I've been reading this site called Storm 2K and the consensus of poster there, who are all weather experts like you, say the storm is likely to hit between N Florida and NC, for what it is worth.
Slight southern trends. Dead on jwws. Feel it has to make a turn because incoming trough...has to I believe. If so Florida could be...should be spared. No guarantee. Good to see you jwws.
Likewise. It's been a while. Hope you are well. So you're in the Wilmington area? I used to vacation in Wrightsville when my kids were young in in the early and mid 90's until Bertha/Fran/ hit and pretty much destroyed the house we rented and vacation rental prices went through the roof. Beautiful area.
Always go to Wrightsville beach...about 3 miles away. Beautiful town. Bertha and fran. Remember it well. Vacationed in North topsail for 20 years. Settled here and love it but miss the snow. Took the fun out of tracking not being "in it". Really happy to talk to you again and hope you too are doing great.
Doing OK, but worried about this storm, especially after seeing Harvey's devastation. There's water water everywhere here in Morris County and we've had flooding in the past with Floyd, Sandy, etc. Wish I had bought that whole house generator. I'm getting too old to operate a portable generator.
12z euro brushes the carolina coast before spinning out to sea. 18z gfs still hates carolina, crush job.
btw.... I spent my "labor day sunday" laying tile to rebuild my house that was trashed by matthew last year.... I'm not installing cabinets until / if this thing passes
Question, does the Euro just run every 12 hours? Do they run simulations all through the 12 hour period and then the model is a compilation of all the runs? or is the 12 hours used just inputting all available data and there is just 1 run? Just trying to understand this a little better. I keep googling European Model and then get sidetracked by all the pictures.
just one run every 12hrs. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ana...mslp&runtime=2017090312&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=44 i like this site for models
Thanks, been looking for a good site like that. The other European model sites that kept distracting me wanted me to pay to go to a private chat room. Pretty girls but wasn't sure what they could teach me about weather.
gfs seems slow coming out and this might be a throw away run but it has a 884mb monster coming ashore just south of miami. waiting for the rest of the run
Euro showing just about the same from what I can tell. Coming in around Homestead and running right up the middle, hitting the center of the state still at 916mb I think I picked the wrong tome to stop doing drugs, may need some. Donna 2.0 Edit: Guess I was looking at the wrong thing, may have been looking at the GFS again. I think I'll just wait for those that know to comment. And figured out my problem, was looking at 12z time/ 00z time and thinking noon and midnight instead of 7am/7pm
Shit's looking worse with every update...... a few days ago, I was excited about the prospect of taking a few days off of work for a surfing "staycation" Now, I'm worried about going through this bullshit again. I guess tomorrow I should prob call to have my construction dumpster removed from the driveway rt now anyone from Miami to OBX could be getting seriously fuct
incredible shift west with models with florida getting hit very hard with Irma traveling due north....air recon flights going into Irma today so should be interesting to see if there are any swings with todays models.
