I've done this post better in the past. I was sloppy this time because I didn't do the research again. Basically there are very few QB's in the NFL draft that have amounted to anything when they got taken in the 2nd round outside the 36 pick. Cunningham is one of the few, on the 37, that was actually a great QB. Favre was the 33 pick in 1991 draft. Here's the link: http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?type=position Go look at what the 2nd round has produced since Cunningham was drafted outside the 36 picks and tell me that you really want the Jets to spend another pick in that range at this point when the team has so many holes. I'll go find my first post on the subject and put the link here because I actually did the research before that post and nothing that has happened since then has changed my mind. It's draft position value vs results that is at stake and teams drafting QB's later in the 2nd round have regretted the picks a few years later.
I don't want to speak for Br4D, nor get in the middle of a pissing contest, but what I get from his comments is that he's saying the odds don't favor finding a good, let alone a FQB, after the 36th pick. Could it happen? Sure, anything can happen, but if you're looking to get a potential FQB, even one you plan on sitting at first, you need to grab him early. (If I misunderstand your point Br4d, let me know.) This is why I say that if they don't grab Mahomes or Watson, they would be better off NOT using a pick on a QB this year.
The point was not that it is impossible to find a QB after the first 36 picks. It is however very unlikely and the teams that spend 2nd round picks to do that wind up regretting the pick, and I don't mean most of them I mean ALL of them since the Eagles took Cunningham in '85. Nobody has come up with a franchise QB in the 2nd round outside the 36 pick since 1985. I posted the link above so that people could go look for themselves. I believe the reason this is true is that the best QB prospects are ALL gone by the 36 pick and after that you basically have to just get lucky on your pick to have it work out. If this wasn't the case then surely one of the 24 QB's taken in the 2nd round outside the 36 pick would have become a star in the 31 years since Cunningham was taken on the 37 in 1985. The list of QB's taken outside the 36 and in the 2nd round since 1985: #47 Jack Trudeau #51 Billy Joe Tolliver #40 Matt Blundin #46 Tony Sacca #45 Todd Collins #60 Kordell Stewart #42 Tony Banks #42 Jake Plummer #60 Charlie Batch #50 Shaun King #53 Qunicy Carter #59 Marques Tuiasosopo #49 Kellen Clemens #64 Tarvaris Jackson #40 John Beck #43 Drew Stanton #56 Brian Brohm #57 Chad Henne #44 Pat White #48 Jimmy Clausen #57 Brock Osweiler #39 Geno Smith #62 Jimmy Garoppolo #51 Christian Hackenberg That's the list, the entire list since 1986. Tell me that anybody should want to spend a 2nd round pick outside the 36 on a QB based on the talent on that list. You have to pick QB's outside the top 36 picks for depth and maybe serendipity happening and getting you a Brady or Wilson or Prescott however you don't have to spend a really valuable pick to do it and based on the historical results spending a high pick like that doesn't help you. It probably gives you a marginally better chance at finding a franchise QB and it's just random that nobody has done that recently, however there are many great players that come out of the 2nd round and passing those guys up to take a Geno Smith or Kellen Clemens or Christian Hackenberg is just pissing in the wind. Could it work out? Sure but you can find your FS or T or OLB there so much more easily than you can find your FQB. Most of the FQB's come out of the 1st round and in the current NFL NONE have come out of the 2nd round after pick 36. That just is what it is. My original post on the topic, which was very well researched was likely in 2013 when we were moving on from Sanchez and for some reason I am having trouble pulling it up with the search function. Not sure why but my search results only go back to last year.
Also false. Esiason 38. Cunninham 37. The seven round draft has only been around since 1994. Since then, there have only been 25 QBs selected in the second round, and 5 of them have at least one ProBowl appearance (what that's worth varies, but it's hard to get in as a QB). As noted previously, some, like Charlie Batch and Shaun King were good value second round picks and certainly outperformed a lot of 1st round busts. One, Kaepernick doesn't have a ProBowl to his name, but did start in a Super Bowl. Three were selected by the Jets (Clemmons, Geno, and Hack) so they get a pass for sucking, as they were doomed from draft day on. I didn't go back and look at whether they were in the top 36 or not because I can't draw any conclusion from a field of 19 or 22 guys that's any more accurate than I can from a field of 25. This is a silly argument.
That's what I thought you were saying. And yes, the list should speak for itself. I'd be willing to bet that the teams that made those picks could've taken players that actually made an impact for them, but instead got almost nothing.
Thanks. I understand what he's saying, and am not trying to be in a pissing contest with him, I just strongly disagree with him regarding QBs. I agree that the best chances of finding a FQB are at the top of the 1st round.
It's not silly. It's reality. Go look at my followup. This is a really important point because it relates to opportunity vs value and for QB's the opportunity vs value is cutoff in the 2nd round at about pick 36. Again, if you don't understand the proposition do some research on it. Look at the site I posted and go back and look at the QB's actually picked in the ranges and what they turned into. Talent at QB in the NFL basically looks like 1st rounders all over the place plus a few high 2nd rounders plus a 3rd rounder, a 4th rounder, a 6th rounder and a UDFA. Spending a 2nd round pick on a QB is a wasted opportunity most of the time unless you're in the first 36 picks. The last QB who was genuinely really good who was taken in the 2nd round outside the first 36 picks was Cunningham in 1985, 31 seasons ago. Could you get a good QB in the 2nd anywhere? Sure, but nobody has done that recently and there have been a bunch of picks made in the attempt. Given that fact it makes sense to use that pick on a position where you can easily find a star player. You cannot easily find a star QB in the latter part of the 2nd round.
I get what you're saying. My point is that nobody is hitting on QBs in the late second precisely because nobody is taking QBs in the late second. Get me some numbers on how many total QBs have been selected in each round and what percentage are successful, then you might have an argument. There's no way to draw a conclusion from a sample size of 24 guys out of 660-ish second round draft picks.
I still don't agree - If you would have made a judgement regarding "FQB" based on only Eli Mannings first season, he would have been benched the rest of his remaining career. Sorry, you can't make a snap judgement on an QB starting his first season. Regarding Jets selecting one at 6......BIG IF on that one - from what I have read from many sources, they won't be taking one at #6 - again, nothing I've seen that would make a team reach at that selection to warrant cutting one of the other QB's on the roster.
Well knowledge is a dangerous thing AHAHA So not to be hypocritical I have said we draft a QB every year .. Based on Br4ds research it ...uh uh ...has to be Rnd 1? to get any quality or its a waste!! If we had already shit the bed royally at 2-14 for the 2018 draft this is a no brainer...but who knows if a FA gets here for 7-9 mehfest in 2017 With this whole enterprise in shambles I am still for the trade down at 6...however this Combine Friday is crucial for where I hope the FO picks Dazed and Confused...............
I never said you make a "snap". You evaluate what you have every year. Eli stunk his first year, but so did Elway, however, their teams had reason to believe in their abilities, which is why they started them their first year. They actually were able to carry their teams, unlike Sanchez. In Sanchez's case the waters were muddied because he had very good talent around him making him look better than he was, and frankly, had they not let that talent disappear, they wouldn't have had to go looking to draft Geno and set up the "competition that wasn't" that got Sanchez hurt and for all intents and purposes ended his career as a starter.
I bet they try to trade Geno if they bring in a VET QB and get a draftee..The Jets need lightening in a bottle ..it is what it is They will pick up an OL CB TE somewhere else Plus I don't think there is oodles of faith in Petty or Hack,,,Petty (a 4th rounder might be traded too ,,who knows??) hack is complete mystery meat ..chosen in 2nd round (unlucky) The CS suxs too...I cant see ANYBODY who can instruct QBs with Bowles Skeleton Crew on the FLying Dutchman?????...Hahaha
It doesn't have to be Round 1. It should not be Round 2 though unless we're in the top 4 picks or so. The reason is that the later 2nd Rounders at QB are about as likely to be stars as the people selected in the 3rd round, or 4th round, or 6th round or even undrafted. Why? Because QB is so important in the modern NFL that the position is picked clean of obvious value by pick 37 or thereabouts. A good QB prospect, a really good QB prospect is so valuable that if you get down to pick 37 and the guy is still on the board, well that's the NFL telling you that no matter what you think he's not really that obviously good. This is one of those market-based situations where the herd has stripped the market of all the best value by that point. What's left are the guys nobody is sure about except maybe you and if you're the only person sure about them, well you're betting you're smarter than the field and that's usually a bad bet. Really any of the QB's on that list I posted above could have gone in the 3rd round as easily as the 2nd. Many of them probably would have lasted to the 4th round if the team that picked them didn't have a hunch, which except in the case of Jake Plummer and maybe Kordell Stewart just didn't pan out at all. Other positions don't get picked as reliably clean as QB early in the draft. TE's and RB's and OG's and C's often aren't even seriously considered until the end of the 1st Round or so. Many other positions have a big glut of talent in a given year and that forces quality prospects down lower. So you're better off getting away from the QB's and towards the thicker positions in the draft for your 2nd Round pick, again unless it's in the top 4 or so in the 2nd round when it is reasonable to think that maybe somebody has slipped through to you.
Because there have been a lot of QB's drafted after the 1st Round over the years and some of them will come through if given the opportunity. However figuring out who is Joe Montana and who is Matt Schaub and who is a nobody waiting to happen is impossible once you get down to 1% chances at a superstar and 5% chances at a starter and 20% chances at a long-term quality backup and 74% chances at everything else. In the 1st Round you're talking maybe a 10% chance at a superstar and a 50% chance at a starter. That's the kind of odds it makes sense to spend a valuable pick on. You have at least a coin-flip you'll get a starter and every 4 or 5 years a superstar comes out of the draft. Sometimes you get 2 in a year.
Our D is good enough to compete .. By the end of the year the pass defense did tighten up finishing 16th with Revis Continent .. run defense was 11th. We have more to build on then most of the league. Pass rush has always been an issue but the coaches have always masked it with scheme .. the demise of Revis has Jets fans who have been lock down corner spoiled confused. Good Coverage is a luxury in the league in this era and we were just above league average. Where we failed was consistency and situational football. Lee in his second year will be much improved in TE coverage .. and that's before any additions we make in the offseason. On offense our WR Core (Enunwa, Smith, Marshall, Johnson, Peake) will be exciting and I think Decker will survive the housecleaning, our new OC is a route running Guru and the WR's will reap the benefits. Jenkins showed promise if he can keep clean. We will have the money to make key aquisitions after the cleaning and I'm sure LT AND TE will be addressed by the end of the offseason.
Just wanted to add: think about the '83 draft. 6 QB's taken in the 1st Round in a 28 team draft. Were they the best prospects in that draft? Not by a longshot after you got past Elway. However they were clearly quality QB prospects and when the NFL sees a quality QB prospect he goes in the 1st Round. In the 2014 draft you had 4 QB's taken by pick 36. The best prospects in the draft? No, again not by a longshot but they were quality prospects at the most important position in the game and logic and market value dictated that they would go early on. In 2013 we had a bunch of QB's evaluated but only one went in the top 36. Why? Because Buffalo was stupid enough to take him there. The NFL as a whole had concluded that there were no quality QB prospects in 2013 and anybody who spent a 1st or 2nd Round pick on a QB was bucking the market wisdom.
So I get it.. gun to your head ,,,5 sec decision all things being equal get a QB round one...Avoid round 2 However if you are a #4 picker and some left in round 2 ...go for it This year the Jets are a num 6 which limits us to round one really I know you see no value at QB draftees this year...Would the Combine change your mind?
The QB's this year are better than 2013 and probably a bit worse than 2014. Trubisky just doesn't have enough experience at this point to warrant a high draft pick on a team that has no QB. He might be a decent late 20's pick for a team like the Steelers or Pats who do not have the expectation that their QB is good for 3 more years at this point. This would be like the Aaron Rodgers pick by the Packers in 2005. For the Jets he would be that dreaded thing: a project forced onto the field too early. Watson apparently has mechanics issues that will need to be corrected by his NFL team but he has the leadership thing down. Again, a project who will be forced onto the field too early with the Jets. Mahomes is a trendy pick right now but all the major scouting groups have him as a 2nd round pick, some a 3rd round pick. That's is going to have to be reconciled before anybody spends the 6 pick on him. The Combine really should not be sending players stock shooting up the board. Risers should be rising because the Combine is doing what it is good at, which is dropping player's stock when they turn out to be not the physical specimen their college athletic department made them out to be. Kizer is the one guy who should get serious looks as an early 1st Rounder. He's the guy I think will wind up in Cleveland when the Browns are done trading around early in the draft. He's also a bit of a project though, just not quite as much as Trubisky and Watson. He started 2 years at Notre Dame and he's the guy who best fits the package of what you'd expect a franchise QB to look like coming out of college. However that was what got Blake Bortles drafted on the 3 by the Jaguars. Sometimes looks can be deceiving. I guess I'd be fine with the Jets trading the 6 down and taking one of the QB's, however none of them is a franchise QB at this point. They all have too many questions and too much work to do to reach that plateau before the draft. Kizer is the closest but none of them has the 3 years as a starter that you really want to see out of a franchise QB and none of them is a Cam Newton-like physical phenom that is likely to dominate on that characteristic alone if they can get the pro game down.
