Here in Fair Lawn, NJ (Bergen County) I woke up at 5 this morning and not one snowflake was falling. When I left for work at 6 it was snowing but nothing was sticking yet. They say the snow will stop around noon and we might end up with 1-3. They also said we would get 1-3 overnight and we got nothing so who knows.
I think you will be around 3. no more. Nothing sticking to roads. i woke up to 2" in dutchess county. grounds to warm. Now we start to watch the big one
Total dud here in Woodland Park, NJ. As of around 8:00AM only a dusting on grassy areas with the roads just wet. Air temp still 38 degrees. What gives, FJF? Did it simply not get cold enough fast enough?
FJAY temp dropped like 5 degrees in the last half hour--------that said Tuesday is still there on ALL the models ! Still time but if we keep getting model agreement and this happens all I can say is Merry Xmas my brother ! Ps Brook you have a good shot of using your new toy and CMAN I hope there is still gas in the Ariens ! Now lets see how this plays out ! PSS Hey Jayster you can still hop a flight back here its not too late !
the NWS always has these great write ups....this concerning the storm for Tuesday...and why it will be a really tough one to predict until the leader of this storm enters the USA around Sunday. FROM THE NWS: Models continue to strongly signal potential for a strong coastal storm during the Monday Night into Tue Night period in response to interaction between northern stream...Pac...and sub-tropical energies across the Central and Southern US. The complexity of this interaction is lending to quite a bit of model spread on how these energies phase and develop a closed low or lows over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and into NE U.S. This spread translates into quite a bit of uncertainty on the evolution(track/intensity)of a resultant southern low intensifying and tracking up the coast Mon Night into Tue Night. Expect quite a bit of wavering in model storm track over the next few days based on a complex interaction of energies which are still over the Pacific and Arctic...and models inherent difficulty handing northern and southern stream phasing Basically its stating a potential for a major phase...and much talk about phasing...and how the models will bounce around big time until Sunday/Monday morning...so take the runs with a grain of salt and look to the models that begin to agree..which will not be all of them with this setup. MAJOR POTENTIAL...major..with this storm...also a nice bust potential.
I think this shifted farther north then modeled, along with some dryer air to the north and warm temps and warmer ground. but i am overacheiving up here in northern dutchess. Thanks for posting jay. this should be interesting TWC has bought in hook line and sinker. Euro showing a more new england storm with out the second low. Gfs has 2 lows phasing and bombing out over jersey and nyc. gfs snow map right now is like porn to me and @CBG
wow..just saw euro and gfs. Yeah...trending north but snow lovers dont want anymore north or west trends. Already looking like rain snow line is getting closer to I95. South Jersey RIGHT NOW looks like more rain...but again, wouldnt read into it that much. What is beginning to look pretty certain is that you guys will get buried. Over a foot for many and would count out near 20 for some.
Hey Jay. I just looked at the Euro too,,,wow. I will take the model runs right now, I am not selfish !
from what I have learned and what weather geeks say,,,,the Euro and Ukie are both very good when in agreement especially inside 100 hours to the event . Its kinda like setup guy handing baseball to Mariano -----deadly . Still time but both models bury the coast and LI with the entire metro area getting hammered
Huge runs...I mean huge...portions of eastern pa and nj into ny state get over a foot and half with some close to 2 feet. This setup has a ring to it....it has Miller A characteristics to it. Some of the whoppers in history have had this setup...but caution when you are dealing with phase locations. One thing is for certain...phase or no phase...because the system that will be brewing in the gulf of mexico will end up being the primary..its going to rain for a few and snow for many...just how much will be total dynamics. Its a real watcher.
I think a wise man , who moved to the Carolinas once said and I quote " I love Miller A's they have given us some of our best snowstorms ! " Phasing is big and I dont think we know for sure until it actually happens but we gotta get todays system out of here and Sundays setup needs be watched. I think the computer runs will say different things, hopefully they stay close to where they are now (A shift west would make me and FJAY even more giddy but I am happy where they show right now ) but what do u think Jayster , will we know for sure on Sunday or not until this happens Monday nite ?
Lol....I guess Im that guy in the Carolinas? Miller A's....love them...now this storm will be a Miller A...but needs some help. Not much though. NWS already has 80% chance of snow for Tuesday...this looks locked in. Now...east west track for you and FJF? Dont think it makes a difference at this point...not for you guys at all. The big question will be when this bombs. Off the coast of NJ is cutting it close. Its the difference between 6" or well over a foot. Its going to snow. It could be blizzard...very well could be.
this is going to be a fun one to track FJF..... Again....its going to snow...it will not miss. When does it bomb.
Correct me if i am wrong but the euro is showing more of a 1-2 punch with the gulf coast low then the low coming from the west correct? The gfs was doing bbetter with the phasing and bombing right off of jersey? seems like both give us good amounts just a duration difference right?
Seems like a slower phase which the euro is trying to keep the storm a bit east? 1 -2 punch is probably not how it will hit though. Tough call. Yeah...the final outcome is not far from each other fjf. Its how it gets there that is different. Here is something to really keep in mind and just hit me. I think last week I posted about current water temps in the Atlantic that the models might not be digesting. Because the Atlantic is showing temps for almost mid april...it would not surprise me if the some places...SOME..busted because of the high amount of sleet mixing it which will keep numbers down. That really needs to be watched.
