I haven't seen Hunt play this year, so I'll be curious to see how he performs during the Senior Bowl. I agree that an elite RB can drastically improve an offense. It becomes a lot easier to find an open WR or TE when the opposing defense has to roll a safety into the box to help contain a top RB.
That's why you draft a tightend. Give whoever is the quarterback next season more effective targets to throw the rock to. A good fast tightend is a young quarterbacks best friend because the middle of the field tend to create easier throws.
But a RB can do the same thing, as well as run the ball, thus creating more guessing for the defense.
They can. But I don't trust Fournette at all. He's already showing signs of breaking down with the chronic ankle problems. Good runningbacks can be found later in the draft. I did some research in another thread a while back and only six runningbacks in the top 40 in rushing yards were selected in the first round.
I also think that Howard is a better player. I think we can get a good RB a bit later but Howard is the real deal.
I posted this at the end of November. I missed one guy in Jonathan Stewart. Look at the top twenty rushers. Zeke - #4 overall Jordan Howard - #150 DeMarco Murray - #71 Jay Ajayi - #149 Le'Veon Bell - #48 LeSean McCoy - #53 David Johnson Jr. - #86 LeGarrette Blount - UDFA Devonta Freeman - #83 Lamar Miller - #97 Mark Ingram Jr. - #28 Frank Gore - #65 Melvin Gordon - #15 Carlos Hyde - #57 Isaiah Crowell - UDFA Spencer Ware - #194 Todd Gurley - #10 Jeremy Hill - #55 Jonathan Stewart - #13 Matt Forte - #44 That puts the average draft position at 86.7 if we weigh the two undrafted free agents at 256. If we don't weigh them at all in this equation it puts the average draft position at 61.1. Only six of these twenty rushers were on playoff teams, so only half of the playoff teams had 'elite' rushers. It's just no longer a position you invest a lot in. You definitely never ever give them a second contract or sign them in free agency for anything more than the bare minimum. We haven't figured this out over the past decade unfortunately. Last year was also an up year for NFL rushers with 12 rushers over 1,000 yards and 7 over 1,200 yards as compared to 2015 that only saw 7 rushers eclipse the 1,000 yard mark and 2 rushers over 1,200 yards. 2015 could be a bit of an anamoly in having such drastically low rushing numbers but look at previous years before the huge evolution of the passing game. Breaking it down 2016 12 players over 1,000 yards 7 players over 1,200 yards 2015 7 players over 1,000 yards 2 players over 1,200 yards 2014 13 players over 1,000 yards 6 players over 1,200 yards 2006 23 players over 1,000 yards 11 players over 1,200 yards 2005 16 players over 1,000 yards 12 players over 1,200 yards 2004 18 players over 1,000 yards 9 players over 1,200 yards In a three year span a decade ago you had 58 1,000 yard seasons and 32 1,200 yard seasons. The past three years has seen that number drop to 32 1,000 yard seasons and only 15 1,200 yard seasons. The Falcons and Patriots have the dynamic offenses they have because they have multiple backs that do different things. It's incredibly difficult to find the all in one runningback these days so hedge your bet and get multiple players. They stay much fresher this way as well. Andy Reid and Rex Ryan often some of the best rushing attacks in the NFL using multiple players to run the ball. The point is don't waste high assets on this position!
Interesting analysis, but frankly I'm not sure I follow your logic in the first paragraph, but I think you're taking averages and then trying to draw conclusions from that, and I think that's a flawed approach. Aside from that, I also think you're inferring the wrong cause when you say that the "Falcons and Patriots have the dynamic offenses they have because they have multiple backs that do different things" - I think it's because they have elite QBs, especially in the case of Brady, and they can get away with a "running back by committee" because they don't depend on their RBs to carry the offense. But when you have a mediocre/poor QB, an elite RB can make all the difference. If the Jets had at least an above average QB, MAYBE they could get by with a RBBC, or an above average RB - as long as they also have other above average skill players, but the Jets don't have that either. Barring the signing of a FQB, the quickest "fix" for the "O" is an elite RB. I heard your concerns about Fournette, and he certainly needs to be vetted for his health, but if he's healthy, he's a beast. Otherwise, I do like Cook a lot, especially his pass catching ability. But if they don't take Watson, Fournette or Cook at #6, I could see trading down to get Ramczyk or whoever the highest graded LT is, and then grab Kareem Hunt in the 2nd.
I can see them picking one in the later rounds....IDK, with the glaring holes in the defensive backfield and pass rushing and OL have a feeling the first 4 picks will address these areas.
So don't look at the averages and just look at the draft positions and data as a whole. Everything about that list says you're wasting your time drafting a runningback in the top 10. There's only two players that have been drafted in the top 10 on that list and one of them can't do shit without a quality passing attack despite possibly being the most talented on the list. - Gurley didn't help his young quarterback ease into the NFL like one would think someone with his talent would be able to. - Jonathan Stewart has eclipsed 1,000 yards once in a 9-year career. - Mark Ingram has done it once in his six years in the NFL despite being in the most prolific NFL offense every year. - Melvin Gordon has averaged 3.5 and 3.9 yards per carry in his two seasons despite playing with a top 10 NFL quarterback both seasons. He was also AWFUL as a rookie and fumbled once every 30.7 carries in 2015 (approximately once every 5quarters for a starting NFL runningback). - Ryan Matthews is the unlisted first round runningback in the group and has had an injury plagued career only reaching 16 starts once in 7 seasons and two 1,000+ yard seasons. - Zeke is the exception to the rule behind the NFL's best offensive line in 20 years. Tough to tell where he'd be without it. It's safe to say he would've had trouble reaching 1K behind our rag tag group last year. Matthews, Gordon, Ingram and Stewart have all suffered season ending injuries. Ingram, Matthews and Stewart more than once. The injuries that nearly EVERY NFL runningback suffers at some point in their career is the reason you don't invest valuable assets in them. They take a beating. There's a reason Frank Gore is the first runningback in 33 years to rush for more than 1,000 yards at 33 years or older (since John Riggins). It's not that Fournette or Cook or whomever can't be a good player. It's that their replacement with a third or fourth round player is not a large drop off at all, and with suspected injury at the position we won't cripple the franchise by losing a top 10 pick to injury.
Found at ganggreennation.com http://www.ganggreennation.com/2017...es-mike-mayock-think-were-senior-bowl-winners Who did NFL Network’s Mike Mayock rate as his winners through the week? Day 1: Cooper Kuff, WR, Eastern Washington Forrest Lamp, OT, Western Kentucky Dan Feeney, OL, Indiana Tanoh Kpassagnon, DE, Villanova Montravius Adams, DT, Auburn Day 2: O.J. Howard, TE, Alabama Haason Reddick, ILB, Temple Obi Melifonwu, S, Connecticut Antonio Pipkin, QB, Tiffin Davis Webb, QB, Cal Damontae Kazee, CB, San Diego State Stars of the Week: Haason Reddick, ILB, Temple Damontae Kazee, CB, San Diego State Julie'n Davenport, OT, Bucknell Tanoh Kpassagnon, DE, Villanova Obi Melifonwu, S, Connecticut Nate Peterman, QB, Pittsburgh Obviously Mayock is but one Draft analyst, and these are only a few days of practice. Success here doesn’t necessarily guarantee a higher Draft stock or a successful NFL career. I just wanted to leave the top players from NFL Network’s top Draft analyst for your reading pleasure. You can click the links to view in greater detail.
Three guys that I think we should target (yes I would trade all of our picks to get all three): 1. O.J. Howard, TE, Alabama (18-24 overall) - The guy can do it all. Underutilized at Alabama until he exploded for 200 yards in the championship game. A man among boys in senior bowl practice 2. Obi Melifonwu, S, Connecticut (25-40 overall) - 6'4 220 lbs speedy tackling machine that can be the center fielder we need. Not sure if he projects as a free safety or strong safety but it looks like he can play either. My only concerns are level of competition and lack of interceptions. 3. Forrest Lamp, OT, Western Kentucky (25-40 overall) - Doesn't impress me as a tackle but if he moves insider he might be the best interior lineman aside from Feeney. Unlike Feeney I think Lamp can make the move to center and replace Nick Mangold.
Tha Thanks for the additional info. I'm more inclined to see your POV now. That said, I'm not sure any of them were rated as high as Fournette who has been called the next Adrian Petersen. But given this evidence, I can definitely see your point. Assuming his health is vetted though, I would still lean towards taking him over a TE or DB, but I doubt Macc thinks this way so you'll probably get your wish.
There's no question about it, if you were the Jets' GM, my days as a Jets fan would be over. First of all, the Jets absolutely cannot afford to trade up. That would be flat out stupid unless they're trading up to get Watson or Garrett. Second, this would be a colossally stupid draft because you're creating more holes by wasting picks trading up, not once, but twice. Third, with the exception of of the 1st round pick, you'd be ignoring both BPA and need. Howard is gonna be a great player in the NFL, but TEs are really not a value in the top 10. At least it would fill a need and he could be close to or the BPA at the Jets' pick. Melifonwu projects as a SS. We have no need for him. Lamp will probably be a very good OG in the NFL, but again, OG is not an absolute need. You're ignoring QB, OLB, FS, CB, RB, and ILB, all of which are absolute needs in this draft. It wouldn't matter if you hit on all 3 picks, this would be an awful draft simply because the Jets have so many needs and you totally ignored all of them except TE.
Gurley and him were probably rated similarly although Gurley was coming off an ACL injury. Adrian Peterson also came out as the NFL was in a transition into the passing league it is today. So runningback was still considered to be a premium position and AP was obviously one of the best prospects ever with only one minor ankle sprain his sophomore year and no sign of wear and tear on his lower body (other than the collarbone & shoulder injury). There was a bit of shock when the Chargers took Melvin Gordon as high as they did among NFL analysts. Fournette is one of the best prospects in a long time, probably right above Gurley and right below AP. But I don't trust his injury history for some reason and his extremely upright running style. His lower body is going to take an absolute beating when he runs like that in the pros.
http://www.seniorbowl.com/news-highlights-detail.php?news=621 2017 GAME Webb leads South to 16-15 win over North Sun, Jan 29, 2017 MOBILE, Ala. (Jan. 28) - In one of the closest games in Reese's Senior Bowl history, the South held off the North in the game's final minutes to win, 16-15, in front of 32,175 fans at Ladd-Peeble Stadium. It was the South's second straight victory in the series that dates back to 1950. Cal quarterback Davis Webb threw for 165 yards and connected with Texas A&M wide receiver Josh Reynolds on a 39-yard score in the second quarter for his only touchdown of the game. Webb completed 11-of-16 passes and received the Reese's Cup as the game's Most Outstanding Player. Reynolds was the leading receiver in the game with six receptions for 96 yards and the touchdown. The South controlled most of the game, but had to hold off a late North push when Pitt's Nate Peterman found East Carolina wide receiver Jay Jones with a six-yard touchdown pass with 1:51 remaining in the game. Peterman's pass on the two-point conversion was intercepted by Carroll Phillips in the end zone. Peterman finished 16-of-23 for 153 yards and the touchdown while Jones led the North with six receptions for 68 yards, despite nearly scoring two other touchdowns. One potential touchdown was called back by a facemask penalty and another his second foot was ruled out of bounds on a spectacular catch. Toledo's Kareem Hunt led all running backs with 118 yards, one of the top rushing performances in the past decade at the Reese's Senior Bowl. The South rode the leg of Arizona State kicker Zane Gonzalez, the Lou Groza Award winner as the nation's top kicker. He tied a Reese's Senior Bowl record with three field goals (22, 29 and 39), joining six other players in the game's history to accomplish that feat and the first to do it in 32 years. Jordan Willis of Kanas State had two sacks and two forced fumbles and was named the South's Most Outstanding Player. Lorenzo Jerome of Saint Francis had two interceptions for the North.
Eric Dickerson did alright with an upright running style, but Fournette isn't Dickerson. He doesn't try to evade contact. He seeks it, more like Earl Campbell in that regard. While Campbell was an amazing player, he didn't last that long due to all the hits he took.
Fournette evades contact but it isn't the end all for him. He has impressive lateral quickness and a subtle juke move that when combined with his well known tendency to take on tacklers head on, leaves defenders in the dust.
The Senior Bowl was actually a pretty good game. Conner Kupp, Ryan Switzer, Zay Jones. Chad Williams, and Trent Taylor were the most impressive WRs to me. Jones made a great catch in the back of the end zone that was ruled incomplete on the field, but it might have been overturned if replay was available. He also had a couple of TDs wiped out due to penalties. Kupp and Switzer appeared to be the most polished Wrs during the week. Williams will probably be a late round pick. He has some red flags since he was suspended for his team's opener.Taylor is really small at 5'7", but he was extremely hard to cover out of the slot. I was watching the offensive line most of the time. Dan Feeney was solid for the most part during the game. The LTs for the North (Davenport and Bisnowaty) struggled during the game. Bisnowaty was at his best when he could block the DE straight up on run plays. He missed a couple of reach blocks against Kpassagnon and was abused by speed rushers. Davenport was terrible for most of the game. He has great measurables, but I don't think he will be able to contribute during his rookie season. He is extremely raw and kept getting beat around the corner all game. He needs to go to a team that can afford to redshirt him for a year, so he can work on his technique and get stronger. Pocic played really well for the South and displayed his versatility by playing both guard and center.
First of all of Garret isn't there I am looking to trade down from #6 at least once. Second, if we trade down we have more ammo to also trade up with some of our extra picks. Third, we do not have a need at guard but drafting a prospect like Lamp who can play center means we can trade or cut Mangold saving us $9 mil per year that can be used to fill other holes. Fourth, Melifonwu who may run a sub 4.5 at the combine has the speed to play FS or even CB. He is projected at SS because he is 6'4" and hits like a truck. Get this through your head, you fill needs in free agency so you can draft the best players available who will fill your needs two or three years from now. Unless you have a crystal ball you have no idea what our needs will be in two or three years which is why it is impossible to fill them by reaching in the draft. You keep saying that we can "fill holes" without reaching buy if you pass up any of these three future pro bowlers for a QB, OLB, FS, RB, or ILB to fill a need you are reaching.
