Allen has several kind of glaring tells as a prospect at this point. 1. Is not a particularly accurate passer. 2. Got worse from his second season to his third. 3. Played poorly against good teams. 4. Played poorly at the end of both seasons he started. The question is: what makes him a "good" prospect? The answer is that he has size and a great arm and looks like a QB. That's Christian Hackenberg in a nutshell. If Allen had played in the Big 10 like Hackenberg he would be a 6th round pick.
The real problem is that people look at their guy and dont see their negatives. And then overstate the negatives of the guy they dont want. If you want to call Allens negatives MASSIVE well so are Mayfields. His might be more massive, because if we go by what is critiqued, Mayfield is the bigger chance of a bust. A gimmick O that doesnt play in the NFL, footwork that needs to be cleaned up, too short, a wildcard personality, numbers blown up with short dink passes and a powerhouse roster vs needs to throw with more touch, possible footwork issues and not force throws, needs to be more consistent than he showed on a poor team. Neither is a guaranteed worthy pick at 3, neither is guaranteed to bust. Just the Mayfield contingent doesnt want to recognize or admit this.
I didn't say he was a moron. I don't know what he is. I do know Wentz can process really fast. Being an NFL QB is mostly about your brain. Everyone who is picked into the NFL has skills. All the QB's we are looking at can throw the ball. It's their vision, brain, work ethic, understanding and processing that will separate them at the next level. Wentz blew people away during his interviews. He had a 40 wonderlic and on top of that a photographic memory. What that means to me is he can look at lots of information and actually process it and understand it. The only real question about Wentz was how long it would take him to process the speed of the NFL game. Apparently not very long. I haven't seen anyone blown away by Allen smarts or seen his wonderlic. I do know at a crappy competitive level he was okay. I do know he has a great arm and terrific NFL body. I do know that he not only had a bad completion percentage but he had it while not completing lots of long passes which for a guy with his arm and ability to extend plays should be a given. He's college numbers are very inefficient, he didn't distinguish himself. That said he has a great arm, really clean release, great size which is important. He looks solid enough to throw when getting jostled, real important. The question is can he process the speed at the next level when we don't even know if he could do it at the College level. Got it! We need to know if he's smart, really smart because if we draft him he will be expected to be the face of this franchise for a decade or more. He is going to have to buckle down and even more than being a gym rat he's going to have to process lots of information very quickly. Being a gym rat doesn't make you an NFL QB. It's the brain seeing the field and processing what's happening faster than the other guys out their. The difference between HOF and done is fractional processing. It's a given all the top 4 to 6 guys have a good enough arm. Obviously if you have great measurable and the smarts that's what you want. It's the brain processing that really matters. Tom Brady and Joe Montana processed information faster than everyone else on the field. That's why they are HOF NFL QB's with lots of rings. It wasn't because they had Josh Allen's arm.
Its so stupid to dismiss someone because of Hack. Yeah they have a few things in common. Perfect height and weight to play the position. Stronger than average arms. And nothing else other than to go overboard and say they're similar. Hack was viewed as damaged goods who possessed all the physical tools but may have been ruined by the program and lack of talent around him while Allen, like others, isnt a finished product. HUGE difference
Wentz completed 64% of his passes at least to go with the strong athletic ability. However he was injured his last year in college with a wrist fracture, then fractured a rib in preseason 2016 and suffered an ACL/LCL knee injury in 2017. He's starting to look like an egg back there. I think the Eagles should probably keep Nick Foles, given they are in a clear Super Bowl window and he's clearly capable of winning a Super Bowl if Wentz is out again.
The problem is you can look at Mayfield's tape and see things that will work in the NFL perfectly fine despite the "gimmick offense" or wildcard personality or height or what have you. Those things have nothing to do with mechanics, motion, footwork, arm strength. Where Mayfield needs clean up his footwork, Allen needs an overhaul and that can be seen on tape. Where there are questions about Mayfield being able to run a pro style offense, there is tape of Allen not being able to run a pro style offense (this doesn't mean he CAN'T it means he struggled). To me, based on film, Allen's downside looks like Mt. Vesuvius compared to Mayfield's.
I pretty much agree with the Original Poster. But the "failure" is not on the front office this offseason, the failure was in not tanking during the season. And frankly, as much as I hate to say it, that failure is as much on the fanbase as it is the front office because there were fans on this message board dancing around like we won the Super Bowl because we beat the Bills at home and were 4-5. Ownership sees things like this and says "the fans will throw a fit if we tank (even if it is clearly and definitely the smartest thing to do)" and runs Josh McCown out there for a whole season so we don't finish dead last. Well guess what? The best thing for the franchise would have been to finish dead last (or even 3rd from the bottom instead of 6th from the bottom).
Oklahoma's offense had more pre-snap/post snap reads than Wyoming's did. Spread or not, it was more complex than Wyoming's scaled back "pro style" offense". Mayfield had more pre-snap responsibilities than Allen did at Wyoming. He's also one of the best redzone passers in this draft class, you can't disguise your weaknesses on the short field.
Good post. In fairness he plays QB like a linebacker sometimes. He's going to have to reign himself in or he will be done. I think the Eagles will keep Foles until Wentz is fully healthy and has tapered back his style. I think the Eagles would be nuts to dump Foles in this window when they have him tied up pretty cheap for 1 more year.
Yep, I've seen this. Perfect example of his issues, go to 1:48 on this clip. Wide open receiver, waits too long, throws off balance and throws a horrible pick in the redzone.
This is tamed a bit from your earlier post. You insinuated he needed to read Dick and Jane, so yeah i took it as you questioned his smarts. And we have no idea how smart he is or how smart Wentz was before he was drafted. Also constantly comparing anyone to Wentz is wrong. Hes not the normal QB draft pick. He came on and took massive strides much faster than anyone had a right to expect. Hard to say that any of the top prospects should be expected to achieve what Wentz did in year 1 and 2. Smarts are important but lets put it as football smarts. You need to be able to break down film, break down Ds, all the things a QB needs to master and decipher quickly, I agree. Being brilliant in other disciplines doesn't guarantee football smarts or success.
I've seen the same thing even at the Combine. It's a little scary. Worried that he cant process things other than in stages as a play progresses too. We've been looking at that since Idzik showed up. 'Arm talent' is the catch phrase now. Arm strength does not equate to arm talent. Just hope our brass has better info and insight than any of us here
I see nothing thats guaranteed in his tape. You're just ignoring everything, listing the issues and saying they arent important or translate to the NFL. If that were true he would be the consensus number 1 QB, player, in the draft. Not the consensus number 4 QB. Also dont say ridiculous things like Allen needs a complete overhaul of his footwork, because that says you dont watch the QBs. These over the top reviews of what people think they see or want to see is what drives me crazy.
At the NFL level neither Mayfield or Allen should be in the conversation for a top 5 to 10 pick. They fact that one or both may go ahead of Barkley and Chubb is insane. The one thing I'll say for Mayfield is I could see him at worst being a good spot starter and backup in the NFL for years. Allen downside could look a lot like Browning Nagle. The only reason these two guys are in the conversation is there are about 10 to 12 Elite NFL QB's and 32 teams. This is need based drafting at its worst.
Not true. Your kidding yourself if you think running that offense is more complex than a pro offense.
You see nothing that's guaranteed in his tape, I do. You think I'm ignoring every negative, I think you're ignoring every positive. It's one big circle that isn't leading us anywhere. Also just type the words "Josh Allen footwork" into the google machine and you'll see how NOT over-the-top I'm being.
