Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

Discussion in 'BS Forum' started by jaywayne12, Dec 25, 2010.

  1. Brook!

    Brook! Soft Admin...2018 Friendliest Member Award Winner

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    Snow in Chicago. Lovely day. :)
     
  2. Greenday4537

    Greenday4537 Well-Known Member

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    Some warm, South Jersey rain. No super cold days on the radar for us.
     
  3. CBG

    CBG Well-Known Member

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    Greenday----gotta keep an eye on Wednesday ,,,something is brewing,,,,too early to tell for sure but we might have Snow or even ice
     
  4. CBG

    CBG Well-Known Member

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    Wednesday could be rain , it could be snow or it could be downright ugly and be ice,,,,,stay tuned ---thoughts
     
  5. FJF

    FJF 2018 MVP Joe Namath Award Winner

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    It’s been trending colder as it gets closer. I think the rain/snow line sets just south of nyc
    Even cman might get a piece of this one.
    Looks like 5-8 for me working down to 3-6 for the city,north jersey, eastern part of Pennsylvania.
    Good set up on this one.
     
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  6. FJF

    FJF 2018 MVP Joe Namath Award Winner

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    all right, may have been to generous with the snow. 84 could be the line. c, you could be in for a big mess
     
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  7. CBG

    CBG Well-Known Member

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    Fjay,,,,,I was with you and thought It would be 84 or more north,,,,,,,,BUT------I literally just watched Bernie Raynos video did you see it ? He thinks the snow comes down hard sooner than later and he thinks the cold air sticks around longer as well,,,,,he was talking about the rain snow line setting up much further south than advertised and also taking longer to get to me and you and the rest of the kids on this thread . He was not certain about the changeover as far as when it would be ice but maybe we get a better idea tomorrow/ nite---thoughts
     
  8. FJF

    FJF 2018 MVP Joe Namath Award Winner

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    yea i saw that, then i was checking the 18z nams and gfs and the line seems to be creeping back north a bit. not doubting bernie, just thinking this looks about right
     
  9. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    You could have been right the first time. Just checked the NWS forecast and will post below. Yesterday it said a transition to all rain for north jersey...and and had 2-4" before the transition. Today..well...let me post it and tell you how I would read it:

    Snow, freezing rain, and sleet before noon, then rain, snow, and sleet between noon and 1pm, then rain after 1pm. High near 37. Wind chill values between 15 and 25. East wind 6 to 8 mph becoming southeast in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

    First off a high of 37 which is 3 degrees colder than their post yesterday. Yeah...a bit lower in precip but a ton of mixing and not just plain snow. That would tell me that the precip expected will be heavier..and those north of NNJ might be in for a surprise before the transition. Seems like it comes in fast and furious. Wouldn't surprise me if in the first 3 hours many see heavy precip.

    Will check in later

    EDIT: Check the winds predicted for tomorrow and that will tell you the problem with this storm. I believe 3 days ago I posted the center passing through the state of N.J. and that seems to still hold true...counter-clockwise rotation right? Winds not from the NE but from the East and then from the Southeast....it cant stay snow the whole time with those winds. How bad the storm is for the first 3 hours will tell the story with this one...and then a warmup several days after this storm. No snow on the horizon.

    This weekend:
    Saturday
    Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42.
    Saturday Night
    A 50 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33.
    Sunday
    A 50 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 46.
    Sunday Night
    A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30.
    Monday
    Mostly sunny, with a high near 40.
     
    #12229 jaywayne12, Feb 6, 2018
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2018
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  10. FJF

    FJF 2018 MVP Joe Namath Award Winner

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    @jaywayne12 , no matter how much I tell myself not too, I am always to swayed by each model run.
     
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  11. Cman69

    Cman69 The Dark Admin, 2018 BEST Darksider Poster

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    Locals calling for an nasty Snow/Ice/Rain mix here..
     
  12. Brook!

    Brook! Soft Admin...2018 Friendliest Member Award Winner

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    Same here Grandpa. 1 to 3 inches snow in the AM tomorrow and turns to rain in Madison.
     
  13. CBG

    CBG Well-Known Member

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    Fjay the models suck this year ( worse than last year and I did not think that possible ) ,,,,these models do not have a handle on this event. It really boils down to how long the cold air hangs on and where the snow / rain line REALLY is and how fast it moves because I don't think ANYONE knows ( besides the Jayster lol) I mean if you look at predictions and maps these people at Uptown and Albany and the NWS can't even agree or figure it out. Warm air being pushed into existing cold air should make for some solid snow or precept falling whatever it is,,,ps I hate ICE storms !!
     
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  14. FJF

    FJF 2018 MVP Joe Namath Award Winner

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    I’m sticking with my last prediction, you’re in the line,I’m barely over will have mixing issues mid afternoon before a change back.

    They downgraded the winter weather watch to an advisory now too. Nam is going lower totals.
     
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  15. CBG

    CBG Well-Known Member

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    But is the Nam having a problem with the dynamics / temps ? I literally just watched Bernies video and next to Jay and then you ( lol ) I trust him with this stuff and EVEN HE was having a hard time with this one,,,,,its gonna be interesting in the mid morning
     
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  16. FJF

    FJF 2018 MVP Joe Namath Award Winner

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    I hear ya c. What Bernie was saying about the temps and whether it switches over or when will swing the totals a lot. There will be a lot of now casting tomorrow
     
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  17. Brook!

    Brook! Soft Admin...2018 Friendliest Member Award Winner

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    How about Madison? Jury duty tomorrow morning at 8:00. Will I make it or no?
     
  18. FJF

    FJF 2018 MVP Joe Namath Award Winner

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    Yea, you will make it. Might be an interesting drive home, unless you get sequestered.
     
  19. Brook!

    Brook! Soft Admin...2018 Friendliest Member Award Winner

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    Thanks sir
     
  20. CBG

    CBG Well-Known Member

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    to quote Ralph Cramden " whoa it certainly looks like rain tonight "
     

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