Chubb played 4 years and have 25 sacks. That's 6 a year not exactly Joey Bosa type production. With the talent level of NFL offensive lines and the incompetence of a Bowles coached team, you can knock even those small numbers down a few notches. Sorry don't see no beast there.
18-19 years? Rookie lol. My profile may say differently but I also was on this site in 97/98 when I got my first computer. So now we got that out of the way. Opposed to Chubb as the pick unless the Jets unload everything in free agent and get some offensive pieces. Its way past the time to fix that side of the football. The talent level for the Jets d line would be improved with better linebacker play. Right now they are all over the place. You got one good inside linebacker in Davis. The other guy gets run over contantly and is very tiny. The two outside guy are just marginal at best. Davis may leave so then you will have to get 3 more linebackers and the Jets still don't run Bowles original blitzing defense from his Arizona days. Waisting capital on Chubb when you have some nice offensive players coming out .
I'm not advocating taking Chubb over a QB or an offensive player. I was just responding to the comment that the D is garbage and that he wouldn't make a difference.
For those of you that are thinking of passing on Barkley let's go back to a previous draft where the Falcons traded up to # 1 overall to get Michael Vick. The Atlanta Falcons traded down from the top to select LaDanian Tomlinson at # 5. Their patience was rewarded a second time in that draft when they selected a less hyped QB in round two named Drew Brees.
Serby put out his Mock Draft 1.0.: https://nypost.com/2018/01/07/giants-and-jets-will-snag-a-qb-in-our-first-nfl-mock-draft-of-2018/ I hate to say it, but I think he's right about how it unfolds: 1. Browns Sam Darnold, QB, USC New GM John Dorsey should recognize the last thing this woebegotten franchise — which has drafted everyone from Tim Couch to Johnny Manziel — needs is a controversial strong-armed quarterback from UCLA who has already aired out a preference for not making the Browns great again. Darnold might not be ready to start from Day 1, but the benefit of keeping Hue Jackson as head coach pays off because he can develop the kid. Kudos to the 0-16 Browns for showing the rest of the league how to Suck for Sam. 2. Giants Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA GM Dave Gettleman is in no rush to turn in his pick because his phone is exploding. From a 973 area code: “Hi Dave, Mike Maccagnan from the Jets. I know you need a young franchise quarterback, unlike us because we’re we’re happy about Christian Hackenberg’s progress, but we’d like the pick anyway, and since I heard you say that big men allow you to compete, how would you like to compete with Muhammad Wilkerson?” A good try by Maccagnan, but Gettleman and the new Giants coach can’t pass on Eli Manning’s successor and their quarterback of the future. Broadway Josh. 3. Colts Bradley Chubb, OLB, N.C. State Andrew Luck needs help — a bodyguard, an elite running back, a new shoulder, anything. GM Chris Ballard presumably will have attacked free agency again with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind. His phone rings. From a 973 area code: “Chris? Mike Maccagnan here. My intel informs me you are highly unlikely to draft a quarterback (forced laugh). And as you may have heard, we’re happy with Christian Hackenberg’s progress. But just wondering if you’d be interested in our sixth pick, only three teeny weeny spots down.” Ballard isn’t interested. The Colts haven’t hounded the passer since Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis left, so here is a war-daddy pass rusher to chase Deshaun Watson and Marcus Mariota. 4. Browns Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State Dorsey’s phone rings in the war room. A 973 area code: “Hey John, Mike Maccagnan from the Jets. Congrats on the gig. Didn’t call you earlier because, as you may know, we’re happy with Christian Hackenberg’s progress. Great first-overall pick. Our scouts were high on Sam even though we didn’t do much due diligence on the quarterbacks. Anyway, this is the third time in four years I’ve had the sixth pick, and I’m thinking it could be just as good for you as it’s been for me (forced laugh). And I do have two second-rounders by the way, and Muhammad Wilkerson playing alongside Myles Garrett? I can hear the Dawg Pound now!” Dorsey isn’t interested. Not with a gamebreaking running back who will do for Darnold what Todd Gurley is doing for Jared Goff. Modal Trigger Baker MayfieldAP 5. Broncos Baker Mayfield, QB , Oklahoma John Elway answers the phone in his war room. A 973 area code. “Hey John. Mike Maccagnan with the Jets. If you come out of retirement, you can play quarterback for us (forced laugh)! Just kidding, we are soooo happy with Christian Hackenberg’s progress, you would not believe it. Between us, I know you guys coached the Mayfield kid in the Senior Bowl, is he taller than Doug Flutie (forced laugh)? Anyway, just wondering if you’d be interested in swapping picks.” Elway isn’t interested. He loves Mayfield’s moxie and it factor. 6. Jets Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming Maccagnan picks up the phone in his war room. Cardinals GM Steve Keim is calling. “Hey Mike. I’ll be honest, we’re desperate for a franchise quarterback to succeed Carson Palmer. And the talk around the league is you’re happy with Christian Hackenberg’s progress. Man, we loved that kid coming out. I can help you big-time, picking all the way down here at 15.” Maccagnan tells Keim: “Steve, at the end of the day, as happy as we are with Hackenberg’s progress, Josh Allen was at the very top of our draft board, our No. 1-rated player. That’s my story and I’m sticking to it. That’s what we’ll be telling our media and fans here shortly. So what might you be willing to give me for Hackenberg? Asking for a friend.” ************************************************************************************************* An alternative scenario that I think is very possible is the Browns take Barkley #1, and then take the best QB available at 4, still likely Darnold. That's what I would do anyway. And while I would be happy Macc finally puts his reputation on the line and takes a QB with his 1st pick, I'm not sure I like Allen, although I'm not sure I don't like him either. If he can't trade up from #6, it feels like taking hand-me-downs.
I never underestimate the combine's ability to make the third best QB prospect look very special. I think the Browns could easily take Josh Allen #1 overall. They have the biggest credibility gap at the moment and Allen is going to look very good at the combine in drills. Allen also comes out of a pro-style offense so the option stigma isn't going to be hurting him when compared to Rosen and Darnold. The question is whether Allen looks like a Carson Wentz type talent or not at the combine and in their skivvies a lot of players look really good if you squint a bit.
First off - even though I am not advocating the Jets pick Chubb regardless he will be gone by our pick. Way to Cherry picks Stats (25 sacks in 4 years which is really only 3 as he barely playyed freshman year), but fail to mention that he had 10 sacks each the last 2 years and 44 tackles for a loss. Do you really believe an 18 year old kid coming out of high school is anywhere near the player they are 4 years later after a collegiate work out program? Like they do not improve and get stronger as they mature? Chubb was a lock to be a first round pick last year and elected to go back to finish school and only improved his stock. You really have no clue what you are talking about.
I would take Josh Allen over Baker Mayfield. I guess if you are going to aim high, aim the highest you can go
There's several places I could put this, even in the "New York Jets" thread, but since it focuses on drafting I'll put it here. There's been a lot of back and forth over whether it's worth the risk to use the 1st pick on a QB, or that you can find a QB in a later round. I've posted stats to show that the odds of finding a FQB in a round other than 1 is significantly lower, and gets significantly lower in each successive round. Now here is a study from Harvard that also proves this point: https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2011/05/31/drafting-an-nfl-qb/ Many assert that teams should stay away from first round QB because so many are busts; others argue that the first round is the best place to take a QB. Looking back on the last thirty years of the draft, it turns out that 39% of QBs taken in the first round became “elite” QBs (4,000 season passing yards, 60% completion percentage, a certain “put-the-team-on-my-back”-itude) while 39% become “busts”; the remaining 22% become middle-of-the-pack players. In fact, the first pick is the best time to take a QB: nine out of the fifteen QBs selected first overall in the past thirty years have become elite while only two have turned into busts. After the first round, the chances of selecting an elite quarterback plummet to 19% in the second, 6% in the third, and dwindle to 1% in the seventh round. Contrary to what many believe, the earlier you select a QB, the better the odds that he is actually good. Having an elite or bust QB has a significant effect on win percentage. Teams with an elite quarterback, on average, win 55% of the time while teams with a bust have a 35% win percentage. Since the average team wins 50% of the time, the benefit of having an elite QB is +5% on win percentage while a bust performs 15% below average – a huge effect for one player to have on 53-man roster. The reward FAR outweighs the risk. Of course that's not to say there is NO risk, but if you're risk-averse, you shouldn't be a GM.
I think most realise this. I'd love to know what that sort of analysis shows for the top 2/3 QBs picked vs the rest of the first round. And how many of the busts were by teams that reached or traded up because they were really QB needy?
Yeah like these kids stay all 4 years. Chubb is rare for sure for staying in 4 years. He'll be there at 6 and probably 10. Vernon Gholston 2.0.
This doesn't fully answer your question about the top 2-3 QBs because it's a limited sample size, but this article, which tries to make the case that you SHOULDN'T take a QB in the first round, but actually seems to prove the opposite (that it's smarter to do so): https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/...hows-first-round-qbs-are-more-likely-to-fail/ Matt Ryan and Cam Newton have earned NFL MVP honors in each of the last two seasons while leading their respective teams to the Super Bowl. Andrew Luck, arguably the biggest can't-miss quarterback prospect since John Elway in 1983, found instant success. The Colts went from a league-worst 2-14 record in 2011 before Luck's arrival to the playoffs in 2012 with 11 wins. Luck re-set the NFL pay scale with the five-year extension he received from the Colts last offseason. The contract averages $24.594 million per year and contains $87 million in guarantees, of which $47 million was fully guaranteed at signing. Matthew Stafford is in line to become the NFL's first $25 million per year player at some point this offseason after demonstrating he could thrive without six-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Calvin Johnson, who prematurely retired after the 2015 season. Joe Flacco is the only first-round quarterback drafted in the past 10 years to win a Super Bowl. USATSI A common denominator with Luck, Newton, Ryan and Stafford is they were top-three picks. Ryan is the only one that wasn't the first pick of his draft. *********************************************************************************************** Even when the article tries to support its supposed argument that taking a QB in the 1st round is "too risky": For every successful first-round quarterback pick in recent years, there are almost twice as many failures. A conclusion can be drawn with 19 of the first-round picks. Only seven, or 36.8 percent, arguably could be considered a success. What it doesn't state is what is the Success Rate for QBs taken in any other round? Or for that matter what is the Success Rate for all other positions? Nor does it account for the fact that QB is the most demanding position, and so failure is more likely to begin with. It ends it's "argument" with this: Seventy-three of the 120 playoff teams (60.8 percent) over the last 10 years have gotten to the postseason with quarterbacks taken in the first round. Forty-four times the quarterback was a top-five pick. Additionally, six of the last 10 Super Bowl winners have had quarterbacks that were first-round picks. Which actually PROVES that if you're going to draft a QB, you're best bet is the 1st round, and at the highest spot you can get. Of course simply drafting ANY QB with the highest doesn't guarantee anything - that's how busts are made - but if you do your due diligence, and know what you're doing, you should succeed more often than not.
Flacco is actually a bad comparison in this because he could easily have gone early to mid 2nd in addition to which the Ravens have sucked since they committed a franchise QB's portion of the cap to him.
Assuming Mr Mac sits on his hands and doesn't trade up to secure the BEST QB for us...yes this could happen Between now and the draft it's figuring out who is more talented and best fit for the Jets : Mayfield Allen Rosen??..in other words don't wait till something just falls your way imo
I agree, which is why you have to do due diligence, and even then can miss. But it still doesn't offset the advantage of taking a QB with your highest pick if you're going to draft one.
I'm all for taking a QB in the top 36. I'm just really hesitant to make a major trade up in the process given the crapshoot involved. Any of the top 5 or 6 guys could be a hall of fame QB. Any of them could be out of the NFL in 4 years too. Andrew Luck isn't there although both Rosen and Darnold have the mantle of stardom hanging over their shoulders if they get into the right situation. Luck was wearing it already when he was drafted.
Great article! Thanks for sharing it. Hopefully, it will prove to some of our other posters how wrong they are and they'll stop with their nonsense about there being a greater chance of a bust in the 1st round, and the odds being better lower.
