he also pointed out the mehta article, apparently he's the QB guru of this board ... sorry @legler82 you lost your spot
@JetsFan is a joke. Spouts nothing but stats, quotes Mehta and never comes around when things are going good. A lot of troll like qualities in his style
Yes, let's do a time warp to 2008 ...remember we signed an even more talented QB than Cousins named Favre who ALREADY had 1 SB ring and was in two others ????!!! By week 12 the Jets had an 8-3 record ..then the last 5 games Favre threw several interceptions ...so who knew. SB dreams down the drain What really hurts is that NY released Chad Pennington to make room for BF! Not trying to rain on this Cousins parade but just caveat emptor...no easy answer here imo Plus there is no "guarantee " he gets us to a SB...that's just an assumption Some of you might say what has this got to do with Cousins who is younger and BF was already 40? My point is that drafting and grooming a healthier much younger more durable very talented FQB might be harder but is the better move for decades not short term Nothing worthwhile comes quick my friends
Of course you are leaving out the details,like Favre being much older at the time the jets traded for him and the fact that he tore a muscle down the stretch that lead to his ineffectiveness. But again, that’s why you are the worst poster on this board Bar none
I'm re-posting this post from the "Mortgaging the future" thread because the point I'm trying to make is that if you need a QB, and you believe there's a guy who fits your criteria, you need to pounce at the first opportunity, not wait until he falls to the level he's valued at by the "experts". If he fits your scheme, and you believe he can lead your team to the SB, you need to act on your belief. Otherwise, some other team may well grab him, while you're waiting for him to become a "good value". Sure, you may guess wrong, but if you're afraid of failing, then you shouldn't be in charge. I'm thinking of someone like Stidham right now, who isn't in the national discussion of top QBs, but should be. Is he better than Rosen, Darnold, Mayfiled, Jackson, et. al.? I'm not sure...well, I'm pretty sure he's not better than Rosen, but he might be...but he certainly is going to be in that discussion soon, if not already after yesterday. So if the Jets can't get Rosen, from what I've seen, Stidham may be the next best choice. Now let's say the "experts" have him as a 2nd or even 3rd rounder, based on what I've seen over the years, the Jets need to disregard the "experts" if Macc thinks he's their guy, and take him with their 1st pick if he's there. And no, that doesn't mean trading down and gambling that he'll still be there in the mistaken calculus that you'll get extra picks AND still get your QB, because he may not be there for you. If you think he's FQB material, he's worth whatever your first pick is. Of course this holds true for whoever they think might be their FQB, Darnold, Mayfield, Jackson, et. al. Anyway, below is the post from the other thread which I think supports my belief that gambling draft picks for a guy you believe can be your FQB is well worth it. **************************************************************************************************************************************************************** Here are a couple of articles that shed some light on how successful players are based on where they're taken, as well as evidence that most draft picks don't make it. From this article: https://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe...w-contingent-is-success-to-draft-position/2/# Of the 595 players designated as "starters" in the 2014 season, almost a third were drafted in the 1st round. Another third were taken in rounds 2 &3. So those who say "You can find great talent in the later rounds" are not supported by this statistic = 60% of starters are taken in rounds 1-3, with HALF of those coming in round 1. Also, 1st rounders played a higher percentage (67%) of games than any other round, while those drafted in rounds 4-7+ only played 7% of the possible games. And finally, the average length of career for all players in 3.3 years From this article: https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015...e-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round It studied drafts from 2005-14, and out of 2465 players drafted, only 629 became starters for at least half their career. With regards to QBs specifically: Of the 122 QBs drafted in the last 10 years only 25 have been starters for at least half of their career. The first round gives you a 63% chance of finding a starter. The second round gives you a 27% chance, the third a 17% chance, then it really plummets from there with 8% in the fourth and 6% in the 7th. In the last 10 years, 38 QBs have been drafted in the 5th and 6th rounds and not one has become a starter. From this article: https://www.dailynorseman.com/2017/4/12/15274148/most-nfl-draft-picks-are-busts here is how all draft picks over the past 20 years (not including last year) have fared overall: 16.7% Didn’t Play for the Team that Drafted Them. 37% Were Considered “Useless” 15.3% Were Considered “Poor” 10.5% Were Considered “Average” 12.3% - Were Considered “Good” 6.9% Were Considered “Great” From the above, only 20% of all draft picks really make an impact. So if you have 5 picks, only one is likely to make an impact, and that pick is likely to be a first rounder. Even then, his career may not last more than 3-4 years. After digesting all of this, what I conclude is that most draft picks fail, and so aren't really all that valuable, with the exception of the first round. And even when a player succeeds, his impact is usually only felt for 3 years or so, thus the "future" isn't really a long period of time. WHile "building through the draft" is considered "smart", if you only average getting one or even two players per year, it would take 10-12 years to build completely from the draft, so what this really means is that you have to use FAs and trades to build the majority of your roster. This again lessens the values of draft picks, particularly past the first round. So on the basis of all this, I would say trading away almost all your picks is worth it for the right QB.
On the topic of scheme fit and Rosen vs Stidham, Rosen is the clear cut better prospect at the moment but Stidham might be the better schematic fit, assuming, of course, we retain Morton and Bates. Rosen can play in any scheme really but has been on record expressing his strong dislike of the WCO. If your QB doesn't completely buy into your offense, it doesn't bode well. Stidham, on the other hand, is tailor made for the WCO. He has the best footwork in the class. He has already mastered 3-5-7 drops w/ or w/o hitches under center and in shotgun. You add in his accuracy in the pocket and out as well as how he throws with great timing and anticipation, you have an ideal WCO. Stidham's game right now very similar to that of our very own Josh McCown. It took Josh 38 years to get to the level he is playing at now; Stidham got there in half the time with lots of room to improve.
If the Jets somehow get lucky and get Rosen, and they don't adjust their scheme to fit him, then they deserve whatever hell they descend into. No matter who it is, forcing a guy to play "your system" is retarded, and the cause of coaches being fired. If you believe a guy can lead your team, why would you handicap him by making him learn a foreign system? Of course the exception is a QB who has only ever played in a spread system which isn't going to be used in the pros, but Rosen has played in a pro-type system. I think it's a moot point because he won't land on the Jets, but like I said, if he does, and they handicap him by making him learn a whole new system, they deserve the failure they'll reap.
This draft is going to be extremely interesting. I can see as many as 5 QBs taken in the 1st round (the most since 1997), surely will be able to land somebody. Maybe trade up a few spots if need be. 1. Rosen 2. Darnold (probably staying in) 3. Mayfield 4. Jackson 5. Stidham 6. Rudolph 7. Allen
I don't know if I totally agree with this. All coaches have a system influenced by some greater philosophy. When they draft a player they must take that into account. Unless we are going to hire his college OC, he will have to learn a new system no matter what. He should be used to it by now; I believe he's already had to do that all 3 years in college. Like I said, with Rosen it's not really a matter of scheme fit but more scheme preference. Anything short of a predominantly zone read offense would be a fit. His football IQ is so advanced that he's acquired biases towards certain offensive principles/concepts. Something one would expect from a NFL vet, not a college prospect.
While a coach may have a bias based on his experience in certain system, he's a fool if he has a great QB talent and cripples him by trying to force a "square peg into a round hole". If necessary, he should hire an OC/QB Coach who are familiar with the QB's strengths and let them develop a system to fit him. As for Rosen, from what I've seen, I'm sure he can adapt however he needs to, but he'll do better in some systems rather than others, and it's in his future team's best interest to maximize his talent by adjusting to him, not the other way around.
The crop is very interesting this year. Josh Allen is by far the most polarizing one(most potential and most bust potential, but shouldn't be a day 1 starter). I liken him to Carson Wentz. Josh Rosen is likely a upper echelon QB (Matt Ryan). Darnold to me should return to USC. Mayfield seems to be similar to Rosen in that they are the most "pro ready" but he is undersized (Russell Wilson?). When thinking about Jackson i just cannot stop comparing him to RGIII. Rudolph seems to be more of a "later round project QB" that teams gamble on in later rounds. I haven't watched Stidham enough to make any definitive judgement yet other than I wouldn't take him with our likely top 10 pick (might change depending on film study etc.). I'm not quite sure to make of Nick Fitzgerald yet either.
Totally agree on the comparisons you made, was having trouble coming up with one for Mayfield but Wilson is definitely the best especially because of his size and ability to extend and just flat out make plays. Out of the quarterbacks coming out, I would 100% rather have Mayfield, just love the edge and passion he plays with and for a young team like us, he can come in and become an immediate leader in my opinion. very respected by his team let alone he was a walk-on at first at Texas Tech I believe then transferred and worked his way up to what looks like will be a Top 10 pick.
