His mechanics are awful. He might be able to work on it. Obviously, the guy wasn't coached up in college. If he shows up combine time with improvements he will be a first round pick. If they are still garbage he'll be a 3rd rounder on arm talent alone.
They're not orthodox, but more often than not his ball placement is solid. Mechanics only worry me when a guy is inaccurate as a result of them. But if a guy is accurate despite sloppy mechanics, does it really matter? He'll definitely go top 50 regardless of what happens in the combine.
His footwork is non-existent and he is overly reliant on his arm strength. It will get him in trouble against faster defenders. He absolutely has a great arm, you cannot deny that one. I did notice he has a windup and is fighting against the stigma of the Air Raid offense. If the Jets select him [on a trade-down], they cannot play the redshirt game with him entirely. He should be the backup QB the min he's drafted so he gets the reps needed to clean up those bad habits. Kid absolutely has talent.
Forget him falling out of the 1st round, and even out of the top 10. That train has already left the station. If you want him, you take him on the 6, if he's even there then.
And even if he fell, I wouldn't take him. They already have two projects, unless they want to toss both aside, which they won't. If they don't take Mahomes or Watson, forget QB until next year. Beef up the weapons around the QB - RB, TE, WR, OL, and that will make a big difference no matter who they play at QB.
As I pointed out before, his mechanics are like a baseball infielder: his body may be going one way, but he can still get the ball to the target. Is it preferred? No, but his body of work proves he can make it work consistently, and when plays break down - as they will with the Jets OL - he's a guy who can turn a sure loss into positive gains.
Mahomes is already catapulted into top 10, seriously, the article about Shanahan that I told you about was a couple months old, the scouts are already salivating at seeing Mahomes at the combines just to see if he can justify their desire to take him in top ten.
You can't play that way at the NFL level and expect to be successful. His playing style works perfectly in college, but in the NFL he needs to have better mechanics, throwing off your back foot all of the time or across your body will cause interceptions. This reminds me a little bit of how Stafford did when he first came into the league but eventually in order to become a good QB, he had to improve his footwork. Stafford however had much better mechanics coming out of college. He's def boom or bust with exceptional arm talent, but arm talent can only get you so far.
You absolutely can, if you have special arm talent. Watch Aaron Rodgers's feet... his weight transfer can be terrible and rushed at times. It's apparent that he doesn't care much about his feet inside or out of the pocket. But he still generates the torque necessary to fit accurate passes into tight windows, and his accuracy doesn't suffer. I don't mean to compare Mahomes to Rodgers, but guys like Russell Wilson, Rodgers, and Cam all have "sloppy" feet in a traditional sense and are able to succeed as passers just fine. Other guys like Bortlers suffer as a result of their terrible lower body mechanics. It depends on player to player, but I don't think it'll be too much of a problem with Mahomes from what I've seen so far. I'd say Kizer more so than Mahomes is a player whose accuracy ran hot and cold this year because he played with a wider base and that affected his weight transfer/led to him sailing passes and even one hopping posses on comeback routes on the opposite hash. I do agree that Mahomes is a boom or bust prospect, though. And that his success will also be dependent on whether his coach or team embraces his unique style or attempts to coach that style out of him. With players like him, it's imperative that you embrace the chaos, which makes him great. Yes, it will be painful when he throws a game ending interception in a big game because of his gunsligner mentality, but he's the kind of guy who will come back the next week and attempt a similar pass of that same ill and win you a game. It remains to be seen whether his game transfers like Russell Wilson has, who also has a problem with leaving pockets early, which leads to him having to create "magic" to bail himself out or a Manziel whose game didn't transfer at all.
He's no Johnny Manziel, there are plenty of videos of Mahomes where he sits in the pocket and steps up with good form and makes great downfield throws with accuracy, it's a plus that he can play well while scrambling, the question that I would ask is, can he read through progressions? I don't know too much about the Texas Tech offense so I'm not sure if it's a one read offense or a standard offense where he has to go through receiver progression.
Their offense is a spread, air-raid offense. It offers some of the most inflated numbers for QBs I have ever seen!
I'm saying I'm tired of spending resources to bring in guys who have to do a lot of on the job learning. And no, I don't know that he'd learn from it. The last two young QB's to have the job, meaning Sanchez and Geno, didn't learn much from their mistakes despite ample opportunity to do so. We forget that in camp in 2013 in the first exhibition game Sanchez threw a pick-6 from his own 5 yard line to a LB in the flat. That was after 4 seasons of starting for the Jets and with the knowledge that everybody was looking at him cross-eyed because he kept doing things like that.
What is your take on Mahomes? Is he a product of the system, or does the system work well because of him and not despite of him?
Actually, look at the footage, and you'll see that he usually DOES throw off his front foot and with decent - if not textbook - mechanics. It's when plays break down and he has to improvise that he tosses "purity" aside and does whatever he needs to to complete the play.
Wilson leaves the pocket early because different rushes take away his sight lines and he has to get outside to see downfield. Drew Brees does the same thing, although he and Gary Payton have created an offense that often has him drop to an area unlikely to be obscured by rushers. Brees is one of the few QB's you will see make a planned drop to behind a tackle as he sets up. Most QB's want to be in the pocket but Brees wants to be protected on the edge of it. The Saints run a lot of wedge style pockets to make that work.
There's simply not a QB the Jets will likely find in the draft who will project to be this pre draft in the near future , unless of course there in line to draft a once in a decade blue chip QB prospect. The only way to find out is you have them in the camp. We've seen multiple QB prospects over the last few years who projected to be this, but proved to be more "pro ready" than the draft pundits predicted.
It remains to be seen, and I get your frustration, but I don't see any comparison between Mahomes and Geno/Sanchez. Sanchez only played one year and he was BOUND to have to have a learning curve with lots of mistakes. Geno had flaws even a blind man could see, and I was really disappointed when he was drafted, and was proven right in my assessment. Mahomes has played three seasons. He has a strong pedigree in that his dad was a professional baseball player. Doesn't guarantee success, but it puts him miles ahead of those two, and BTW, also miles ahead of Trubisky.
Aaron Rodgers has fantastic footwork. He's like a ballerina out there sometimes, or maybe a ninja. He stands into his throws and plants his foot. When he isn't discipline in his footwork his accuracy tends to sail and when Rodgers struggled for that bit last year going into this year, I think it was due to him not having the best technique on his throws. Cam Newton to me, has sloppy everything. Questionable delivery that makes his passes sail high. Remember the SB? Dude couldn't complete a pass to save his life. Every pass was sailing. I look at Mahomes and I see really no movement in his feet, but the arm talent truly is exceptional. The way he plays now will get him into more trouble then good.
