I don't think the Brexit is going to be even remotely interesting to most of us in 2 years time. It's not a big deal unless you are in the UK. For those people it is going to be a huge deal, however it's not clear at this point that most of them will be effected in a big way. The policy wonks and political pros and such are going to feel it more than anybody else because they're going to be swimming in a much smaller teacup.
May was the Home Secretary. That means she had a good look at what the benefits of EU membership were in her role overseeing the intelligence services. She also got regular briefings on the actual threat presented by loosened immigration laws and the like. She was better seated to assess the value of EU membership than just about anybody else in the UK of 2016. Her statement that "Brexit means Brexit" probably indicates that the UK is indeed leaving the EU. She's also better seated to figure out whether Scotland and Northern Ireland will follow than just about anybody else in the current leadership. I'm guessing that we're looking at a bunch of done deals here and it's just a question of when as opposed to whether at this point. May might angle to invoke Article 50 later than most people want to see it done but that would reflect her attempt to mitigate the worst consequences of Brexit (Scottish exit with North Sea Oil in question and Northern Ireland reunification with Ireland). I'm guessing again that she's just going to do the Iron Lady thing and invoke Article 50 this fall. If she waits a lot longer she runs the risk of it becoming the focus of a general election and then she will not have control of the process any more than Cameron did after he made his fatal error in proposing the referendum in the first place. Note that none of the primary Brexiteers, nor the man who oversaw the referendum despite opposing it, will be active in a leadership role in British politics in 2017. That's kind of the definition of failure in politics: your idea is birthed and you don't survive the birthing.
You seem to have a good handle on the situation but everything I read has a much longer timetable, as in a minimum of two years to employ an actual withdrawal.
Once Article 50 is invoked the two year timetable comes into effect. The UK isn't actually going to exit the EU when they invoke Article 50. They're going to start the process at that point and the negotiations will begin. Many of the Brexiteers wanted to negotiate the terms before Article 50 was invoked so there would be less unknowns involved in the proposition. So far EU opposition to any negotiations before Article 50 has been invoked has been nearly unanimous. This leaves the UK in the uncomfortable position of having to invoke a departure without knowing what it will mean in terms of market access and tariffs. Cameron had negotiated very favorable terms for the UK to remain, negotiating directly with Merkel in the process. Now whoever goes to the table is likely to find Merkel inhospitable to major concessions. Having gotten concessions in the last round and still kicking over the table afterwards is a very weak position to be bargaining from.
Stupid yanks. Always doing things bigger and better than us, even scorched earth. We have to pay a higher import tax on Jolly Ranchers. You've got a reality TV star for President. You win.
