i don't have that answer,c. thats graduate work. i'm still working on my associates. @Greenday4537 it is amazing how fast this escalated. but it takes a few model runs before the main stream sites buy in. they have a reputation to protect. i have to give bernie rayno his probs, he was all in on this yesterday, long before these big numbers started showing on the models. enjoy the warmth tomorrow, winter returns tomorrow night.
FJAY if you dont know then I dont know where to turn ? I mean I am doing this course online and printing up a certificate
Faze one late night models still say snow and no screw job ! Some have tempered expectations and say 6 - 10 others have said more .Im sticking with 8 - 12 with more in certain spots . The amount of liquid still varies but many models say less than an inch or about an inch , again I hope for more than that, the more liquid the more snow !If this storm was not moving soooooo fast it would be a good thing for snow lovers but I will take the totals in a heartbeat as this winter has blown .FJAYF and anyone else care to add thoughts ?
i think the high numbers will be short of 10" maybe around 8". north jersey,westchester,rockland nyc will be the winners. less south and far north of the area. my guess for me is around 5" tomorrow commute will be messy. give yourself extra time
temperature and Dewpoint determine the snow ratios------been doing some homework-------> still not sure exactly how to figure it out but working on it . Ps fellow on another site refers to the Ratios in Kuchera which I'm still trying to figure out and he states that the kuchera ratios for this storm are 17 to 1------Fjay do u know what Kuchera is ? Im googling as I type-->ps its going to snow kids!
So AccuWeather says up to 1 inch for my area. Weather Channel and Weather Underground says 3-5 inches. Go Accuweather! Sent from my SM-G930P using Tapatalk
A possible dead giveaway that this storm will overproduce is watching where the heaviest axis of snow begins..which is well out in PA. First look is that when models began to show this yesterday, the increase, was that the heavy snow accum started in Eastern PA which might set off alarm bells that if this storm got its act together too late...only L.I and NYC would get over 6. Not the case anymore. This looks to overproduce from whats predicted way west of the NYC metro area. Quick and fierce. Will not be a very long duration. Perhaps less than 12 hours. Still...producing over 10 inches is very likely. Times in the overnight where 1 to 2 inches an hour will be common. And i was up there for the Superbowl and it waits for me to leave. Bastards.
Good stuff jay, thanks. i wss thinking it was moving too fast to go as high as some of the earlier models.the 6z gfs seemed to back down some. i like your numbers better
thanks FJF....check out the latest NAM which should be trusted more than it was in the past. Huge numbers all the way back to Central PA...red flag that NNJ/NYC/LI....and southern NY will get hit and hard. Could be. You my friend are doing an amazing job
and you are totally correct about the speed. Speed is the number 1 thing to look for when checking out bust potential. Speedy it will be but it gets its act together too far west for that to help..or hurt...depending if you want snow.
Holy smokes. Madison at 12-18 range? Say it ain't so. I will use my snow blower for the first time. What are the things I should be careful about?
Always use you hand to clear a clog in the chute. its best if its running when you do this. tie down the lever that operates the thrower and then reach in and get the snow thats clogged in there.
For those NNJ(Bergen County) is this going to be the heavy wet stuff or do we get the light stuff that is easier to remove?
