That's what keeps me awake at night. I think Josh Allen will be the pick. Darnold will go #1. Barkley #2. Allen has no concussion history like Rosen. Mayfiled with his demeanor putting him in New York could be problematic. The paparazzi, the girls, the back pages. So Macc will take the choirboy from Cali, that can't hit the ocean from a beach in Malibu.
I think that's fair. And please note my post wasn't directed at you or any specific poster. I wouln't even consider you part of the contingent i'm referring to. If one of them ends up sitting at 6...you could end up being right. I'm just convinced that after the dust settles all 4 are gone by 6...and could be another gone by pick 20. There are alot of QB desperate teams at later points in the draft..I would expect at least one more big move up...possibly 2 by draft night. 2 of those teams could be division rivals in similar macro level predicaments as us. I can't fault MAC for avoiding sitting on his hands.
Exactly. I think everyone agrees that we desperately need a QB. This class has some highly rated QBs, and we are now in a position to get one. If Mayfield/Allen is still there at 6, we are going to hear a lot of bitching around here but we just blew up the top of the draft and everything will reshuffle behind us. Trading up to #3 was the safe route as it guarantees that we get a QB since it was highly probable that 4 QBs would be gone by the time we picked at 6. Getting "stuck" with Chubb, Barkley, or Fitzpatrick at #6 does absolutely nothing for us as QB play is our biggest weakness and has been for a long time. Putting our faith in Bridgewater, McCown and a lower rated rookie is laughable. For those lamenting giving up 3 2nd round picks, consider the first (#5), the two seconds, the fourth, the sixth, and the seventh round picks we've spent drafting disaster QBs in the past 9 years. Our second round history is also generally garbage so IMO we gave up lottery tickets to insure that we get a potential franchise QB. I'm sure that every self-proclaimed draft guru on this site is busily watching "tape" (i.e. Youtube videos and Path to the Draft) of the prospects and declaring their undying love/hate for each QB, with the hope that they can later claim they were right about who to draft or not draft. I don't value their opinions over guys whose jobs are on the line to make this decision. Let the FO and the scouts do their job and pray like Hell that they get it right. The bottom line from all this is that WE NEED A GODDAMN QB. Support your team and whoever they draft and maybe this team will head in a more positive direction.
Good post. Mac's moving up for a QB could be out of desperation because he failed to sign Cousins and because Hack didn't work out. I'd like to think that he had planned all along on this being the year he took a QB in the draft or signed Cousins, but that's a bit of a stretch even for me. I think he wanted a QB earlier. He had no shot at Winston or Mariota in the 2015 draft, so he traded up for Petty in the 4th round of that draft, hoping that in Gailey's offense he might develop. I'm guessing that Mac had no idea that Gailey was gonna retire at that point. Since the Jets didn't have an entrenched starter or a QB to fit Gailey's offense, trading for Fitz was a good short-term move. Then Mac found out that Gailey was quitting, and Petty hadn't developed much, so he tried to trade up in the 2016 draft for Goff or Wentz, but failed, so he took Hack. Even though there were some very good to decent QB prospects in the 2017 draft (Mahomes, Watson, Trubisky, Webb, Kizer, and Peterman), Mac didn't draft one. We don't know for certain whether that was solely due to the fact that he hadn't given up on either Hack or Petty, if he didn't really like any of the QBs that much, if it was some combination of the two, he knew that Cousins might be available this year and/or that there would be some QB prospects that he really liked in the 2018 draft, or whether he was that much in love with Adams and Maye. So while I think we can be fairly certain that it wasn't his long-term goal from 2015 to get his QB in 2018, I think he could have possibly adjusted his plan last offseason, but more likely, it was during the end of last season that he started formulating his plan for getting a QB this offseason. The Albert Breer article seems to support this. Through scouting, he knew that there were gonna be some very good QB prospects in this draft, and so that became his Plan A for fixing the QB spot and Woody totally agreed with the plan. Then he found out that Cousins was definitely going to be available, and that became Plan A, and drafting a QB became plan B. Then he saw that Teddy had become available. I think he then decided that if he failed to sign Cousins his backup plan was to sign both McCown and Teddy and draft a QB. Since Teddy is only 25, is very talented, and has two solid years of starting experience, that would give him two chances to find a FQB. It also signifies that he's definitely giving up on one or both of Petty and Hack. Since he drafted Hack higher, Hack is younger, and was drafted one year later than Petty, Hack is probably the one he'll keep (and stash on the PS) if he decides to keep one of the two. I know you love Rosen, but I really don't think he will last in the NFL over 2-3 seasons. If it isn't his concussions, it will be his shoulder or knee, or constantly being banged up. I just don't think he has the build to take a constant pounding in the NFL. I like him, but he vacillates between my 2nd and 3rd choice. Darnold scares me as well for several reasons. One, is his throwing motion which could lead to a lot of batted down passes and interceptions, and supposedly it's very difficult if not impossible for QBs to totally change that at the NFL level. Two, he's only had 1 1/2 seasons of collegiate starting experience. Three, regardless if his hands are small or whatever, he doesn't take care of the football. He fumbles it too often and throws too many interceptions. Four, is the history of USC QBs in the NFL. While I don't dismiss players from certain schools immediately, as I think that's illogical. The fact remains, however, that USC QBs have been pretty bad or haven't had a lot of success in the NFL. Carson Palmer is by far the best. The others that had some level of success were Rob Johnson, Rodney Peete, and Mark Sanchez. There have been too many like Matt Leinart, Matt Barkley, Todd Marinovich, and Cody Kessler. Collegiate QBs with little starting experience also take longer to develop, and there's a greater chance that they won't develop. That's why I had zero interest in Trubisky last year. He had only one year of starting experience. Allen scares me because of his bust potential and accuracy issues. Also, some get so mesmerized by his arm strength and some of the incredible throws he makes, that they go blind to his shortcomings. There's no doubting that he has the highest ceiling IF he develops, but it's a big question as to whether he will develop. Mayfield imo is the safest QB prospect in the draft, and who, as you say, "has every trait you want in a FQB except he doesn't have "ideal" height, but I believe this won't be an issue." If he were 6'4", played in an NFL-style offense with his production in college, leadership and intangibles, I think he would be the consensus #1 pick in the draft. Nobody would even be talking about his immaturity or questioning his character. If Mac's job is truly on the line if he doesn't secure a FQB for the Jets, then imo his only sane option is to take Mayfield at #3 if he's there. Mayfield and Rosen are the most NFL ready. Mayfield has to learn to take snaps from under center and learn the WCO drops, but I don't think that will be any problem for him. The thing that he and the other rookie QBs will struggle most with is learning to read the more complex NFL Ds and spot blitzes. With his 4 years of starting experience, poise and football IQ, I think that Mayfield will do that without too much trouble, especially with Bates, Teddy and McCown there to help him.
I don't fault Mac for doing what he thinks is best and being aggressive....I would never criticize someone for that. I just believe that in this specific situation, it was the wrong way to go even though I get why he's doing it and why people are happy about it I would have been totally fine with 5 QBs and Barkley (best player in the draft) and it's not like we're moving to number 1 to get our guy. We're paying in my eyes a hefty price to get maybe our 3rd choice instead of our 6th choice in a QB heavy draft. IDK, just seems strange but maybe he has a plan and/or has a good idea who's going ahead of us. I also don't like the narrative that because we have had 2nd round picks bust a good amount, they really aren't worth much. It's complete garbage and just like any draft pick, you need to make the right decisions. 2nd round picks can be traded for pro-bowlers in some cases as well. If he lands us a franchise QB at 3 it was definitley worth it, but I just thought that at 6 we had probably just as good of a chance of that happening anyway OR the best player in the draft was falling into our lap
You're a brave one for putting that thought out there like some others but I think that's a possibility also. Barkley is without question the best player on the board. If he falls to the Jets I can see them using that as a bargaining chip with the Browns to swap picks - I would dare bet thought that they do not want to drop down too much with the risk of missing out on a blue chip. Maybe Denver at 5 - they can still grab one of the 2 QB's remaining , Allen or Mayfield.
It depnds upon your disposition as to how the QBs are tiered. Some view this as 2 elite QBS. Some have 3 and some even have 4. Then there are a few rare people that have 5. If your in the last boat then staying at 6 makes more sense. Otherwise it is smart to trade up and get one of the QBs you value. By the Jets trade-up it seems clear they either believe there are either 3 or 4 top tier QBs.
I'm of the view that there are 2 elite QBs right now--but that one of them is such an injury risk that he is not a valid choice in the top 15. And neither of the two is a sure thing by a long shot. I like Rosen better than Darnold, but I wouldn't pick him because I believe he's one hard hit to the head away from retirement right now. Darnold has jacked up mechanics that probably can't be fixed--but I think his floor is somewhere around Ryan Tanehill range, so he's worth the risk. Based on talent, Allen might be the best QB ever or, more likely, he'll be the next Kyle Boller. Maybe he's worth the risk but, more likely, not. Mayfield might be great, too. But in all of NFL history, how many guys have overcome being short and been successful at QB? 4? 5? Okay, so it's possible. Now, how many college QBs that came out of the spread have successfully transitioned to the NFL game? 6? 8? That's possible, too. It starts looking like a serious long shot that he overcomes both issues. I don't think that's a wise bet for the #3 overall pick--certainly not with what we had to trade to get there. It's not that I think the Jets shouldn't do whatever it takes to get a QB-- THEY SHOULD-- It's just that I don't see that Mayfield or Allen are that much more likely to be successful in the NFL than Rudolph, Jackson, White, or Faulk. Mayfield and Allen have higher ceilings, but their floors are just as low or worse.
Allen's floor is as low as the other QBs you mentioned, but not Mayfield's. Do you know how hard it is to walk on at two major football schools, win over the HC and win the starting job? Mayfield did that and he has a chip on his shoulder and a burning desire to be the best. He is the safest QB in the draft imo.
I hope so, brother, because I suspect we'll end up with the man. I'm just saying that his height is one major barrier, and coming from the spread is a second major barrier. Overcoming both of those at the same time is damn near impossible. If I were a GM, I wouldn't bet my career on anybody doing that.
One of the things that I enjoyed about watching Darnold, and am enjoying about re-watching the combine is the comments. It's why I would've been on board going say Chubb but getting Jackson. The point is that the NFL is a different league now. It's hard to judge these guys from the old games viewpoint. The teams are starting to curve their philosophy to meet the QB's talent. The other thing is that watching these guys live is a completely different thing than watching video.. All of them said they were surprised at Mayfield's performance in person. Also, the meetings with these guys and how they do in them is a big part of this thing. So I don't buy some of the declarations here that some of these guys are busts or not good prospects. But who knows in the end? But the point you and Koop are making are not invalid. They're rolling the dice a little here to grab a guy with talent.
I hope so, too! I'm not worried about his height/size. People have been doubting him because of his lack of size his whole football career, and he has continually succeed and proven them wrong. I think he will once again. Learning the WCO, the drops, and reading Ds and blitzes will be his bigger challenges imo. He's smart, has shown that he can go through progressions, and was pretty much a master of the offense at Oklahoma. I think he will do the same in the NFL.
Russell Wilson Super Bowl champion (XLVIII) 4× Pro Bowl (2012, 2013, 2015, 2017) Pro Bowl Offensive MVP (2015) NFL passer rating leader (2015) NFL passing touchdowns leader (2017) NFL Rookie of the Year (2012; Pepsi,[1] PFF[2]) First-team All-Big Ten (2011) First-team All-ACC (2008) Second-team All-ACC (2010) Passer rating: 98.8 TD–Int: 161–56 Completion %: 64.0 Passing yards: 22,176 Rushing yards: 3,275 Rushing touchdowns: 16 height 5ft 11" Would you take him ?
there are exceptions to every rule. he is an exception. Qbs of mayfields size, generally don't have sucess in the NFL. Wilson also came to a team with a top 5 defense (which means he never has to really play from behind) and an excellent run game (teams stacking the box for lynch)
Being realistic about it, Jackson was never in the discussion. Now, it looks like there will be four QBs taken in the first five picks, with Barkley being the other pick. If you would’ve been cool taking Chubb or Nelson, I can understand your concern, but I think to get any of the top 4 QBs (Jackson doesn’t seem like an option), we had to trade up. Personally, I’d only be happy if we got Rosen and I can live with everyone else but that’s who I hope the Jets select
Height is definitely a concern, but coming out the spread a major barrier? What are you talking about?
The Jets are not taking Baker Mayfield with the #3 overall pick. That's my absolute lock of the week prediction
Yes. I was a big Russell Wilson fan all the way through (I am one of an unknowably small group who attended at least one of his home games in both Raleigh and Madison). But, he played in Pro-style offense at both NC State and Wisconsin--so half of the two challenges I described for Baker didn't exist for Russell, and height alone still scared off every team in the league until pick 75 overall, which is entirely different than 3 overall.
Your point of view on Mayfield would be insubmissible in a court of law, you are utterly biased enough to proclaim him earlier in the week as "talentless" or words to that affect, so it is pointless getting into a discussion about it with you , your mind ain't gonna change and whereas I would prefer Barkley at 6 lol and still maybe at 3 (looks about quickly for safe places to hide) I won't complain at Rosen or Darnald, not sure about Allen but out of the QB's I think Mayfield will be best for us. They all have pluses and minuses and as ever the draft is a gamble, finding a FQB is a major gamble.
