latest gfs looks a bit more east. west coach is spared, orlando spared, miami up to st augustine would take some damage, jacksonvile should be spared,crush job for charleston south carolina
I've got friends all over Deerfield Beach and Boca Raton, all within 2 miles of the water and none are leaving. I think too many storms that were built up on the news and then didn't do much.
Looks like the latest GFS takes it just east of the previous track as it passes Miami and then a little more off shore passing Broward and Palm Beach counties which would be at least a little better for there. Then it slams Charleston, SC, not a good scenario for them. Euro still has it passing directly over Miami/Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, the 3 most populous Florida counties, and then Orange and Duval, the 5th and 7th most populated counties. That would just about decimate those counties if it keeps that track and strength. But then NHC has Miami with only a 50% chance of getting hurricane force winds, guess they are going with it being a bit off shore which would be the best case scenario at this time. Looks like best case scenario for Florida ends up as worst case for SC and best case for SC/NC decimates S Fla.
I would think , the best guess right now on track would be to split the difference between both models , not so West and not so East ,,,maybe one of you guys know better but some models are still having a problem with the dynamics . trough and all the other science and they over compensate for things such as when it will actually turn or make a move or pulling North,,,I could be wrong. Also the storm was getting larger as of last night I have not seen any of the overnight runs yet but BIGGER storm covers more area ,,,I could be wrong about that also.
Models are more west,,,not good ! I did not even know that there were models called hurricane models but I saw a graphic of those and most of the members were not good for South East Florida !
New GFS seems to come in around the same spot in Miami but last one bowed out a little off the coast while this one hugs the coast up through Broward and Palm Beach. I know still a lot of time and these keep changing a little bit each time but that doesn't look good. Looks like it passes just off shore of St.Augustine around midday Monday and unfortunately looks like high tide is midday Monday. Could be wrong on that and for StinkyB's sake I hope I am.
hmmm...I dont know but really struggling with these models. They have Irma moving west every so slightly NW..and to my eye its been moving a bit more north than whats modeled from the beginning of the runs. Oh well, will probably straighten out a bit over the next 12 hours. Again, wow on what 20 miles would do for everyone in Florida. They would still get hit hard..but right now? Im not understanding the evacuation process. Nothing really to add. If it were not Miami when this thing turns north, people would be screaming what an incredible consensus with the models. 10 to 20 miles here or there...this town or that town. But its Miami...and thats a big problem.
Could someone check me to see if I am seeing this correct that the Euro has it going straight up the middle of Florida again
Waterboy and FJAY------YES its horrible ,,,,,3 days away but models are back West and right up the center of Florida,,,,,,Cat 4 or 5 ? It will restrengthen over those warm water also! Cuba in the mix no ?
The way it catches Cuba looks like it will weaken in those mountains some and not have time to regain steam before into Florida.all though It can and may get some strength back over the glades. That track is brutal,brutal,brutal.
Those warm waters will have it pick up steam,,,,and Cuba is NOT a direct hit am I wrong ? PS the mountains are only towards one side of the Island I believe the South side,,,,,,,,,
ok anyone of you that can be of help let me know-----Boynton Beach Florida has MANY DRAINAGE CANALS,,,,,I fish with the kids there often, walking distance from my inlaws----can THESE OR WILL THESE BACKUP and create flood problems ? They drain I believe into the everglades but I'm not certain ? Inlaws say NO problems but then again THEY WONT LEAVE,,,,any insight from any of you guys is appreciated !
Looks like it catches the eastern part of Cuba glancing off, if that's not where the mountains are then it won't hurt it too bad. weakens to 945mb off cuba,gets back down to 920 at the tip of Florida. I'd think this track gives a weaker storm than the gfs coastal track does but weaker does not mean weak. I would think anything with water is prone to flood. I haven't seen what the projected storm surge is but if this pushes water into the Everglades and the canals are supposed to drain into the Everglades well seems like excess water has to go somewhere right?
