Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

Dynamics would play a factor in temps...this, while borderline...I'm not even diving into the temps. That jump you see is a comparison between the models 6 hours ago and then the current run. It shows more west...but the precip shield is about the same except a bit more for you diving south into NE Jersey.

 

I saw that...and still, I just don't see the "merge" happening early enough for lets say all of NNJ. Again, you? Its getting close...what could be a 4-7 event could be higher? Wont really be able to tell until that band to the NW of the center of circulation takes hold...and that may not be until very late overnight.

Tight call but unless a real surprise...still think you are in the 4 to 7 range.

 

Think so Jon...but again, a more east track (which is very possible) could mean the lower side if not lower...just that many of the short term models keep adding a few inches at a time for your area.

 

That's the EURO model Brook...I mean...I just don't see it. I just don't see a big amount for west of I95 in Jersey.

 

Here is the latest NAM

JON...as you can see...I know your location bud and you can see on this map IF IT WERE TO VERIFY...how close you are to skating by with not nothing much...to getting hammered again. This map? I like this map. It makes the most sense to me.

NAM: http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=352294

EDIT: UPDATED MAP....now Jon you can see how you can get 4...and how close you are to getting 10

 

This is a great..and I mean a GREAT map to show what I'm talking about with banding....ITS PERFECT.

Now...heres the map:
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=352292

Ok...notice that heavy blue band that runs from eastern L.I. through CT...into R.I. AND then the coast for NH/MAINE.

That's what we are looking for....that's what I mean when I say it depends where that heavy banding sets up.

When you hear weather forecasters say "looks like 6-10" except well over a foot in isolated locations" that's what they mean. To show the strength of this system...that aint no isolated location...that is a heavy wild band.

Hope that makes sense...its a perfect illustration

 

any kind of western trend with the outer bands. Since the storm will really be getting its act together east..maybe a tad southeast from you, you will be on the western fringe of the main event. Now if those outer bands make it all the way to NYC, you will get a pretty good thump.

Now the outer bands will have to be watched on radar AND not confused with the light/steady precip bands that will go through parts of N.J. and NYC. Like a wall...you will see those outer bands come southeast to northwest towards the Island. How far and at what strength...I know I'm not fully answering your question FM...but its that line...where it sets up. It is CURRENTLY setting up from central/eastern L.I. through CT to MA and then RI AND Maine on most models. My concern would be if several of the short term models come into play...which has almost all of LI. in the heavy precip. Just because Eastern L.I. is in the heaviest bands doesn't mean all heavy snow...they will have mixing issues to keep numbers down.

Tough call...but the story should play out overnight via the radar.

 

And I don't really believe you can use the word "firmly" for parts of L.I.. L.I. has some weird dynamics with this storm...and as usual for Long Island, there could still be some real shockers.

 

For all the areas in question brook...I have the most confidence in your area getting the low side of the prediction...or even less than that.