Johnny I like your optimism --my kid has his Jr Prom Wednesday night and I am rooting hard for this storm to NOT HAPPEN ----if it does I look forward to egging Brooks house
Ok Snow Guys... Knock it off already! It's almost April for chrissakes and they're calling for more snow tomorrow and this weekend.. Enough is enough! Let Spring happen!!! /rant over
Cman just so everyones anger is directed in the right place and NOT AT ME ----I do not want this one !!! but again the damn Inlaw factor is always there---I knew it I effing knew it
Cman nothing would give me more pleasure right now than logging onto the fishing thread and reading about you yachting and catching the big ones
lol....you are great cbg. Don't think the anger is at you. It happens every year...especially with a fishing guy like the CMAN. Don't blame him at all but come the end of March, the fishermans blood begins to boil. I get it. Its coming my man CMAN!! Somehow, March will go out like a lamb...its coming my friend. As far as this storm, boy oh boy...amazingly models have trended north but want to give our friends south of us the bigger snows. Listen to me...I'm talking like I'm still there...want to see what excites those in the south? One second..will post the "hazardous outlook" for Wilmington, N.C.
This the crap I have to deal with...get the shovels ready...close down the airports...the NWS for Wilmington, N.C. has just issued this very scary outlook: NWS Wilmington, N.C. Hazardous Weather Outlook Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Wilmington NC 418 AM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018 NCZ099-106>110-SCZ032-033-039-054>056-058-059-200830- Columbus-Coastal Pender-Inland New Hanover-Coastal New Hanover- Inland Brunswick-Coastal Brunswick-Florence-Marion-Williamsburg- Coastal Horry-Inland Georgetown-Coastal Georgetown-Central Horry- Northern Horry- 418 AM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and northeast South Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Wintry precipiation possible Wednesday night. A frost or a freeze is possible early Thursday morning and Friday morning. This is for possible rain SHOWERS mixing with snow. Want my mommy.
Brook --------> In other news Chickens laying eggs as I type ps CBG kids and their friends have been working on arm strength and thus far have tremendous velocity !!!
JAY oh Jay ? FJay ? anyone ? So does the 1st wave on Tuesday give many a good dump and then STALL ? Does it combine or merge with wave # 2 on Wednesday ? It looks like it could and it appears from the NAM that much of this is Sleet on Tuesday along the coast,,,,but will temperatures be colder than depicted on the NAM ??????????? amounts on NAM could be wrong ,,,no ??? but some of those # s are kinda stupid high on Tuesday---should we trust the Nam for amounts or track or both or neither ? Im going with Track as it has done okay this winter with complicated solutions but not these # s it just spit out ---pick up the white phone guys
The models are indicating 2 systems total. Hmmmm...not sure. NAM generally has a cold bias but I don't believe temps will be the issue for mixing/sleet/ice more then the time of year. If this were January, even the temps depicted would be just fine at 32 or even 34. Dynamics again will help. Winds seem to gust in the 30s to as high as 50s for L.I. Now the tricky part....this has baby stepped closer and closer to the north and I believe the models are not quite finished with even a more slightly northern trend. If this ends up being the case...HUGE IF....I cant even guess what totals will be. NNJ....5-8? Long Island more but it cant happen because of difficulty to get accumulations with border temps and the time of year? Hate to be vague on this one but all day today will have to really watch what the models do...starting with the GFS AT 1130 and the EURO AT 2PM. NAM? It wants to bring the snows more north but lets see if others latch on even more. Bottom line if today was January 8th...it would be a 6-12 prediction depending on location...south more north less...but its not...its March 19th and start times..does it snow harder in daylight hours or night? Really tough call and I wouldn't go there right now.
Latest GFS...now its high in some spots...others are high in other spots...several want to bring into ct with the big numbers...and everywhere you read, there is talk about how the models are beginning to align...and I'm going to tell you now...nonsense. Whether its too much or not much at all, this storm will bring huge busts. HUGE. Cant tell you where that will be but these print outs make no sense at all. Example, look at the Trenton NJ area with those heavy numbers...then it lightens up big time in North Jersey...only to dump heavy numbers in CT. Makes no sense. either that will follow north...or areas north will get not much at all. Truly makes no sense. http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=353371
Everyone has there preference for model,,,,,Nam has been kind of dependable with dynamics,,,,I just don't trust the Euro nowadays,,,,,I really have liked the UKIE its coming out now or soon--CMC been ok,,,Rgem is within its wheelhouse no ?---GFS = not trustworthy but an agreement with most or a majority would be nice
That cutoff is the reason for the busts...because even people around the cutoff will not get the dynamics...the help with sticking and cold air...don't know. Gut tells me the bust will be for those in the high numbers not getting there. Those with the lower numbers not getting there either. Lets see the short term models tonight.
Jay If it snows more than 6 inches in Madison I will sacrifice CBG to Snow Gods so we don't get anymore snow.
