Temps will be key,,,,but either way they are showing a long duration,,,,ugh,,,,this is one I did not want----Jr Prom night for the kids this week
The reason I stated above about not putting too much into accumulations this early but looking for potential is because once you see potential, the accumulations follow. That's whats now happened with the GFS model. 2 days ago it showed a wet decent storm with snows very far off the coast...today it shows this. GFS MODEL: http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=352820 If this comes true....it would be historical for March. Lets face it, it does have this kind of potential. This storm will be around for 48 hours once it starts. Time to start taking this puppy serious. Both GFS and EURO have this kind of bomb and its now 4 days away. 4 days is the amount of time I have noticed in the past when agreement is with models...something close to this SHOULD happen. Again...tomorrow at this time something could change...but right now? I think the only thing that could change is the north/south direction of the heaviest snows...and...importantly, whether rain gets introduced.
GEM MODEL: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2018031612/gem_asnow_neus_25.png Showing a more south track but still huge numbers for many. A 6 hour look at the GFS...notice the huge H above the great lakes..thats your cold source..absent from the past 3 storms. More fuel to the fire GFS: http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=352822 Notice on that one also the bright yellows and oranges off the coast of NC. That will be the main storm...storm in this picture just south of OHIO will throw its energy to the coast of N.C. Not looking to good right now for those that want to be done with winter. Another saving grace is the this is a classic Miller B storm...which I despise to try and forecast. They do bust...and rarely do the do EXACTLY whats modeled as far as track.
Hey Jay....what is this looking like for Long Island. I know I keep asking, but as long as I work at a university, I have a lot of people wondering what's gonna happen. Thanks so much!
FJAY,,,,,This will not head out to sea,,,,,I wish it would,,,,its gonna ride up the damn coast,,,tell me Im wrong oh great and powerful Jayster,,,, pay no attention to that man behind the curtain !!
Last euro kept the northern ull in place long enough to ride it out to sea. Outlier? New trend? Tune in 12 hours from now and find out. Worrying about the timing now . Misspoke in that vacation post. Leaving next week.hopefully it’s clear by Thursday nite
This is going to be a huge question mark until sometime tomorrow evening. Even then, nailing areas will be still be tough. Feel like the models are looking at the incomings and freaking out a bit. This possible 4 low pressures or one big low? Never seen 4 different low pressures but the models go there from time to time. FJF is correct....suppression is a possibility and its all because THIS storm actually has a real cold source...high pressure.
I understand. I always tell my friends (who think I know what I'm talking about because I just parrot everything the much smarter people on here say), that imagine your a weatherperson and everysingle person in the tri state are wants to know exactly what's going to happen on their block. You'd go mad. Whenver you can give LI a look, I'd appreciate it.
I hope we don't get hit to bad with the white stuff but on the plus side we are past mid March so eventually this(snow/cold) will end soon.
I love the winter but I am done with it now. Good news is the 18zgfs takes it out to sea like the last euro did. Not staying up for the 00z’s but tomorrow should be interesting as far as model runs go
Overnight models say South,,,,,,lots of people throwing the suppressed word around,,,,,still 3 days to go and all I know is the models will change again and again. Im not sure what I would prefer 3 days out for them to say what they are saying now that its South or them to say Bullseye ? I am kinda of leaning towards wanting to be in the Bullseye right now, WHY ? Because it would change and by Tuesday night we would not be in the Bullseye,,,,,models still have to grasp whats going on a lot of dynamics here ,,,,,,I still say its coming up the coast , why u ask ? Because its hard to get suppression this time of year and much like Fjay with his moving day storm I don't want this one either > ps I have the inlaw factor = inlaws are here and it almost always snows when they are here. Give me rain or nothing at all and IF WE GET ICE be prepared to get egged Brook ,,lol
Harris the Euro and GFS ,, if looking at a map ,have this thing coming from West to East and sliding to our South as in missing NYC and possible farther to our South,,,,,,this "could" ( Jayster rule # 5 = never speak in absolutes ,,,,lol ) change with other model runs with 3 days left nothing( South today much more North tomorrow ) is written in stone. Jayster and Fjay have bought up the word suppression which would be exactly what the overnight runs were showing but I think the models are having a real hard time as they have all winter with the dynamics and the vortex involved with this particular storm,,,,,nothing written in stone this AINT south of us yet with 3 days to go it needs to be watched .
It does look south but I wouldn't put too much stock in that until lets say...Sunday night. Have seen this before and then it ticks back north...BUT...you cant dismiss many models show a more south trip for this one. Will not be around today...playing a round of golf!
Don't over exert yourself on the links,,,,,,,ps globals have sucked all year ,,3 days to go OCEANS of time,,,,ps address the ball "hello ball "
