models look intersesting for Sunday nite---looked like all rain initially but rite now colder solutions and more South each run,,,trends trends trends
Fjay, you anywhere near New Paltz? Heading up to Mohonk Mountain House tomorrow for a tasting and was wondering what the roads were like up in that area.
My brother goes to college there. I just asked him, and he said the main roads are a lot better today, but some side roads are in pretty bad shape.
FJAY and company ---Euro says 4-8 for Rockland and 8 plus north or 84 for Sunday nite--Nam saw this earlier but not as far South as Euro--THE models keep trending South,,,also long range sees something next week Wednesday Thursday but lets do Sunday first ! thoughts
ok, looks like i'm gonna have to allot a bit more extra time getting up there then. thanks a bunch for the update!
Roads were slick this morning but the suns out and everything is drying out nicely. i don't think you will much of a problem at all.
Gfs and euro have the same track but disagree on the temps. leaning towards euro a bit here. lets see the 18z gfs in a couple of hours.
NAM has been real good this year,,,,,,,,just sayin ps I will side with any model even the greek one if it says snowstorm lol EDIT---just saw maps ,,it looks as if the GFS is alone right now other models look colder , some weather geeks say snow others say ice storm , me I'm not sure out of my league with this one,,,,I will wait to hear what FJAY says and I will also wait to see what future model runs say. RGEM nailed the last storm but I think its still too far out to be in its wheelhouse but it says SNOW
i'm leaning snow c, we have a good snow pack down now and that should sink temps lower than modeled. thats my theory anyway where's jay?
Jay is probably on a beach somewhere---------also if it snows right now u are in a good spot but how far south do u think this will go ? trends trends trends !
4k NAM out a weee bit ago and this system moved South again and I think it went as far as parts of LI . If this thing keeps heading South say another 50 miles that would be a good thing ! Put your helmet on FJAYF and get in there for the Jayster we are in the game kiddo !
bernie rayno says we are on the outside looking in on monday. not so sure on that one, new england for sure is going to get bombed, where we fit in is a big guess right now. euro puts us in a good spot for 6+ gfs says 1-3 and some liquid. basically putting us where south jersey was thursday. i'm guessing all snow with colder temps than modeled and a little more southern track than modeled, now this won't reach nyc,jersey. they get rain . thursday really bears watching. major major potential. 95 corridor classic eastern seaboard all major cities monster. euro puts a 968mb right on the southern l.i. coast at noon on thursday, that would bury almost everyone in the tri state area. gfs total disagreement but this could still be something. every model run will be exciting for the next few days.
first few frames of the 00z gfs out, no change. south of the thruway on the outside looking in. i'll check the rest in the a.m.
FJAY Bernie posted a video and a few tweets but I believe those were MUCH EARLIER before the latest model runs-but he knows his shit ---if this thing swings 50 miles more it appears NYC will be in the game. I just looked at GGEM it says snow and cold and earlier RGEM said snow. The GFS trended a little colder but all the other models thus far are picking up on this . I dont think it is done trending south . Im gonna check shortly if I can stay up battling a freaking cold .I think we have something here ! ------> but I LWAYS DO lol PS the GFS is not seeing Thursdays Storm but the Euro is
well the weather geeks on other sites swear this storm is a miss,,,,thats why I am a rookie I dont see that but they know more than me . Lets see what models say tomorrow ps the midweek definitely needs to be watched FjayF maybe we get one more big one before its over ?
so 6z gfs came more south. nyc could be looking at 3" with mixing north and west are now 5-8. only the northern most jersey is i play for this one. timing, starting tomorrow afternoon clearing out around mdnight i think. TWC just issued a warning for the hudson valley. back in the game @CBG
You guys need to quit your jobs and form the Gang Green Weather Corp Sent from my KIW-L24 using Tapatalk
4k nam gives 3" south of 84. i think we are locking in. just hope my TWD midseason premier isn't interrupted tomorrow night
FJAYF all the guidance keeps moving south and colder,,,,,I just got schooled on "CAD" as I did not even know what that was COLD AIR DAMMING but I stray-----RGEM has hit homeruns the last few storms,,,other models trending colder and more South I say even LI gets in on this----- you were always in the game FJAY and I think you are looking at at least 6 plus-----I think I am looking at at least 3-6 if not more and NYC is looking at 2-4 if not more ! Plenty of time for this to keep trending farther South n West----what says you my friend ? Premier could be in trouble depending on timing
