I make other assumptions, too. I assume nobody wants to pick a Kicker or a Punter with the #1 overall, for instance. I think it would be a hard sell to convince anybody to tank for an RG, or another DE. I think most posts here and most media articles refer to the idea of getting a QB. I'm with you, though--check my post history in the Draft Forum for the last several years, and you'll see that I'm an unabashed supporter of trading down. I want the Jets to not have the #1 pick. I want Petty or Hack (or both) to step up and show me something. I want the O-line to step up and show me that they won't be the worst in the league. I want the Defense to show me that they can stand up to being on the field 70% of every game and still not be gassed when December rolls around. I'll take those things, along with the 3rd or 5th or 7th pick overall (The Jets are going to be bad, folks) over the #1 overall in a heartbeat.
2020 anyone?? If this league wasn't so tilted towards offense, having a FQB wouldn't be so critical. We really can't compare modern NFL football with years past because of all the rule changes have made it critical to get a FQB by any means necessary. Now if that means pseudo tanking by jettisoning all your vets, that's what you do. You do what you have to do to put your team in position to get a FQB period! Especially in a town like this with sports options other than the Jets. Petty otoh, is done here as the organization has moved on from him. Petty was sacrificed last year to keep Hack safe from an OLine that couldn't block kittens. Now this year Hack has to show something other than potential to prove he can be not just a serviceable QB, but a FQB. That's gonna be hard to do with an HC coaching to win every game and keep his job beyond this year. If Hack proves not to be the FQBoTF, the Jets have to be in position either by record or by trade, to land a FQB in this draft. If that means pseudo-tanking, or outright tanking, so be it. A mediocre near or slightly above .500 record means nothing without the hope that a FQBoTF would bring. The Jets are treading water right now with a fanbase that is just about finished with them. The new Stadium hasn't been the panacea I'm sure they thought it would be. It didn't help to have priced out all the loyal fans for a more corporate based one. It won't help one bit to go 6-10 again, or 5-11 or even 7-9 or 8-8. Quiet as its kept, I have a feeling the FO and Ownership realizes this although they would never publically say it. In the big picture, if being mediocre is the idea, then they'll be fine. They want to take that quantum leap forward, they will have to take a quantum leap backwards to do it. Cimini is right. The 2017 New York Jets will not be historically bad, but they will be pretty damn bad. The reality is, they actually would help themselves by being pretty damn bad if not historically bad. Lets all hope it's bad with a plan.
Does that mean this years Oline can block kittens? If so, that's GREAT news, and we're already ahead of the game. Somehow, I think even declawed disabled kittens will blow through this line like it wasn't even there.
Joe Flacco, 18th overall Aaron Rodgers, 24th overall Ben Roethlisberger, 11th overall Peyton Manning, 1st overall (Colts) Peyton Manning, Free Agent (Broncos) Drew Brees, Free Agent Trent Dilfer, Free Agent Brad Johnson, Free Agent Kurt Warner, Free Agent Eli Manning, Trade Tom Brady, 6th round Russell Wilson, 3rd Round That's all the Super Bowl winning QBs since 2000 (including 1999 NFL season). ONE Super Bowl has been won by a team with a starting QB that was the #1 pick of that team. I'm not saying that a #1 pick QB can never win--that would be ridiculous. What I'm saying is that the dogged insistence by some folks on this board, and in this fan base, that the ONLY way out of mediocrity is to have the #1 pick and to use that pick on a sure-fire-HOF-FQB is flat out insane. There are clearly other ways to get to the top of the mountain. Sure the Pats got lucky with a 6th rounder and nobody can count on that. Hard to put a lot of hope into signing a grocery bagger and handing him a football like the Rams did, too. Fair enough. Then, for the sake of argument, let's just forget all about the other rounds of the draft, the potential trades or FA acquisitions, and just look at the other three 1st round picks here: 11th, 18th, and 24th. And none of them were the first guys taken. Tell me again why the Jets need to pick first?
Good post. We're in solid agreement about the rebuild; getting rid of old, overpaid players; the job that Mac is doing with the draft, not tanking, and not throwing a 20 year-old kid on the field with a shit team around him. I don't really see how the last item applies, however, since you think that Mac is doing a good job with the draft and are excited about the team's young talent. If the Jets draft a QB in the 1st round, and start him, they wouldn't be throwing him on the field with a shit team around him. I appreciate the list of QBs who have won the SB and weren't 1st round picks. I knew there were some, but not that many. Still, today's NFL is very different than when Johnny Unitas and Bart Starr played. I think Unitas, Staubach, and Warner could probably/possibly still win a SB, but I'm not as sure about Bart Starr and Joe Montana, and I don't think that Stabler, Theisman, Hostetler, Rypien or Johnson could win one in today's NFL. A number of those guys were game managers who were carried to SB wins by their defenses and rushing attacks. I'm not sure that I believe that can happen any more, so don't think that list is really germaine to the conversation. Just because the Jets have the first pick doesn't mean that they'd necessarily draft a QB with it. Hack could prove to be their QB of the future this season, so they could trade down, take a stud edge rusher or a stud LT. They could like a QB who is not considered one of the top two QBs and trade down a little and get him. Because of the importance of QBs in today's NFL, and the dearth of enough quality QBs, teams tend to over draft QBs even though scouting evaluation is better today than it was even 5-10 years ago. Hopefully, the Jets wouldn't fall into that trap. I don't think the team would fall into the trap of putting all the frustration and pressure of the last half century of futility on the QB's shoulders, either. The way that Mac has handled Hack and Petty to date tells me that he wouldn't. The fans, however, as you know, will be a different story. If they do wind up drafting a QB in the top 4-5 picks in the 2018 draft, I'm sure that many Jets fans will be booing him if he doesn't average 3-4 TD throws a game, a 70% completion percentage, and have a QB rating in the mid 90s.
Since the draft is a crap shoot, I don't think that's solid statistical evidence. I think that at least some, if not a significant portion of it is luck. It depends upon teams' needs and whether they're willing and able to find a trade partner. For instance, the Jets would have taken Favre in the 1st round if they could have. The NFL is different today than it was even 10-15 years ago. Scouting has gotten better or at least more scientific. There are more ways to evaluate players, more film, more psychological testing, more is known about the players' character. The fact that so many great QBs were drafted outside the first round is an indictment of previous scouting methods and evaluations. The game centers more around the QB now, so more and more QBs will be taken higher. Anyone who follows the draft knows that QBs have been getting overdrafted for the last 5-10 years because of the dearth of good QBs. As more QBs are drafted higher, the odds are that some of those QBs taken high (who might have been 2nd round picks, or lower, in previous decades) will wind up winning a SB.
I agree with all of this unless neither Hack nor Petty prove that they are the Jets' answer at QB. If they both flop, or leave room for significant doubt, I want the Jets to have the top pick so that they have a ton of options at their disposal. If they love Allen and/or Darnold and think that one or both are the answer at QB, then they'll be assured of getting him. If there's a very good edge rusher or LT prospect sitting there at the 1st pick in the 2nd round they can take him, or if not, they can possibly trade down, add a pick or two, and still get a player who can help them.
I haven't seen that many saying that the Jets have to get the 1st pick. Most of the comments I've seen have been top 3-4. There is a definite advantage to having the top pick, however. You then get the first pick of every round and you get more good players to choose from. Picking lower down, you have less (and by the time you get to the lower rounds, far less) players to choose from among in the draft. The Jets miss out on players in the draft every year that could really fill needs and help them. As long as the team is sucking, it would be nice to be picking first in a good draft for a change, and not first in a draft with little talent.
I with you, and it sounds like KOB is on the same page. Still, this is not the narrative on most of the threads here, and it's not the narrative coming from any media outlet. I agree with the consensus--the Jets desperately need a QB. Yet, the last thing they need to do is draft the next Peyton Manning and give him the same treatment the Texans gave David Carr. I would be a lot more excited about bringing in a QB if the Jets had picked or signed some O-Line talent over the last couple of years.
Ok.........me thinks the odds would favor the jets getting the guy if they are #1 pick. Does anyone have any confidence in this team selecting the guy at any other pick? No way. This franchise is totally snake bit and being in the top draft slot creates a better probability, provided they have the right supporting evidence. It's still a crap shoot but u have a better punchers chance at #1. Plus, this would shut down the internet around here with the anxiety and speculation. Pure gold.
I understand your thoughts about the Jets OL. I agree. I've said numerous times that the Jets should have taken their future starting LT in the 2016 draft, or at least added a topnotch RT prospect. Hopefully, with a ton of cap space, Mac will sign some quality FA OL. Picking in the top 5, the Jets should be able to add a QB and several OL prospects as well. If our young WRs pan out this season, and ASJ and Leggett do as well, that would only leave QB, OL and RB on offense to address. If Shell proves to be a solid starter at RT, and if Beachum can revert to pre-injury form, the OT positions could be set, and if the Jets draft their future LT he could start at one of the OG spots for a year. Their OL could be better in a hurry. The DL is solid. The S positions should be rock solid. On D the most glaring needs probably will be OLB pass rusher, #1 CB and ILB.
30% of all Super Bowls have been won by a QB picked #1, 43% of all SBs have been won by a top 5 pick. If your intention was to show you don't need to spend a top draft pick to find a QB you didn't convince me. Every QB picked in the top 5 certainly won't win a Super Bowl but it's a lot more likely than an UDFA. By the way Namath was drafted #1 also, the first #1 draft pick to win a SB. See above, 30% of all Super Bowls have been won by 17 #1 picks (#1 picks winning more than one counted more times) out of roughly 13000 draft picks since 1967 So .13% of all draft picks since 1967 have won 30% of all Super Bowls, I would say solid statistical evidence suggests a QB picked with a high draft pick gives you a huge advantage over a later pick.
You generally have a very good chance at getting one of the best, if not the best player in the draft, a much better chance than if you pick 10th, 15th, 20th I'm not going to reply to more manipulated data, referring to Eli as a trade rather than what he was, a #1 pick who has only played for one team in his career, same with Elway in your previous post, tells it all.
Just how good will this Jet defense really be in 2017? As good as both safeties can eventually be, they are still rookies who are going to experience some growing pains.( not too many teams start two rookies at safety- for a reason) Why I hope the fanbase are patient with both safeties. CB position has major question marks. Will the Jets generate enough pressure on the Qb, to stop passing attacks they will see next year. Again not to be negative but it's all about finding pieces to the puzzle this year.( who can be part of their longterm future). Also they have to find elite pass rushers, and Cb's. ( passing league), Being great run stuffing team isn't as important if you can't stop the pass.
That's not manipulated data. We can trade for a guy who was picked #1 just like any other team. Is that somehow not a viable option? The argument here isn't that #1 picks are bad. The argument here is that you don't have to have the #1 pick to win. The Giants and Broncos didn't have the #1 pick.
Everyone agrees with the rebuild, how many times do people have to defend the Jets by posting this? The question is executing it properly. The Browns have been doing it for 5-10 years and can't get it right. Its not automatic that a rebuild turns into a Super Bowl team in 2-4 years. We can get this wrong and be in the same place 3 years from now. If you don't think that's possible then take off your shades. I don't care about wins this year, I just want and hope Hack or Petty start at some point and show they are the future. It would be great going in 2018 not needing a new young QB. The young LB's to me will show if the GM knows what he's doing. Lee and Lorenzo must show they can start and make plays. If not, then its a major step back in the development of this team. I just need some hope and without a QB you are hopeless in the NFL
314 I agree with most of this-----people say many things about how good our defense will be I am beyond concerned about the Linebackers. We have needed a legit OLB and have not had one since John Abraham and it appears we might not even have insider LBs now,,,,,I hope these guys show something this year .
Trading for a guy who was picked #1 is difficult. Not many teams will do that. The only reason the Chargers did is that Eli said that he would never play for them after they drafted him (and maybe before, I don't remember). Even if the team is willing to trade the pick (either prior to or following the draft), it will cost a king's ransom. That is hardly an ideal way to start that rookie QBs career. You said that you didn't want to take a young QB and then throw him on the field with a shit team around him. When teams have to give up multiple #1 picks and a lot of picks to move up to get their QB, that's what happens. With the absence of draft picks (especially #1 and #2 picks) in the following drafts, unless a team already has a good, solid team, then that young QB will be playing with shit around him. No, one doesn't have to have the #1 pick to win, but it can sure help if one drafts wisely and is fortunate enough to have a great, strong, deep draft in which to capitalize on their top pick in each round.
