EURO running now. Following storms for a long time...real tough to digest some of the stats the models are throwing out......at some point..my guess is by Wednesday the latest and Tuesday for Florida...they have to be believed.
All major models now have Irma running just north of Cuba...so our first real consensus..with EURO which is running now. That is not good for Florida. Lets see.
hit just a hair east in south florida..just south of miami...now..does it run the coast or run florida...lets see. Bottom line is the consensus this far out reminds me of some of the real big ones from the past...models are beginning to align and will change here and there 100 miles or so...but hmmm...doubt it.
goes back out over the atlantic and looks like a b-line for the Carolinas..which would be bad for the entire east coast.
makes landfall in SC. There is a silver lining for Florida...but still..the east coast would be pounded at Miami would be buried. Lets see what it does now. For my own personal area...forget it..being in the northeast part of the circulation...we would be super f'd
My model a.k.a. The Weather Channel has it passing directly over Antigua, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Haiti and Cuba. No northward trend. Could easily get real shitty for the Gulf.
man, i thought the midnight gfs was a throwaway. euro really bent to it. any chance it gets into the gulf? i don't see any reason why it can't keep heading west right now.
to answer both GD and FJF...both the NAVY OPS and the JMA model have it skirting the florida WEST COAST side...so yes on the table. I just doubt it very much. There is a pull..a trough set up over North Dakota that has to pull this north I believe...but it could break down or Irma could tell it to go F itself. Doubt it.
and yes GD..you are correct. Hope Im not just dismissing that. Yes...it could. Just going by that pull. Honestly...I cant figure out what TWC is seeing that would have them leaning towards the gulf. Following JMA model, especially this far out, well...you never know.
lol...thanks FJF. Let me tell you something my friend. Since I moved down here, its tough..so very tough to watch winter storms up there. It took the fun out of tracking. That why I would suck if I had to do this for a living. SUCK. I truly have no interest in partly cloudy high around 80 days. STILL....I followed you guys. You guys did just as good. You guys were great. Hopefully this year I can get into a winter storm while the temps down here are in the 60's and enjoy tracking those again. Regardless, you guys were terrific. And I mean that very very much.
GD...that is a scenario I believe is VERY MUCH on the table. A due north anywhere from 20 to 100 miles off the Florida coast with landfall in either North GA...SC..OR Southern N.C. Its on the table in a big way.
I had to google Snooki. I will be in Chicago for business. I guess I don't have to worry for family in NJ.
brook you son of a gun!! Bought time you popped in. Tough to say. Did some info searching and for the guys that follow the models keep these things in mind. Yes...the EURO does two runs a day. Solid info in...solid info out. Now the GFS does 4 runs a day. The 11:30 pm and 11:30 am runs are all taking in up to date information. The two other runs...5:30 am and 5:30 pm runs ARE NOT. Whether its winter storms or tropical....the GFS runs at the 5:30's are taking in updated data....not fresh data. To me they have always been useless unless they are so different...that something needs to be kept an eye on. I never ever take them at their word. With that said...I do believe from everything I just read about tonights recon flights etc...that we finally will have our best data during the 11:30 pm GFS run and the 2AM EURO run. Runs: GFS 530 AM/PM 1130 AM/PM EURO 2PM 2AM.
