Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

this truly is storm that will be studied for a long time. Again....anyone along the coast and 50 miles (at least) needs to keep an eye on this...and for its reward..once it passes...will pull into the region the coldest temps in over a decade. With the incredible wind gusts...life threatening for some along the coast because power outages will be numerous.

 

resolutions. The obvious...but when you dig deeper...I'm sure you have heard them talk about CF..convection feedback. It shows precip where there is not...The higher resolution reduces the feedback...which in turn can even change the track. Its new...and its really helping. Its the reason why so many have thought there is a potential for a more west track because the storm will chase the moisture.

It just gives a more accurate precip amount and track.

 

For many years...when forecasters (guys in the basement not guys with suits on T.V) would talk about tracks and precip amounts not making sense because of where it all adds up. The higher resolution models are beginning to take some of the guessing game out of it. Problem is that the Weather Channel and suits are still hung up on what they have used for decades. Have to change with the times...and its the reason why so many that have begun to look deeper...higher resolutions...have thought that this storm will be more west. Models have been hinting at that for 48 hours now.

 

There will be places that get a blizzard...and it sounds strange but of course...New England coast.....but areas far south even by me will have a window of 3-5 hours...where the wind will be howling and snow falling hard.

There are no plows down here...and salt is used to make a steak taste better...and that's it. Should be interesting.

 

huge hmmmm.... there are two possibilities.

1. It looks like a duck. It has 4 legs...it barks...humps your leg...I mean...it cant be a duck. But it looks like one.
Some reliable models are screaming blizzard for the immediate coast...but the precip shield is saying yes..monster storm...tropical storm winds....but wheres the beef? Where is all the snow that should coincide with the picture. Well...its just not that kind of storm.

2. Its a damn dog. I don't care what the damn thing looks like...its a dog.
The models are struggling with this type of storm...and the higher resolution models are screaming don't look at the pic..its a friggin dog.
If it is...many along the coast will be very pissed off and wonder how they messed up this storm so badly and ended up with a paralyzing blizzard. Hopefully todays model runs clarify what the hell we are looking at.

 

lol xxedge.

For such a not hyped storm...oh boy...surprises will be many. Believe this will be a major news thingy by dinner tonight.

 

and for the record down here..here is the forecast from the NWS:

WILMINGTON, NC
Wednesday: Snow likely, mainly after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 36. Wind chill values as low as 5. North wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Wednesday Night
Snow, mainly before midnight. Low around 24. Northwest wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

I will open their eyes a bit....Wilmington NC will probably get between 4-7" of snow...and I'm being conservative I believe.

 

That's the whole problem with this system. Its screaming a more west with the precip...screaming. The higher resolution models are saying maybe...and some probably. You have a better shot than FJF I believe. You are more towards the Tappan zee bridge and FJF is more towards the west right? Really tough call and some answers to that may not happen until tonight.

AGAIN...models are screaming that this should be a bigger storm west of I95. It like that huge box to little box Christmas gift game. The box is huge....but the gift is tiny. I'm not buying that...not at all. The damn box is too big.

 

Here is my point CBG....I just held my nose and put on the weather channel.

They have Long Island..even the eastern tip...in the 1-3" range. That is a joke. Big joke. I think parts of L.I. get closer to a foot.

Now..I do love the weather channel once a storm gets cranking.....they do a great job breaking down live radar. They just suck leading up to a storm with their overall breakdowns and potential.

 

agreed.

It WILL happen..but where does the qpf set up...where is the cutoff line. And the cold that follows...very dangerous setup for a large part of the coast.

Now the way the coast runs...from Georgia/Florida panhandle to Maine...with L.I. sticking out there...places in VA may not get what places like Long Island and MA and the Cape get. Really tough call. Still..it will happen for the obvious areas. Long Island is one...Cape Cod is another...and much of the coast of CT. How far inland? Truly I have no idea.

 

Here is what I learned about you my friend

A. You are one of the nicest people I have ever met on any board. You so deserve to be a mod. You are a smart yet calming person...and really happy I met you here.

B. It doesn't matter what I tell you...you will be stocked up as if stores will be closed for 2 weeks.

Now...seriously? Why not...I would. Model chances that its needed are less than 20% for your area models don't know how to handle this monster? Well over 20%. I would...and you are going to my friend!