Texas and Louisiana getting hammered UNBELIEVABLE .....ok weather geeks whats going to happen in the Carolinas ? IRMA ?
Looking at upper level forecast map, the low pressure trough that would've pushed it out to sea seems to weaken as it gets close. Currently I'd say split the difference between those 2 models. Hate to say I can see the N FL - Carolinas in play..... but it's WAAAAY to early. Looking at satelite, I'd say it'll be named a depression today (if the circulation closes off), but then slow to strengthen until it gets near the Lesser Antilles (windward isles) then has the potential to "Blow Up" Perfect Scenario: It turns into a slow moving BEAST and leisurely cruises the atlantic, and I take the week off to chase waves and surf before it fizzles out in the cold North Atlantic on that note, I'm caught up with work today, so I'm off to continue rebuilding my house......I finally got cabinets but maybe I should leave them in boxes * also, the poor peeps of Texas may get some more tropical moisture by the end of the week
Yep Sb...ingredients are all there. Irma the name. Southeast needs to monitor. Not enough info beyond that.
Now if this was Xmas and Snow you were talking about I would be excited,,,,,this aint doing it for me
Also think Irma strengthens quicker. She might even be a hurricane by tomorrow night. GFS model wants to scare New Jersey on north and quite honestly? The east coast needs to follow this one VERY closely.
Good call..... Aunt Irma's full of fire. I thought some cooler water and dry air would impede her a bit, but was wrong. Saw this this morn: Kinda curious how he subtlely dismisses the EURO and focuses on GFS. Hopefully for a reason But seeing the late run of the GFS (900mb?!?!?!) I think theyre jumping the shark Latest update seems to be following EURO though
ok Stinky or JayWeather guy or whoever else can answer this,,,I watched this Joe Montone sounding guy in the video,,,,is best case scenario that the upper level cutoff weaken that ridge sooner rather than later ? So that it would allow Irma to head north but then hook out to sea ? I would think the longer that ridge guides Irma West the worse for the States , am I wrong ?
When you say best case...to miss everyone or the east coast. This could travel into the GOM. Steering right now says no...but that could change. Yes...he is correct. It could do what many have done and head north to about NC and start hooking wide right. I dont see that as a chance right now...but he is totally correct.
Do u think it is most likely the ridge does not weaken and this heads into the Gulf of Mexico ? OR is it just way too early to tell that ? If what "Joe Montone "/ the guy in Stnkys video, says is true that the ridge might weaken , I guess it heads north but anyones guess which direction, no guarantee that it hooks out to sea and the East coast would be in jeopardy . When I say best case I mean if this ridge DOES weaken sooner and IRMA misses everyone and stays out to sea , I realize even if the ridge weakens no guarantee what direction this thing heads,,,,,Imjust trying to understand this stuff
Every model run has displacement of high pressures from the previous run...this thing will remain a question mark until the weekend...and then you can begin to narrow in which coast is more likely...its going to be a real tough call CBG until then. Only thing certain is there is nothing CURRENTLY to slow down its intensity..and at some point along the journey, a CAT 5 is likely. The big question besides the track is whether or not things stay favorable to maintain. No idea.
I hear ya Jay,,,and again I know its wayyyy early but those pics don't lie this thing is there and big !
darn thing already has a well defined eye in the last 2 frames. Not liking this one at all. Cat 5 in the next 48 hours would not shock me. It has plenty of fuel and no real obstructions.
sb....i missed the part of your post that i highlighted. THAT is a very valid point. Heres the problem. The EURO has done rather well so far in this tropical system. For some reason, the "experts" are liking how the GFS is handling the first 4 days...therefore riding the rest of the model after 4 days. Latest GFS wants to bring it due east of NC and then north for about 100 miles...still well out in the Atlantic...then curve it out to sea. POSSIBLE. Many reasons to struggle with the GFS handling the future....one being it has a sub 900 storm near Bermuda...which would sink that Island in about 2 hours. Doubt that strength. Again...back and forth and some kind of consensus on which body of water it makes its home by the end of this weekend.
I was reading it dipped a little south of where they expected, does this mean it has a better chance of getting closer to the states or can it hook north and out to sea anyway. A few posts mentioned Gulf of Mex., if it does make it into the Gulf is it too early to say whether it would make that expected north or NE hook heading back across Florida? I normally don't worry much but just rented out my house and moved into a hurricane/tornado magnet. I know my county has been pretty safe over the last 50 years for being in Florida so not too worried though.
