unfortunately for NC theyre the nail of the east coast that gets repeatedly hammered Hopefully, ...... needs to stay far enough offshore to not bring a storm/wind scenario, and keep fetch in the water. Got a bigger travel board ready in case, and told people I work for that fri-sat I'm unavailable most likely will involve driving south below the storm to get the wrapping offshore winds. + once / if it hits NC, that's when the swell machine gets turned off. It'll be a very short lived event and alot of things will have to come together....... wish it was just chillin 500 miles offshore in the atlantic but if you remember FLOYD.... it was a BEAST, that was supposed to be a direct hit, then made a hard rt towards NC. that was the only time I evacuated. Did manage to get a a wave when we got back right before dark when they opened the bridges back up..... and used the pier as a shortcut to the lineup I think there's some St. Augustine mojo, that diverts storms We'll see....... we'll prob get fuct. My house is pretty much in a flood zone so i really hope I dont have to deal with that.
thanks FJF. Wish I could say Im having a GREEN HORNET MOMENT...and be tough about staying...that would be a lie. Truth is...Im a wimp...but would have to stick around for this. I would not stay at the beach but in Wilmington instead which is a town over from where we are now. Truthfully....Im pretty confident the Carolina Beach/Kure Beach/Wilmington/ Wrightsville Beach/ Topsail Beach area is in the mix here for a direct hit...and its going to be pretty severe. The problem with the area Im in is that it just sticks out...so once the storm gets west of us to the south....off the coast of SC or Georgia and then turns up the coast...you cant miss this area. Thats why its been plowed so many times in the past. After this area besides the outer banks..is just ocean. Only a left turn can hit the coast...ala Sandy. Enough of that...amazing how the GFS has been pretty damn good at this track. It folded over the weekend and trended east...but so did every other model. Except for a 48 hour brainfart, the GFS is the only model Im paying attention to. The EURO is slowly folding towards it and think we can expect pretty damn good model agreement by this time tomorrow. But where does it go after here? My guess is it just hugs the coast until LI. That is horrible news for the entire east coast. The beach erosion will be incredible. NYC METRO right now? 45-60 MPH with 4-8 inches of rain.
Expect SC and Georgia to issue the same in the next 6 hours. State of Emergency for Florida and North Carolina. https://weather.com/news/news/hurricane-matthew-us The latest models...GFS..shows a beeline for Palm Beach and less than 30 miles from the coast it does a right turn and begins heading up the coast towards SC. If this track would model out....SC from Charleston to NC Wrightsville Beach....wow.
and to add...Think the models are now overdoing the correction...and it goes back to middle ground. Still think Myrtle Beach to Topsail Island is the location.
after looking at the latest GFS...it would have a first that I think I have never seen. It would be the most destructive Hurricane of any hurricane...that never actually made landfall. Its amazing...it gets under 50 miles to land on at least 3 occasions and never makes landfall. It then races out to sea sparring the north. I doubt this is the play...but interesting to say the least.
Floyd was so big it came within 150 and we still had 'cane force winds...... it was supposed to track to St. Augustine then turned. Mass mandatory evac. I was living 5th house from the beach at the time
I remember Floyd well, I was living close to I-10. everyone tried to evacuate,that highway was a parking lot.people yelling and fighting. I was young single and would have been out about $4.50 if i Iost everything so I didn't go anywhere, hit every hole in the wall bar on jacksonvilles westside that night. woke up the next afternoon to a stiff breeze and blue skies lol
Latest models are really bad for down here...but looking much better up north. Matt wants to tear up the Florida coast...GA....SC and then make landfall near the NC/SC border...about 15 miles south of me. It then tears up the outer banks and heads due northeast...away from the coast of VA/DE and well away from NJ. There is model consensus for this now...but by no means if I was up north would I dismiss this. Sometimes, like winter storms, there is a correction and more times than not....its too much. It then pulls back to an original solution. Im beginning to doubt that because its been 2 straight runs showing out to sea after VA. We will see tonight if this continues.
How is Tampa looking? I know this thing is hitting the East Coast, but each model released is shifting more and more West.
models actually shifted east today. Tampa is a shower event..perhaps isolated heavy showers and breezy but pretty much escaping right now
JAY,,,,,,,,get out now ! looks real bad am I wrong ? F jay ? get back to me with timing if you can family near west palm,,,,everyone down south be safe .
