dont like that location with this track...near boca right? Familiar with that area of Delray Beach. Bottom line is FJF is correct...GFS wants the storm to make a hard right and travel up the Florida coast...hugging it. Then SC/GA border landing. Here's the deal....today at 2pm the EURO comes out..and if they start to agree...if the EURO comes more east..then we will get a very strong hint. Today's EURO is huge. If it doesn't...then its still a crap shoot.
There is no good solution. Even if it comes up the center it won't lose strength till it clears the 'gades. Too much water there
Florida Keys mandatory evacuation announced, all residents must LEAVE https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/hurricane-irma-florida-puerto-rico-caribbean
Latest euro pushes it into gulf, landfall around Tampa, maybe a bit south of that, ft Meyers,Naples area.
I think Ivan in 04 pulled something like that. Edit, Ivan came from south of Cuba and hit around horseshoe, not as severe a hook
Charley was the one that took a right turn, originally was supposed to head for Tampa but hung a right near Captiva island and went through Lakeland and Orlando
Ah, yup. Spawned a tornado in Jacksonville messed up my favorite dirty spoon BBQ joint. I saw it from I-10 while leaving work. The summer of the 4 storms. Lost a window to Francis. Could have been a car but I moved it right before a tree came down where it should have been.
This thing has been trending west for the last few days. I never doubt jay and maybe I just don't know what to look for but I just haven't seen a reason for it not to keep trending west. Unfortunately it's at a point where spinning harmlessly ots isn't much of an option anymore. But it wouldn't surprise me if this becomes a panhandle area hit .
The current model looks very close to what Charley did except coming in just a little north of Port Charlotte and then stays west of Orlando. It would likely destroy Lakeland with many areas there loaded with huge old Oaks.
I'm not shocked people are blowing it off and just going to wait it out. They survived all the little storms so why not this one? Just kinda like how Irene was a bust so a lot of people ignored how bad Sandy would be.
Most storms by a wide margin are a bust. So probability wise they are doing the right thing. But that small chance, if it comes through, has pretty devastating consequences.
its still days away and no clear cut cut track. PS I can vouch for what you wrote as my family in South Florida is not overly worried because they are inland,,,,they have NEVER seen something like this !
oh FJF...you better doubt me sir. The only part I would POSSIBLY disagree with is the continue trend west. I believe every model has stopped the west trend. If anything they all have leaked a bit east today. The UK went east in a big way and sometimes that sets the table for the EURO to follow. With that said...holy crap...get out of town if you are in Florida. Find a safe place if you can. I just have had gut feeling about the east coast compared to the west from past storms.
And right on cue the gfs takes it east, rides the coast of fla and landfall around north/South Carolina border. I will slowly back away from the model maps now
I saw the last GFS run taking it away from us and on cue county closed schools for Thursday and Friday. Let me add, I think it is a good plan so people can get their shit together if they do have to take off.
