfield

 

Good post but if a guy doesn't have the measurable of a pro-QB he is also likely to fail. The reality is Allen has the measurable but not the throws to indicate very much. Mayfield doesn't have pro-football measurable. Neither Allen or Mayfield should be considered 1st round picks based on any logic.

Realistically Rosen and Darnold haven't done very much either.

This draft has a lot of QB bodies. The reality is the league has rarely had more than 10 to 15 franchise QB's at any one time ever. The only reason any of these QB's are in the argument as top picks is the desperation to fill that slot. The reality is this draft has QB bust written all over it.

The CBA made the risk of picking a QB bust much smaller and not surprisingly we are seeing more of them taken early.

 

the last time i can remember 3 at minimum stud QBs coming from the top 10 in the first round was the eli/rivers/ ben draft. Ben IMO is the bets of the 3, followed by rivers although he never won a SB, followed by eli who has only been decent but still won a couple of SBs

 

Manning is a highly under-rated QB. I went to the NFC Championship game in SF a few years ago. It was amazing the beating he took in that game and never put the ball on the turf. The few times they were in position he made incredible high quality throws under duress. It was obvious in that game how much tougher he was than Alex Smith who looked agitated all game. Eli is one of the toughest guys in the NFL. It's also a lot tougher to be the face of the franchise in NY than in SD or even Pittsburgh. The Giants gave up a ton to get him over Rivers. Smartest thing they ever did. The best team the Giants had was the year after they won their first SB against the Pats. If Burris didn't shot himself and derail that season he probably has 3 SB. I think he's a lock for the HOF and has been much more clutch than Rivers.

 

I give eli a lot of credit for what he does good, but he never put it together really to have a good season. he's never been a top QB either. he's made only 1 probowl in his career, and makes a lot of dumb mistakes.

But he is a great leader, with a great arm (albeit a bit incosistent) and one seriously tough SOB. who has stepped up in big games

 

The biggest question in that post is what the Fxxx were you doing in a Giants game...

 

Eli always seemed like the kind of guy you want in the playoffs. The question it's whether you'll actually get there.

 

4 pro bowls and over 30TD passes 3 times. His playoff log blows Rivers away. He ain't Brady or Rodgers but he did outplay both of them in the playoffs. I would love to see the Jets get someone as good who could stay healthy and build around and raise his level of play in big moments.

You don't have to be great all the time. You have to be good enough and when the moment for greatness is at hand have the talent to be great. That's why measurable matter. If you want to make the playoffs Mayfield is the guy. If you want to win SB's you better get a guy who can keep his cool, see the field and make a back breaking play when it counts.

 

Unless his receivers are on a boat party in Miami the week before a playoff game.

 

dam 4? lol no idea how that happened. he's only managed 2 seasons with a 2:1 TD to INT ratio and a career QBR of 83.5 and a career completion % of under 60. he's thrown 339 TDs but also has a whopping 228 INTs and 115 fumbles. he's also only thrown over 4k yards 6 times in his 13 years as a starter. All those numbers are pretty mediocre. Nowadays 60% is the minimum completion %, 2:1 TD to INT ratio, and 4k yards is considered a good season. his averages are all below that. Taking that into account his only good seasons were 2014 and 2015.

 

I had a client in SF who was a huge Giants fan. I told him and I never though it would happen that if the Giants and SF were in the Championship game I would take him. It cost me. It was a fantastic game. You can't even imagine how tough and nasty Patrick Willis and they SF D was. Eli took a brutal beating in that game. I really had a lot of respect for him after that game. Smith, who played okay looked totally intimidated. He was very jumpy all game. It was very different live than on TV. You really get a sense of how tough that SF D was. They really laid guys out. Very chippy tough team particularly after the whistle.

Candlestick park made Shea stadium look beautiful in comparison. Amazingly crappy stadium. Great experience. SF fans were actually pretty reasonable. I've been to Gillette a few times for Jets games. It's not a fun place for Jets fans.

 

Kiper has him 1 overall. Mayock has him at the top of his draft. Almost all have him 3rd though. No one worth a damn him outside of the top 10

 

Crazy how in a few weeks he goes from 5th ranked QB to 1st. This is going to flip flop 30 times from now till the draft so take it all with a grain of salt.

 

He has the body of a lion and the head of a puppy.

 

And I think Mayfield fits the bill on both counts, I'm not sure at all about Allen. I also think Rosen can answer the bell.