Hey..regardless...unusual to say that a storm of this potential..key word...potential..magnitude is a rare bird...because this has oh boy written all over it. High winds....heavy snow..winds near blizzard. Its got a lot to offer. Thundersnow will be all over the area too. Bombing a low pressure like this will bring thunder and lightning.
ha!! brook my man...miss you very much buddy. Brook..heads up..you are off from work on Tuesday...enjoy!!
Well, today's storm was fun. Snowed hard as hell for a few hours. Then it stopped. Too warm out to accumulate much. Less than an inch on dirt, nothing on the roads. Melted already. 1-3" predicted for Tuesday.
that gfs has been steady with this so far big numbers for north jersey nyc and the hudson valley. doesn't seem to change much run to run
steady as she goes with the GFS. Have to say much has changed since I tracked this stuff. Peeking in and out and watching the GFS and even the improvements on the NAM while the EURO has been wildly inconsistent is a huge shock. Big numbers...and the big ? that sits out there is this....huge numbers with still 72 hours to go leaves some wiggle room. Only thing written in stone is that it will snow. Even if the phase is too early...too late...doesn't occur...its going to snow. What snow lovers do not want to see is a model run by one of the top 3 that show something much different. Dont see that happening at this point. BROOK: If this storm does what its modeled to do....it sticks around til at least late Tuesday/Tuesday night, yeah...could easily get a 2 day break sir.
and not to keep beating the same drum.....feel free to keep reminding me about the way above ocean temps for this time of the year will through in the sleet word for some. How will the storm and precip types handle this. Still think that might be the unspoken thingy in many analysis of the storm to this point. Could see a major and I mean a major sleet storm for someone east of I95.
Jay /FJF or anyone else if this storm trends farther WEST then I think the coast could get shafted and have mixing issues / but that would mean that myself and FJAY would be dancing in the street as those higher numbers could head OUR way am I wrong ? I dont want to be greedy and would be happy if the storm stayed as it is modeled right now and EVERYONE gets snow and no mixing ! As I said I Want all the models especially as Jay said the " big 3 " to not waver and if we can get past tomorrow with them spitting out the same solutions lets then look at short range models . ps not to get too far ahead as we still dont know what will happen with this storm but the long range models are TALKING UP THE 17 TH AND 18TH also !
if this storm happens as modeled it will be the 2nd big storm to fall on that date. we had a monster storm march 14 1993 that laid down a bunch of snow. i remember riding it out in a friends apt playing poker for 24 hrs straight.
OK ,,up at 4am and looking at models and maps and all I can say is WOW ! Get ready kids its getting closer and its coming!
My big 3 sources: TWC - 1-3" Accu - 3-4" WU - 1-3" I'm just going to guess that TWC and WU use the same models as they always agree. Interesting the Accu is saying 3-4". They are usually more conservative. Also says roads will be snowpacked so...fuck.
i would say 3-5 is a good estimate. you might have some mixing isssues and a change over to rain at the end. a little more agreement between the gfs and euro. euro still a bit more east but both give big numbers. TWC has me in the 15-20" range right now. gfs backed off a bit with the 06z model and has me in the 12-15. either way, bring it.
Alright! I dunno which one of you weathernutz conjured up this monster that coming on Mon/Tues. but knock it off ! Its almost spring and our local guys are already calling for 12"+ here in Central PA and we're 2 days out. Brook? You're about to find out why Ariens has the rep it does! You guys just pushed my spring fishing back about a month... Thanks!
FJF it appears the GFS was alone and is starting to agree wit the other models---this looks like one crazy storm,,,,,,FJAY OR ANYONE ELSE wHAT IS THIS Miller A---B or combo ?
It's such a funky area to predict. Weather coming from the West tends to take a weird jump North right before it gets to me so when it stays on course it's a surprise. The low pressure system coming from the South I have no idea.
starting to get nervous, gfs trending a little further east. dropping the big numbers to around 14" in central pa. didn't like this run too much. looking for 15"+ i did like the nam though
