Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

Remember last night I was concerned (for snow lovers) about the wind....the NWS had the wind from the east the whole day...big change and the reason most will see huge snowfall numbers.

Todays forecast with huge change highlighted:
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 33. Wind chill values between 20 and 25. East wind 10 to 14 mph becoming north in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 10 to 14 inches possible.

And there it is...the reason for the higher numbers...the reason it will be a wet snow but not as wet as first predicted....so more bang for your buck accumulation wise. That's the entire story...they are now not buying the track on the coast but off the coast...and why this is no longer a huge question mark except central and eastern L.I. and perhaps the immediate coast of NJ. Not buying the the coast of NJ doesn't eventually get into higher snow numbers than predicted.

 

Hey Brook!!

You know my theory behind a wet snow...this things needs to be done at least 3 times...everytime it hits 3 or 4 inches...get it out. Now...waiting til the end? These always end earlier than predicted....ALWAYS. Saying wee hours of the morning Thursday but think its out of here..or at least the hard snows are out of here by 9 pm

 

CBG...you mirroring my account buddy? Lol...you are learning too fast my friend.

 

Looks to be dead on CBG...I would say 45 minutes to an hour for NNJ...and about an hour for you.

 

the short term models are spitting out numbers I have seen....can count them on one hand. The numbers for the afternoon are remarkable. 2 to 3" an hour with thunder snow possible. That zone seems to setup west of I95 through NNJ and into Southern NY State to CT. And its not a narrow band...its a very wide band about 40 miles west of I95. A foot now is a no-brainer....the question is does thing get to 18..or higher.

 

Heavy snows have entered nnj...BROOK...you look to be on the brink of the heavy stuff any minute.

 

Hey MP!!
Yeah...that is around the battle ground and if you can keep us updated that would help. I'm really interested to know whats happening between 1 and 3 pm for you...that will answer many questions. Don't expect too much over the next 3 hours...it will be a battle there.

 

Really tough call but initial guess is it all comes down to veracity. Wouldn't surprise for NYC to start out with a mixed bag and when this thing gets going to go all snow or snow/sleet. Does it keep numbers down if that's the case? Yeah...but it will have plenty of make up time...NYC could still get clobbered and that wouldn't surprise me in the least...still expecting it. Does it get the numbers NNJ and Lower Hudson Valley? Probably not...but could...really tough call. Anything along I95 and east is a call nobody can make and its all nowcasting.

 

For the record and just so you know how tough this is for me...currently sunny and around 50..going up to close to 60.

 

Oh..and your friends...that would be a real help seeing how they do. Models have shifted East with the center which means NYC and even parts of L.I. all the way down the Jersey coast will possibly be surprised when the transition takes place.

Havent checked out the actual forecast for NYC Manhattan....will do now.