Brees is short but his release point is over the top and a lot higher than Mayfield's. Wilson had a wealth of experience in pro style systems coming in where he read defenses and learned to adjust passing windows. Wilson is a unicorn, not the norm Mayfield played in a spread system where passing angles are more naturally created. I'm not saying he's a lost cause but you wouldn't know a damn thing about football if you weren't concerned about how Mayfield is going to avoid getting his passes batted down. Everyone has potential weaknesses - this has gotta be Mayfields biggest
Yea, Just look at how Hackenberg's height has helped him! Not one single ball batted down at the NFL level yet.
1) Part of the reason you see him throwing to wide open wide receivers is because of pre snap reads and good decision making. One of the criticisms that Mayfield actually gets often is sometimes he refuses to pull the trigger and will occasionally pass on a receiver that is otherwise open. Even though he has a reputation for "hero ball", his conservative nature means he's not forcing it into tight coverage needlessly and taking reckless chances. He will throw into tight windows when necessary, and do so well, but avoids it if unnecessary. For context, INTs divided by Pass ATT (career): Mayfield - 0.020 Rosen - 0.022 Darnold - 0.026 Allen - 0.032 2) Throwing out of bounds is a mature choice for QBs to make. How often did we watch Geno and Sanchez not throw it out of bounds and end up making a terrible mistake instead? This is a good thing. 3) Running around is one thing Mayfield does exceptionally well. He's far and away the most accurate QB in this class when moving out of the pocket. This skill also happens to directly coincide with Bates will have do the Jets. He runs in order to pass, which is preferable to QBs who prefer to take off at the first sign of trouble. He's great at keeping his eyes downfield when moving around. 4) Mayfield DOES take a lot of sacks. You are absolutely right about this. This is partially a result of Mayfields moving around, and also because he doesn't quite have the size to shrug off would be tacklers like Darnold can. Here are the sack numbers: For context, Sacks divided by Pass Attempts (career): Darnold: 0.041 Rosen: 0.046 Mayfield: 0.071 Allen: 0.076 As an added note to the sack numbers, even though Darnold holds the top spot, he is completely careless with the ball. Really, Rosen is the winner of not getting sacked and not fumbling. Even being the "winner", he still managed to take two concussions last year. Here are the fumble stats of each player: For context, fumbles divided by pass attempts plus rush attempts (career): Mayfield: 0.012 Allen: 0.015 Rosen: 0.016 Darnold: 0.021
Brock Osweiller is 18 feet tall and led the league in batted passes two seasons ago I believe. But I get that it's about release point. I never really viewed his release point as much of a negative and thought it was pretty consistent and high. Of course there are worries about Mayfield, but this was just about arm strength and getting the ball over the line.
Read somewhere Rivers has the most batted down passes and he's 6'5". With respect to this, release angle is going to play more of a factor.
Height isn’t a direct predictor of batted passes. Mayfield has a great quote out there that I can’t seem to find about constantly drifting around the pocket to find passing lanes and how many taller quarterbacks don’t do it because they don’t feel the need to, and it results in them having THEIR passes batted more often.
obviously Hackenberg has a lot more issues than how he gets the ball out. I'm not really sure how your comment is relevant to this conversation. I don't have anything against short QBs. As a matter of fact, I like them. Who wouldn't? Its fun. I hope Mayfield succeeds in the NFL. But he's a shade over 6 feet and he throws at a 3/4 angle. That's just the truth. You have to be concerned about how he's going to make that work in the NFL. Because you can be damn sure every single opponent is going to put their hands up and NFL passing windows are going to be a lot smaller than he was used to anyway.
Also, I'll reiterate this point again. The average NFL lineman is less than .5" taller than the average collegiate lineman. It's not like Mayfield is going to come in to the NFL and have to work behind Yao Ming. Also to Mayfield's point, no one is going to see over a 6'8" left tackle.
PFF: Baker Mayfield had 5 passes batted down over the last 3 years. Josh Rosen had 10 passes batted down THIS season.
Neither were a 1st round pick. Mayfield is taller than Wilson. Wilson's lower body makes Mayfield look like a twig. Brees plays in a dome and has a brain.
That's not nitpicking, that is the NFL. Its a literal game of inches. The DB on that play was very close to deflecting that pass. He always throws to the open receiver and that's not necessarily a bad thing, but I do question the # of NFL throws. Is he better then Russel Wilson coming out? I don't think so. Only a few coaches today implement that sort of offense and they all come from the Andy Reid coaching tree. I really don't know what to expect from Josh Allen. You need great coaching for him to succeed.
Interesting, did that stat come from playing on the same teams against similar competition? What does Mayfield's projected stats look like on UCLA and Rosens on OK? Do stats that aren't remotely related to each other have any significance? Does college football stats even remotely matter? Does the combine scream NFL GM's are gay?
Mayfield played in the spread, Rosen didn't. Of course thats how their college stats are. You don't have to be a genius to figure out if the defense is more "spread" out, its easier to see/throw it over the line. unfortunately Mayfield isn't going to have that luxury in the NFL. When he realizes "s---t its not Kansas anymore" (or excuse me Oklahoma), it isn't gonna make a damned difference what PFF had for his college stats now is it?
The spread offense involves a ton of quick passes over the middle, including slants and hitches right over the line.
His biggest problems with footwork are when he works from under center and has to drop back. Something he didn't have to worry about at Oklahoma.
This is a little simplified. He does have footwork issues from under center, was obvious at the combine. He's a product of a gimmick system that makes QBs produce numbers. Or is it him? That's the question. Remember Landry Jones? Check his Oklahoma numbers, where is he? He never had to do things like look off defensive back to throw open a WR. One read and wheel routes are fine in Oklahoma but not the NFL. And it's not that he's not 6' 4", it's that he's not 6" 1", few make it at that height. Not saying he can't but it increases the risk at 3
Right... and as I was saying before, there are teams that run 75% of their plays from the shotgun. Is there any reason we couldn't do close to the same and play into our QBs strengths? It would make sense. Also... another reason why I'd go Mayfield over Allen... Mayfield has footwork problems from under center, Allen has footwork problems just playing quarterback.
