I tend to agree, but when you don't win any at all, it does raise some eyebrows. Has he proven he can win in the elements or in a hostile environment, or does he need a favorable environment to get it done? Was he just as consistent on the road?
you def want to see him go deep more often, he needs to refine his deep ball just a little bit more, but I am not worried about it. Rosen has taken big sacks in big situations going through reads. As long as the Jets invest in the line, Rosen will be fine. Still want him to take what the defense gives him sometimes tho, he doesnt always check down.
Why not just read this article that looked at every throw these guys made? https://www.google.com/amp/amp.si.c...ield-advance-analytics-nfl-draft-oklahoma-pff
Joe thomas is the best LT in the NFL for a decade and hasn't won shit due to being on the browns. College is also heavily weighted towards the big money schools and really not fairly competitive like the NFL is. You cna't judge any player on wins and losses alone let alone in college. "winning" college Qbs rarely succeed in the NFL. https://www.barkingcarnival.com/2008/11/20/d-1a-qbs-with-30-wins/ Wins Player Years Team 42 David Greene 2001-04 Georgia 39 Peyton Manning 1994-97 Tennessee 38 Ken Dorsey 1999-02 Miami (Fla) 37 Dan Marino 1979-82 Pittsburgh 37 Matt Leinart 2002-05 Southern California 37 Ty Detmer 1988-91 BYU 36 John Rauch 1945-48 Georgia 35 Chad Pennington 1997-99 Marshall 35 Chris Leak 2003-06 Florida 35 Chuck Ealey 1969-71 Toledo 35 Chuck Long 1982-85 Iowa 35 Donovan McNabb 1995-98 Syracuse 35 Eric Crouch 1998-01 Nebraska 35 Jay Barker 1991-94 Alabama 34 Casey Clausen 2000-03 Tennessee 34 Lance McIlhenny 1980-83 Southern Methodist 34 Philip Rivers 2000-03 North Carolina St 33 Chad Henne 2004-07 Michigan 33 Corey Pullig 1992-95 Texas A&M 33 Mark Herrmann 1977-80 Purdue 33 Tommie Frazier 1992-95 Nebraska 32 Chris Weinke 1997-00 Florida St 32 Danny White 1971-73 Arizona State 32 Danny Wuerffel 1993-96 Florida 32 Paul Pinegar 2002-05 Fresno St 32 Rodney Williams 1985-88 Clemson 32 Steve Davis 1973-75 Oklahoma 31 *Patrick White 2005-08 West Virginia 31 Timmy Chang 2000-04 Hawaii 30 *Colt McCoy 2006-08 Texas 30 Brooks Bollinger 2000-03 Wisconsin 30 Cade McNown 1995-98 UCLA 30 Doug Flutie 1981-84 Boston College 30 Jamelle Holieway 1985-88 Oklahoma 30 Vince Young 2003-05 Texas I only count 4 good QBs on that list
becuase it's a poor article trying to use split stats instead of actual film. So for instance the perfect 50 yard bomb for a TD allen threw gets 0 YAC, meanwhile the shitty should have been a TD high throw to a wide open TE mayfield threw got like 3-4 YAC
Yeah but 2 of them are in the top 4 (6). This would show picking a qb with 37+ wins gives you a 33% of getting a total stud/arguably best qb ever. Manning and Marino!!!
Not only that, but read the article it's pretty funny Like i said he was often throwing to wide open recievers. 80% of his throws were in "clear windows" with only 20% being in "tight windows" in the NFL most throws are into tight windows. A huge benefit he got from the spread offense. again the same concern i said. I haven't seen him make "NFL throws" Like i said, there becomes an inherent issue when you decide to put a number to a player based on too many variables. It's almost like the NFL catch rule, it's become so over complicated with stupid stipulations, that clear catches were overturned based on a technicality. It's obvious to watch a play and see if it's a catch or not, but the NFL fucked it up to the point where it's trying to fix it because obvious catches were overturned.
which is why all the quoted college stats are meaningless further proving my point. they can be twisted in any way to fill a predetermined outcome.
the good news is, whoever we draft will get to sit for a year. and rosen has the type of IQ that could make huge strides in a year to his game
I think the more appropriate comparison would be how many QB's lost ALL of their road games in their final year, or winning % on the road overall, and see how many of them succeeded at the NFL level. But a more accurate analysis would probably just be the film on Rosen's road games. I bring it up as any comparison of Mayfield to Rosen, as the production ready QB's, will come down to results. Mayfield has proven he can play well in big spots, on the road, etc..
the problem is, it becomes more of a "witch hunt" then anything else. there are too many variables to every game. You can pin a win or loss on any one player. You can't go back and say tom brady lost the superbowl, or he fumbled on the final drive. Brady was light out and outplayed foles every step up the way, but foles came out the winner
Foles didn't fumble away the game, and didn't drop the easy pass at a critical moment. He was the better QB deserving of the win. But I digress, and I agree that wins are not a QB stat. If the statement however is that Rosen is Mr. Consistent, why such shitty results on the road? I think it's a fair question. Mayfield appears more consistent to me.
If i look at his losses vs wins avg points per away game 34.4PPG avg points per home game win 38.8 PPG defense points allowed on the road 45.5 at home 28PPG the offense only scored 4 less PPG on the road while the defense allowed 17.5PPG more on the road with that said, I tend to lean more towards the defense sucking balls on the road, then rosen. I will say rsoen threw a lot more picks on the road then home (8 to 2) but that could be playing from behind a lot. the 134.1QBR on the road is still pretty dam good.
Baker Mayfield imo is the best, most pro ready QB. He does have accuracy problems, but he'll have to work through them and he isn't a day one starter any way. I'd be fine with Rosen also though and that's likely who Mac will take.
20% of Baker’s throws being tight windows would equate to about 300 throws over the course of his college career, which is a solid sample size.
not really. the average NFL QB throws 500 passes per season. take a 10 year career which is what you'd hope for at minimum from a 3rd overall pick and that's 5k passes. say 80% have to be tight windows that's 4k passes. Also a "college" tight window is much bigger then an "NFL" tight window with the smarts and speed of DBs in the NFL compared to the one's in college.
Meant in the context of being a college Qb. Josh Allen has thrown far fewer overall tight window throws, and has shown less ability to complete those throws. Since he’s not a spread qb these things tend to get overlooked.
