Yeah WB. The old school thinking is take the middle of the road this far out with these spaghetti plots...my eye takes it near Charleston, SC...so lets see.
I usually wait for it to get a little closer to the island before looking too much, guess I'll check next week and see what's going on. This just motivated me to get my paperwork back into my mini safe that I took out when I moved.
They were just showing the GFS and Euro on the news, if it keeps strengthening and takes that Euro track it would be devastating. Same time of year and similar track as Donna took in 1960, except it is strengthening much quicker.
Dead on. This far out its tough to say what conditions will be like when its lets say...200-400 miles away from wherever landfall would be. Have seen hurricanes form early...and just travel for 5 to 8 days as a cat 3 storm or higher and maintain that level of intensity. Then as they get closer something disrupts their flow. Hopefully that will be the case. Being down in Wilmington, N.C....this area of 20 miles south and north has become a magnet for hurricanes when they make that "turn" and head northwest. Hopefully that will not be the case...for anyone. The spread seems incredible on the models...from the GOM to out to sea in the Atlantic...but this far out thats normal. Sunday...should be able to narrow down what coast its heading for...but thats about it.
Well whatever happens I need a break from the rain here before Irma gets closer, need to get in a few rounds of golf. Been raining just about every day this month so far, and when it doesn't rain it threatens rain to keep me from going.
listen up, i can not have rain next weekend. at all. none, hear me jay? i haven't been paying much attention, then i saw another 2 pages added on so i thought i would look. oh boy, we need to move that thing out to the middle of the atlantic
Lol...I hear you fjf. Little bit of good news Irma now a 2. Means not much long term. Still believe it has eyes for east coast.
timing is everything and FJF I hope you and everyone else are ok weather wise next week,,,,but if this thing hits it can very well impact football opening day,,,unless you guys think it moves slower or for FJAY out to sea ? If it hits 9 days away,,,,oh my
most models are pretty consistent with no landfall within the next 240 hours...or 10 days...think it will be day 11 with landfall which would bring us to Tuesday the 12th. Really believe from all the models that landfall will be within 200 miles of the nc/sc border. North or south. THAT is a total guess.
Amazingly...and its really pretty nuts, the agreement with models is alarming. Slight placement and a bit in pressure...but overall...haven't seen this kind of agreement since you know who.
sorry to quote myself but the GFS just said what agreement and made landfall in NYC. Damn Amercian models.
quote away weather guru,,,,,I am really enjoying reading the blogs and looking at models,,,,,the science is amazing but the guesstimating is comical at times,,, and Im not talking about on this thread but on weather forums elsewhere
yeah...really beware of the internet and articles you read. What they are killing is several sites have made make believe cones that depict it going into the gulf of mexico with a direct hit on Houston and coast again. It was all over the place later. It was a ridiculous cone too. It was like 50 miles wide even 10 days out...absurd. Latest EURO has landfall in SC and latest GFS has Irma cutting through N.J from south to north. Now...that is about a 100 mile swing west for the GFS and I kind of doubt that for one major reason..its the GFS. Going by the EURO...and this will be interesting to follow....is that landfall continues to be around the 12th of September. Pretty consistent with that. In fact the EURO's path is pretty close to what it was before. Strength too. CAT 4 OR 5 at landfall. So far out though but the EURO does have a history of grabbing on to an idea and when it shows it over and over? Its a pretty solid model. We shall see. It still has 20 runs before landfall. 2 a day.
Hey Jay or anyone else I will google it but have the states EVER been hit with a CAT 5 Hurricane ? I mean its kinda like the MILLER A or B with winter snowstorms , conditions have to be absolutely perfect for a 5 to happen , no ? ---> and has it happened ? A Cat 3 does tremendous damage I can't imagine a 4 or 5 .
not sure cbg how many but oh yeah. Andrew and Hugo come to mind. Im sure there have been many..like over a dozen. Will check now.
