This was supposed to be the year of the QB, a year to rival the best QB drafts of the past, but the wheels fell of the cart. Should the Jets draft a QB in 2018? Yes. Will they? Who the hell knows with this team. It currently looks like McCown will have a good enough year and get a new contract just like Fitz did and we will be no better off next season with a 39 year old QB who has never won anything. I know there are still games to play and things can always change with a great or very bad outing, but these are my thought so far. I took a look at the top 35 QBs that could come out in the draft and used my own formula and compared it to my preseason rankings. There are some nice surprises and some just horrible outings. Sam Darnold was my #1 preseason, but with my formula he came in at #16, and Josh Allan dropped all the way to #34. Now I know numbers don’t mean everything, so after running my formula I negated QBs that won’t or shouldn’t come out this year. Some that fell in this spot were Steven Montez of COLO, Will Grier of WVU and McKenzie Milton of UCF (Yes he’s short.), these guys should and will stay another year, and they should improve their stock. Below are my top rated QBs so far in order of my preference, even though it would not reflect the order they will be picked in the draft. Baker Mayfield (Yes he’s short, but if he was 3 inches taller he would be everyone's #1 pick.) He is the most accurate QB in college and has been consistent over all four years he played. His only loss this year was against Iowa State, a game in which he through 24 completions (74%CMP) for 306 yards and 2 TDs. He had no INTs and even rushed for 57 yards and a TD. (The loss was not his fault.) He has had BIG wins on the road and despite his height he stands tall in the pocket. Mason Rudolph Started 4 years and has the build NFL teams like. He has a good arm and can still put on a lot more muscle. Over his four year career he has been very consistent, but over these last two years he has proven himself as a good NFL candidate with a 5/1 TD /Int ratio. Inside the ten yard line he has proven to be a duel threat with 7 TD running so far this year. My main concern coming into this year was the number of sack and all the hits he was taking, but he has cut those in half. Luke Falk Another 4 year college starter, who is very accurate and has a great TD/ Int ratio. No one completes more passes or has put up as many passing yards. He is a very good pocket QB, but his two knocks are the number of sacks he takes and he will not win any foot races. He had negative yards on the ground and not one TD with his feet. Sam Darnold He is only a sophomore, but it appears he will come out for the draft but he shouldn’t. This year his play has taken a step back in almost every statistical category. His completion percentage went down as well as his TDs, but his Ints went up and so did his sacks. He has the size and football IQ, but he came into the year as the concise #1 QB and his let it get to him. He tries to do too much and playing beyond himself at times. If he stayed in college one more year and had a year like his freshman year, he would be the 1st pick in the draft. Josh Rosen As a three year starter, this has not been bad year, but not a great year either. Over his three years as a starter he has 53 Tds and 24 Ints. During that period he has averaged 61% completion rate and sacked 47 times. If it wasn’t for his first two games this year where he scored 9 TDs and no Ints with a 68% completion, his season stats would be dreadful. Since game two he didn’t have great amount of success. I feel he should stay in school for his senior year and with a good year at his back and his size he could be a 1st round pick, which is where most people thought he would be in the 2018 draft. Nic Shimonek (Dark Horse Senior) No winning record and only one full year under his belt as a starter, but he is accurate and was able to look good on a crappy team. His seven straight games with 1 Int does scare me, but those were his only Ints and he passed 26 TD. Considering his team and the teams he played his 18 sacks aren’t bad. Some team will pick him up in the mid rounds of the draft and he could surprise us. JT Barrett I hate QBs that run too much and being just down the road from Ohio State I’ve seen plenty of him over the years, and his stats are good, but I’ve seen too many QBs with his type of play end up a bust at the next level. He does a LOT of short passes and runs way too much. He never broke 3,000 yards passing in a season and if his first or second target isn’t open he tuck and runs, which happens 1 out of every 3 passing plays. Not my pick as a QB, but he was rated high by many going into the year. Lamar Jackson He has a lot of yards from scrimmage and a lot of combined TDs, but he is more successful in his feet than in the pocket. He gets as many TDs running as he does throwing and in the NFL he won’t be rushing 20+ times a game. When you’re throwing less than 60% completion and running more times than you complete a pass, you’re not going through many progression. Jake Browning Let’s add another junior to the pile who should return for his senior year. His completion percentage went up this year, but everything else dropped way down. He had 43 TDs last year and only 16 this year. He did have some really good games, and some big wins this season, but he didn’t have to carry the team of bring them from behind. The Team’s average win was by more than 4 TDs and even counting his running TDs he only averaged 14 points a game. He had a rushing game that could get them 200 yards and at least 2 TDs every week. Josh Allen He is having a bad year, not much positive to show. With only 12 passing TDs and a lowly 1600 yards passing you would think he missed some games or was hurt. Only four games this year has he had more TDs than Ints. Additionally he had 4 games he couldn’t break the 50% completion percentage. Only in two games did he even complete more than 18 passes and three games he completed 10 or less passes. I know many people are high on him, or at least were, but he needs to go back for a senior year. Five guys who scored high and should get 5-7 round consideration in the draft. Logan Woodside, TOL Riley Ferguson, MEM Ryan Finley, NCST Nick Stevens, CSU Drew Lock, MIZ *If you think your guy should be rated better or I am missing a name, let me know. I watched some tape of these guys and always willing to watch more. As you saw above, I think the three best guys at this moment were all 4 year starters, and most the rest could use another year in college.
I put Ryan Finley down at the bottom because like many of the people on the list he should stay his final year they granted him. He is a strict pocket guy who doesn't scramble for positive yards much and who needs to add 20-30 pounds. Even though he played some good teams, there were five games so far this year he only put up 1 TD. His YPA is one of the lowest because most of his passes are little dump passes, which definitely helped his completion percentage. If you really want to see him in action check out his tape against Florida State, which is not the good Florida State team of old, but it took until the 1:41 left mark in the 2nd quarter for him to finally complete a pass where the receiver was more than 5 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. Ryan Finley (NC State QB) vs Florida State - 2017
I've watched a fair amount of tape, and compared to the tape on other QBs he is doing GREAT. You say a comment and run, but you should have stated who you think is better so it could be debated, or is it you don't actually have a clue? Many even have Rudolph rated higher than Baker Mayfield, who is my #1, but I feel that is primarily due to his height. If you want to be taken seriously, tell us who you think are the top three QB you would rate higher.
lmao comment and run ... you ain't watch shit and I think you just looked at box scores. Rudolph is a meh decision maker with spotty accuracy with 2 of the best receivers in college football. He's a better version of Bryce Petty and to me that's nothing to be excited about. I've seen a few of his games, and he seems to always make up his mind before the snap. Deep ball tends to flutter down the field. If someone loves statistics, they will love Mason Rudolph (sounds like yourself) Josh Rosen Lamar Jackson Baker Mayfield Darnold is not coming out. Heck I would take Josh Allen over Rudolph, I look at Mason's skill-set and I don't see him as a good QB at the next level.
I was looking at some draft sites and GBNReport has us drafting: NY Jets Mason Rudolph QB Oklahoma State This would make me very happy and mean an end to the Hack experiment. They are also projection as many as 7 seven QBs in the first round. Wow, hard to see that, but as long as we get one of these five I wouldn't be mad. I think two should stay in school, but I also think they will be successful in the NFL even if drafted this year. Baker Mayfield Mason Rudolph Luke Falk Sam Darnold Josh Rosen
He is not that great, and when you take the running aspect out he is lucky to be average in college. No way will he run the ball 20 times a game in the NFL. Over his three years he averaging 57% completion rate. His completion to run ratio is 1/1 and he averages 30+ sacks a year even with his running ability. He has not played that tough of a schedule to warrant those stats. If his 1st read isn't there he runs. Yep, that is worth having as an NFL QB. Now I will say many sites will rank him between 5-10, but top 3, no way? I even put him top ten, but that's because he can use his legs, which faster, bigger LBs will not let him do in the NFL. I truly hope some teach ahead of us in the draft feels like you and takes him, which would leave a better QB for us.
The thing about Jackson is that he comes from the same school as Bridgewater, has a similar style and put up similar numbers so he has that going for him. Agree with you on Mayfield and Rudolph being the two best QBs right now. Wouldn't mind either one of them for the Jets. What about this guy at Auburn, Stidham? Haven't seen him play but heard he's good.
I keep seeing the Northwestern QB, Clayton Thorson's name, getting tossed around. I only saw a couple bits of his two games where he looked decent, but didn't stand out. Thoughts?
It's clear you are looking at statistics alone. Any true student of the game knows when you watch Lamar Jackson, he has the worst supporting cast out of any Power 5 school. Bad line, no weapons, and his receivers have dropped a bunch of passes. Lesson 1, if you use completion % you better back it up. Nice to see you didn't gave a comeback on my Mason Rudolph information. Really gave to question your assessments hence my initial post. Sent from my SM-G930T using Tapatalk
Didn't think you deserved a response. Rudolph has the build teams like, the arm teams like, and the experience teams like. Over three consistent seasons he has maintained a 63% completion rate with a 4/1 TD/Int rate. Those two facts are very important since those stats go down for every college QB when they get to the NFL. NO NFL QB runs the ball 20+ times a game, and NO QB in the NFL runs the ball once every three pass attempts. Jackson is not the perfect size either at a stretched 6'3" and 210 lbs. Plus, let me say if you want to compare the talent surrounding Rudolph and the talent surrounding Jackson, that makes Rudolph's stock that much better. Most the completions Jackson tosses are to wide open receivers or short screens. He overthrows the ball a ton and bounce passes many others. He is no RG3 and we know how that panned out. He is a taller Manziel, except Johnny was a much better passer and he didn't fair well in the NFL either. Let us compare apples to apples, with two NLF failures and the stats of your pick (Jackson), by using the last two college year stats for each. I know you hate stats. I'll look at passing stats since they all were good running QBs, but we know that never correlates to the NFL anyways. Robert Griffin III 2010 Baylor 304 Cmp, 67% Cmp%, 3501 Yds, 22 TDs, 8 Ints 2011 Baylor 291 Cmp, 72.4 Cmp%, 4293 Yds, 37 TDs, 6 Ints Johnny Manziel 2012 Texas A&M 295 Cmp, 68% Cmp%, 3706 Yds, 26 TDs, 9 Ints 2013 Texas A&M 300 Cpm, 69.9% Cmp%, 4114 Yds, 37 TDs, 9 Ints Lamar Jackson 2016 Louisville 230 Cmp, 56.2% Cmp%, 3543 Yds, 30 TDs, 9 Ints 2017 Louisville 197 Cmp, 60.42% Cmp%, 2808 Yds, 18 TDs, 6 Ints Yep, Jackson is the horse NFL teams are drooling over and all want to hitch their teams to. lol
And here it is again in case you missed it. Mason Rudolph Started 4 years and has the build NFL teams like. He has a good arm and can still put on a lot more muscle. Over his four year career he has been very consistent, but over these last two years he has proven himself as a good NFL candidate with a 5/1 TD /Int ratio passing. Inside the ten yard line he has proven to be a duel threat with 7 TD running so far this year. He has had a 63% completion percentage for three straight years; which is something Jackson couldn't even sniff any year.
yawn boring more stats .... if all Jackson did was throw screens and short passes, he wouldn't have a 9 yards per attempt in terms of throwing the football. Watch ANY game, Louisville barely uses the screen game lmao ... who exactly are you watching! yup, you haven't watched a damn thing
man completion percentage truly says if a QB is accurate or not. BTW, my responses, not sure why I am wasting my time, but I am having fun making you look bad in your own thread.
Jarrett Stidham is a sophomore who will be staying in college. He only has this year starting and is was average. To start off he had an above average 66% Cmp%, and a good 9.09 YPA. But with only 11 TDs passing and 2 TDs running, he isn’t putting up many points. His 23 sacks aren’t bad, but when compared to only 11 TDs it’s not great. In 6 games this year he completed 14 or less passes. This year is a great foundation, but he should stay in school for at least another year and if he builds on this year he should greatly enhance his stock for the 2019 or 2020 draft. On a side note, he showed me average arm strength and not much of a fast ball, but those can be improved on. His spiral looks good most the time, but his longest ball has about a 55-60 yard limit in the air, so for a Hail Mary pass your line of scrimmage better be at the 50 or closer. Once again that can be improved too.
You haven't made anyone look bad but yourself by actually debating how great you think Jackson is. BTW he is not getting 9 yards per attempt, stretching it just a bit aren't you? Mayfield is getting 11.9 YPA yet you even had Jackson ahead of him. Yes Cmp% matter a hell of a lot, and Mayfield is the most accurate QB in college, but once again you had Jackson ahead of him. But let’s get back to Mason Rudolph who had a 10 YPA, a 63.3% Cmp%, and a 4/1 TD/Int rate. You are actually debating those stats to Jackson? Oh, right you hate facts and stats. Name any year starting where Jackson’s numbers are equivalent to any year of Rudolph's. Oh wait, you can't. Forgot, I used facts and stats again, I keep forgetting they don’t matter. BTY I have watched tape, as a matter of fact just since your first post, I watch numerous games over of Jackson and all I see is run, after run, after run, with a high ball thrown in. I had posted Jackson as a top ten QB at the start, but you may be convincing me, that I over rated him. Thanks for the insight.
Mason Rudolph's arm strength is questionable at the next level. He isn't going to be playing in a no huddle spread in the pros either.
Just because the college you like has a QB and you would like to see that QB play for the pro team you like, does not mean it is a I hadn't seen his name at all and stat wise he has had a forgettable season. So I tried to find 2017 footage and ended up watching all his plays from the Northwestern vs Nebraska, and Northwestern vs Wisconsin. I even watch two games from 2016, which actually looked better. The Good: He has good size and a good arm. He can put zip on the ball and has a nice spiral. In short and goal he is two dimensional with 7 TDs. The Bad: He holds it too long at times and takes unnecessary sacks. Throws a lot of passes late in the rout and behind receivers. This year he throw more Ints than TDs, due to the late throws, giving defenders time to get to the ball. Other: He plays a lot of option and and even played hurry-up offense. Listening to the TV announcers I heard quite a few comments about how scouts wanted him to take a step forward this year, but he hasn't done it, which matches what the stats say. He we go, I'm talking stats again. Tale of the Stats: Last year was a good year for him and he improved a lot over his first year, but this season was a step back. His YPA are horrible (6.61 yds), which is nothing new since he has average under 6.5 YPA over three years, but so is his TD/Int ratio. He does complete 60.7% of his passes but they are all short pases. Staying in school one more year would give him time to improve his game and his stats. No team would draft him in 2018, but a solid year in college could help him in 2019.
Try to find any QB in college who plays anything but spread these days. It's either full spread or option in every game. I watch the QB to see how many reads he does, how deep he goes into his progressions, and how long he will stay in the pocket before tucking and running.
