If the above post were to verify, it looks like the heaviest banding will setup in NE Jersey..into NYC and southern CT. HUGE IF...but that's what this models says. In fact...looking at other models...that would be a forecast I would go with. Now areas north and west of that will still get really good snows...but when you see a forecast where it says 10-15 locally more..that area would be the locally more.
and being the moron I am...I put down nyc as where the heaviest banding will be. While that might come true, if any storm will ever accumulate in NYC ...this would be it. If this one doesn't...it cant stick in NYC period after March 1.
And thinking about what an idiot the NYC mayor is...I'm going to say he cancels schools because he lucked out the first time..and this would make him look brilliant with this storm. LETS SEE.
The thing about cancelling school in NYC is that most paren't treat it as day care. If school is closed they have to take a day off of work and many folks just can't afford to do that or work jobs that penalize them. As dumb as DeBlasio is, he understands the roles that NYC schools play. It's a tough spot to be in, much for difficult than say Long Island or Jersey.
Jay I am looking at current radar and damn I know much of this is virga and not making it to the ground but by appearance alone ----that looks way more North than I thought it would be . I thought it might make it as far North as Bklyn or Queesns or Staten Island,,,I would be pretty shocked if this made it into NYC let alone up here but it sure looks close ?
Fred Im not sure if he understands anything,,,,I mean even though the last storm busted and headed East there was nothing and I mean nothing at the time he made his call to tell you me or him that was going to happen in fact all indications were that a bad storm WAS indeed coming --- he got very lucky with the last one. Those kids still have to get on busses or travel home along with the teachers and everything else involved should A STORM actually hit.
With each new snow map I am feeling better and better about my location. I don’t think much is making it my way.
Me too, but for different reasons. Long Island is gonna get hammered and I work at a school. Win for me
FJAY what are u looking at ? ps N n W ,,,gotta keep an eye on it,,right now central NJ looks like the bullseye but that is meaningless----all models this morning look like solid hits,,,slight shift N n W and you are in the bigger # 's ,,,,heck I could be close to a foot depending on track , and you are not tooo far west of me
Totally agree sir. Its huge everywhere when you have to make that decision but in NYC its multiplied because the city keeps going. People in the city work. I get that..it is a tough call.
Timing will also be a big part of any decision and this storm wants to do a lot of damage AFTER schools start. It wants to changeover from the city on east after school starts and most models want to bring the hard stuff in well before schools close. Where I come from it would be a no-brainer early dismissal. NYC and colleges are a different call for reasons you stated. Early dismissal would be the call I would go for...but that's playing with some fire because give or take, that would happen around noon...and by noon, IF the models are correct..it should be heavy snow. Remember...for the Metro NYC area, the second storm..the big one...may start as a mix but will turnover soon after.
CMC map..again..potential...but ...oh man. I'm not playing this down but struggle borderline temps in the last third of March. Still..it says what it says: CMC: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2018032012/gem_asnow_neus_8.png
My brother lives in West LI, and just called on his way to work saying theyre gonna get hammered... he works for JetBlue, and they're already putting him up in a hotel for the night we're under a tornado watch here.
Jay all guidance so far this morning is on board,,,Nam,12k,Ukiemet, Euro,Gfs,Rgem,HRDPS,CMC, all say big hits,,,,I know I know still time but I am starting to lean,,,,,,I know I know 24 hours to go but,,,,,,,but,,,,wow
Latest gfs and nam 12k both have a hard cut off right at 84. Nws just downgraded me from warning to winter weather advisory. Feeling pretty good c
Ukie ( my personal favorite ) just came out and its a BOMB----still time but Im all in this is gonna be big and A SLIGHT tick west and numbers get bigger,,ps NWS just said 15 for my area
ha thanks, but I'm not worried about it..... tornado warning on the otherhand.... like driving through one spawned by hurricane Irma. My poor little truck hasnt been the same since
