Yes. Even if you do hit that lottery, you don't actually win. You actually have to have the right situation for that situation to work. I don't know about Stafford or Ryan, but if Andrew Luck had walked into the situation that Andy Dalton did... holy shit. I think that there have probably been scores of QBs who people consider to be failures or average, but if they had the right team makeup, they'd have been wildly successful. There are so many factors because there are so many moving pieces on an NFL team. The ones that can get enough of those pieces moving in the right direction at the right time just look genius, even when they may not deserve it.
Agreed, and as much as I hate the Pats and the Steelers I have to give them credit because they have been able to keep those pieces moving in the right direction for so long. And their owners have put enough leverage on the league to protect their QB's ("The League Stars").
So many things have to fall into place for this team to win gaaaaah we can barely get one thing to go right ...
The only thing worse than drafting a bust every few years is to have an 'almost' franchise QB like Cutler and a few others that 'almost' get you there year after year. Being handcuffed to an 'almost' for 10-12 years is worse than drafting a bust and moving on every 2-3 yrs.
Not sure you're old enough, but do you remember Bill Cowher and the Kordell Stewart Experiment? Bill Cowher walked into a team that had the stability that any coach could dream of, and aside from playoff appearances in a really weak conference, his claims to fame were getting smacked in SB XXX by the Cowboys and being gifted a trophy against the Seahawks in SB XL in the worst refereed game in NFL history. Sandwiched in between those two were some of the worst coaching decisions I have ever seen. Jets fans would have out a billboard on the moon to get Cowher fired in 2002. A stable organization can get away with having a loser head coach for a while, and sometimes even elevate that guy to looking like a winner. It's no coincidence that Cowher doesn't want to coach. He knows he's not good enough. Fun fact: the two coaches that were able to make a shit runner QB like Kordell Stewart look good: Chan Gailey (FitsLOL) and Mike Mularkey I'll be interested in seeing how Mariota turns out.
So is the better move to draft a mid-tier QB every year and hope you win the lottery or draft a first round guy and invest 5-10 years in him? The data suggests the former.
I remember Kordell, yes. Was he the first runner QB? I think so, but I was in grad school at the time and wasnt following the NFL very closely. But I do remember Chan was the OC then, and his pedigree was getting more than expected out of mediocre talent and example number 1 was Kordell. Fitz was number 2, pun intended. So you know Chan could coach an offense, but the Jets were just a bridge too far for the old dog. Another veteran coach who tried his hand at reviving this franchise. Glad Cowher knew the situation better.
Problem is, I don't remember Chan really coaching a great. Maybe I'm missing something, but his forte (pun intended) seemed to be disguising weakness and not playing to strengths. And no, Kordell wasn't the first runner QB. I mainly consider Randall Cunningham the first black running QB, but there were dozens of runners before him of varied (mostly white) race before him. And speaking of Randall Cunningham, if you could transport a rookie Randall into this era, he'd probably end up being a top 3 QB for 15 years. He was so fucking great.
This point had me the thinking, which franchise is more crap: The Jets who through fate or luck can't find their franchise QB or the Colts who by fate happened to tank in the year Luck comes out. The fan base can't believe how fortunate they are after losing Payton Manning to land the best QB prospect in years. The kid shows early on he is a great quarterback, destined for stardom. But the franchise is so fucking incompetent they don't develop a proper offensive line and Luck gets injured over and over. And even though the team plays in a weak division misses the playoffs repeatedly. That has to be torture for the Colts fan. And for any mocking of the Jets the Colts should get twice that. But no one ever criticizes the Colts. All we hear is Butt Fumble... Fake spike....
The Luck situation started and ended with incompetence, and continued with incompetence because their owner is a drug fiend. They didn't just start losing because Manning got hurt, they IR'd as many players as possible and traded some valuable ones to improve their losing chances. They destroyed their team to draft Andrew Luck. It's pretty hard to build a team around a franchise QB and a bunch of scrubs.
He could have been a trailblazer and walked away, but he was probably following the advice of his talent agency... And that agency likely represents a lot of clients, and they deal with a lot of teams who don't value trailblazing trend-stompers. The smart teams want stability, remember? They probably value stability in negotiations as well. Agents know that.
Imagine if Luck would have taken less to sign with a contender. Anyway thanks for the history lesson and the chat. It's been informative.
Back at you. And imagine that Parcells would have just given Archie that nod of approval that meant he wouldn't trade Peyton to the Saints.
He definitely looks promising. That team is a bit shaky though. I'd like to think they keep Dallas honest.
There is one more formula. The NY Giants, for Eli's entire tenure, had arguably the best receiving corps in football with a fantastic TE. They won two SBs with this formula. Eli is NOT elite but can put up elite QB ratings (minus the frequent int.) because he has always had sick recievers. Victor Cruz, Mario Manningham, OBJ, Hakim Nicks, Plaxico Burress, Kevin Boss and running backs that could catch out of the backfield like Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs. With a cast like that an average QB can look like a superstar and outscore the vaunted Patriots offense.
