Kentucky Derby ,who do we like ?

Ralebird is going to wait to see who wins and then shame you for not picking them.

 

I think it will be worse than sloppy, 100% chance of rain today, tomorrow and Saturday. Going to The Oaks tomorrow but tickets for derby getting crazy so hitting a few derby parties instead.

Because of the rain i'm just going to take a chance on a few of the longshots, i think the jockeys are going to play a bigger role than usual.

 

My three picks are:

Win - Sweet Chariots
Place - Wingless Eagle
Show - Best in Show

 

This is a very tough race to handicap. None of these horses have run with this many horses in the field & None of these horses have ever raced in the rain and slop. Going to come down to position and jockey.

1- Classic Empire has best chance to win and best position at 14
2- Irish War Cry beat Empire in the past, but also got crushed by 20 lengths recently
3- Practical Joke is a big nimble athletic horse that has a great Trainer in Chad Brown, but might be screwed at position 19

My favorite longshots are at opposite ends.

Lookin at Lee (20-1) at the dreaded 1 position. However, this horse is fast enough to get off the rail, and is being riden by Corey Lanerie who is leading rider at Churchill.

And my favorite longshot is Patch (30-1), out of the 20th spot. This is so interesting because this horse has no left eye. So it wont be able to see the other 19 horses. Think its a perfect position for him to be in, and jockey could play a big part. How fuckin cool would it be if a 1 eyed horse wins the derby?

 

Groucho likes High Hat by a nose

 

It's times like these where you really miss Sundayjack.

 

Its very bizarre to not have any Baffert trained horses this year. Cant sleep on Irap (20-1) as Doug O'Neill's only horse, or Gormley(15-1) being ridden by Victor Espinoza

 

Exceller.

I detest horse racing. It's awful. Feeding starving people could be done a hella well better than this. Horses getting shipped into Mexico and Canada are suffering a worse fate than before.

PETA makes me laugh, though. What are they feeding their cats and dogs from the rendering plant?

 

ok,tack may be in better shape than originally thought. rain chances for tomorrow are diminishing so it really depends on how it handles todays rain.worst case scenario is a soft but not sloppy track i think

 

Was just about to say the same thing. Looks like rain will be stopping for the most part around 3-4 o'clock. Churchill drains really well so it shouldn't be all that bad by 6pm.

Track is going to be sloppy for The Oaks today if anyone is betting it. Been pouring down pretty much non stop here since about 5 yesterday and doesn't look to let up much during the day. Wind will be 15 to 20 mph adding another weather element to consider.

 

Wicked Lick (30-1), Brian Hernandez is my best long shot play today. In 17 rides at Churchill has 4 wins, 4 place and 5 show.

Sailor’s Valentine (30-1), Corey Lanerie. Lanerie is another of the better Churchill jockeys so this might be a decent long shot play. In 31 rise he 8-6-6

 

You can use equibase.com for great info and if you cant find the form

 

As expected, extremely sloppy. The early turf races are moving to the slop to save it for the stakes races later.

Been betting across thw board on long shots with the more accomplished jockeys. Hit the 4th and the 5th race with Lanerie and Hernandez, won just enough to pay for the next race with a little left over for beer.

We left the track to head to the bar, have 3 bookies here, free food and is dry.