Asking draft experts here. Has there ever been a pretty darn accurate college QB that failed in pros? Or has there ever been an inaccurate college QB turning it around in pros? Assuming football IQ is the same, how would you rate accuracy compared to say size and arm strength? If possible, can you please rank the Fab 5(Darnold, Rosen, Allen, Mayfield, Lamar Jackson) in terms of accuracy?
Statistically speaking: Mayfield - Darnold - Rosen - Jackson - Allen Mayfield and Jackson got better year over year. Rosen improved upon his freshman numbers with his junior year but his sophomore campaign was wasted due to injury. Darnold and Allen did not improve year over year or marginally improved in some categories. Here’s a list of highest completion % (college) of all time: https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/leaders/pass-cmp-pct-player-career.html Here’s a list of highest completion % (NFL) of all time: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_cmp_perc_career.htm (Pennington #2 and Cousins tied for 3rd) Not many names standout in the top 15 in college. Not many of the same names on either list which means the great QBs are improving from college to NFL. Edit. It’s funny. Cousins is 86th all time in college with 64.1 and he’s 3rd in NFL with 65.5. Dude is consistent.
Darnold, Rosen, and Mayfield have decent accuracy. Allen and Jackson are inaccurate. Accuracy is one of the only statistical predictors of NFL success, but the correlation between accuracy and NFL success isn't that strong.
If I had to pick one trait for QBs that is the most important it's arm strength. BUT...if that's all a guy has, he's almost certainly going to fail. It need to be couple with accuracy, as well as having "Football IQ (FIQ)". If a guy has all three of these he's probably going to be a winner. I place arm strength at the top because, like they say in basketball: "You can't coach height". You can't coach arm strength. Yes, you can teach a guy how to improve his arm strength, but if he isn't blessed with it, he's probably never going to have A-level strength needed for the pros. You CAN improve a guys accuracy to some degree, but by the time he's going to enter the draft I think what you see is what you get. FIQ is a big intangible, but is probably the biggest key to success in the end, but if a guy has exceptional FIQ and doesn't have the other two in the upper percentile it won't help him succeed - although he will probably make a great coach. Just my non-expert opinion.
If accuracy is measured by completion percent (don't know any other way to measure it) then you left off two of the most accurate passers considered possible 1st round selections; Mason Rudolph and Luke Falk. They both have completion percentages better than any of the five except Mayfield.
Completion % does not correlate to a QBs accuracy. So much is considered when it comes to completion %; system, etc ... You have to watch them play its really the only way to judge.
Allen's college completion % of 56.2 at Wyoming should tell Mac not to pick him if he's available at 6. At least I hope it does. Rosen Darnold Mayfield Jackson Allen
I think what 101 said is true. You can't judge accuracy on completion % alone. Maybe you can start there, but other factors have to be taken into account, such as quality of receivers, type of offense, quality of opposition, etc, otherwise you may be missing out on something good.
Geno Smith had a very high completion % in college b/c he threw a huge number of simple screens. You can't judge a QB's accuracy simply by completion %. There are other factors you need to look at.
Wouldn't least amount of interceptions factor into accuracy? Interception is due to not throwing on target. If so Mayfield is leading that category.
Not really, we see enough ints that are no where near the qbs fault. Tipped balls, bad hands, miscommunication etc. the only way to know is to watch.
