Tough call Greg but if you go by early models...again...models...NNJ Bergen gets more snow then Ramsey. Getting there will be easier then getting home..and that's a huge guess. Well..kind of..safe to say getting there will be easier...getting home? No idea yet. Here is an important clue...while this whole will it be more west thing has been the main topic for 4 days, at THIS time...there is no model really saying that NW Jersey will get clobbered. Can it happen? Absolutely. Also, one thing for sure....a heavy deformation band will set up somewhere in N.J TO CT. Where is the problem...but in that zone close to a foot is possible and more north even more. Right now it looks like a Gardens State Parkway thing...but a 50 mile swing either way...tough call.
that might be a stretch my man...again though that story will play out this afternoon I think and hope.
I heard on the radio that this storm is called Brady? If so, I want no part of it. I don't need no stinking snow from Brady.
Notice I never refer to a name on a storm. Its like Patriot fans that call their players by their first name..drives me insane. NO..NOT BRADY. It begins with a G...and I will let someone else give you the name.
Thanks for the info. Hopefully my company closes tomorrow if its bad. Got the snow blower ready to go but I just don't want to be bothered driving in it.
Let me take this time on behalf of TGG to thank the Jayster for making a cameo, I know that FJAY appreciates it but so do the rest of us so Thank You Batman for making an appearance in Gotham ! Try and show up more often "sir" as you can read----you are missed !
That's really nice CBG. You guys have been missed by me. Miss doing this but its a headache for one..its easier now. Also, its like watching a playoff game and your team isn't playing. Not being in the area took the fun out of it. Might shock a few...but being in the area...going outside and feeling it? It helps..when you lose that vibe its more model b.s. Never really enjoyed just doing this by models. I don't know how local guys in Atlanta for the The Weather Channel do it...but respect them for that at least. Also helps I have been off for a couple weeks. Will say this..flurries and light sleet at are my doorstep here in Wilmington! First snow for me down here other than a few flurries. But again...thanks a lot. That was very nice sir.
I understand EXACTLY what you are saying about being out of the game down there and looking at model runs,,,,,also as far as what I wrote, some people I tell or write to go " EFF " themselves and others LIKE YOU I don't ! ----> Keep em coming
This weather stuff is hard, but also fun and informative, so much that it's gotten 600 pages! This storm is confusing, but more-so since we have people on this thread from so many different geographical areas, but mainly East Coast. We have Jersey, Pa, Long Island, everyone wants a snow total for their front yard.... I'm leaning towards lighter, but only because Jay told me to follow trends and so far it's been light this year.
The trend for me has been overachiever. 3 events so far and all were more than forecasted. I feel this one can do the same.
HEY FRED! Yep on the trends but with a storm like this...throw that one out. There really isn't a trend to this one...there are but long ago and useless. Really tough call..but just spotted this short term model that has helped me in the past. Remember earlier I mentioned that for Jersey...this could be a Garden State Parkway special? Well...check this model out: LINK: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw2/2018010300/wrf-arw2_asnow_eus_47.png EDIT: If that's not a western trend...don't know what is.
Now to the above link...exaggerated? Perhaps...but maybe not. Not flinching at those numbers..and areas will get that much.
and although not that much....the NWS follows suit and ups their numbers...they will busy fellows trying to get their numbers in line with potential all day...and inch at a time. LINK: http://www.weather.gov/images/phi/winter/StormTotalSnowWeb1.png And I'm not busting them...they have to be careful. You cry wolf a few times and nobody listens. Easy for me...I just find a rock for a few weeks and come back and say "hey fellas...whats up?"
WRF model along with its sibling...the HWRF (the hurricane model for tropical systems) is actually a very good model. If memory serves me correctly...its a rapid short term updating model. It takes human input along with current conditions and again...I could be a bit off on the timing...but I know its a short term model. Its had pretty good success and many use it for a future 8 to 12 hours at a time. Have used the HWRF model for tropical systems but wouldn't be able to tell you how good it did...getting old.
