your area is a tough one. When you talk about storm potential...its your area that rings the bell. Gut says yes...no work Thursday.
East of I95 and excuse me for being flat out dumb about timing but I really have been following the time line down here...hold on...let me check.
Hey Jay and Fjay and others it appears that most METS are clueless as to what is going to actually happen. I see forecasts all over the place with amounts but I think the safest thing they can do is issue watches and warnings----it appears to me that we might not know who gets what until gametime ,,,
FOR THE NYC metro...overnight Wednesday all day Thursday...but for those late to the party a few thoughts. Going by models and models alone....I will describe this for snow lovers. Those west of I95 might have been to better parties with their Nun friends....perhaps not much of a party. Problem is nobody....and I mean NOBODY..and honestly say how this turns out. I have never before seen so many not buying the light snowfall amounts the models are putting out. My area is predicted to get no more than 3" of snow...and I HIGHLY doubt that. Highly doubt it. Down here will be a good barometer for those up north east of I95. Will keep you updated.
read the above post. Here is the reason for that...when a train hits you going a hundred miles an hour...you should die. The models are saying you will survive. Its a monster of a storm that refuses (according to the MODELS) to dump lots of snow. Its rare...and tough to figure out.
One last thought until later tonight. You have a lot of wishcasters in the amateur (and professional) world of tracking storms. Build up because that's what you want. So when I see many saying (I disagree with these models...it has to be more) you become very skeptical. Not with this storm. The confusion is valid. Still think it has to surprise many.
"wishcaster/ novice here " lol,,,Jay it appears at least to me that once the setup hits around NC it starts moving or gets pushed east,,,,,,what is the reason for this , is the energy to the North kicking it East or is there I chance I am wrong and that this head just due North and NOT north east ? thoughts ? anyone
I mean if the energy to the South was to say slow down would it continue more of a Northern track ? Why is it getting kicked east , damn the science is hard !!
WTF: Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM- 723 PM EST Tue Jan 2 2018 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT REST OF TONIGHT North northeast winds 20 to 25 knots with a few gusts to 35 knots. Seas 7 to 10 feet with occasional seas up to 13 feet subsiding to 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet after midnight. Dominant period 9 seconds. Inland waters choppy. Rain likely, a chance of light freezing rain, snow and sleet after midnight.
Hey @stinkyB You stink you know that? Lol. Do you call that winter weather? Come experience sub zero temps up here in North East. Bleh!
soooooooo much model indecision,,,,,,we might not know what is going to happen until it actually happens,,,,,,,,,but this sure is fun to follow
holy crap GG...this is the Gods honest truth. I NEVER ever checked that stuff even in the past. One day CBG told me there were like a bunch of guests watching during a storm. I said what? Never checked...but all the credit goes to sundayjack. He started this page...he named this thread. Great stuff. Always enjoyable...even when we screwed up big time.
You and CBG make the same excellent point. Its not actually kicking east. You have a double barrel low..well...in a sense..and the models are trying their best to decide which one has the balls...and which one has the ...well...doesn't have the balls. One will take over...there lies the kick east theory. Technially it looks like its kicking...its not...that low is taking over. Many do not buy that will happen. Once the "kick" takes place...the storm continues on its merry way towards the N/NE. If the kick...transfer doesn't take place...NJ coast and NYC ON northeast gets plastered. You in Morristown get decent snows. Its a bit more technical than that...lows being "stacked" but CBG will start to think about women and we lose him there. If it does take place...you end up with a bunch of crap in your house you will not need.
