The race is tomorrow ,,,,,any of you guys watching or wagering ? I m going with Nyquist Exaggerator Brodie's Cause Mor Spirit Going to box them every which way and superfector ,,,,good luck all
Mr Harris I was just coming back to post this and maybe its meant to be Throwing out the Baffert Horse Mor Spirit and going with Nyquist Exaggerator Brodie's Cause Gunrunner
Nyquist is a hell of a horse...doesn't let anyone pass him, like he personally want to win...pretty amazing to watch. Plus he has perfect pole position, don't see how any horse will beat him. I like Brodys Cause a lot too, but dont know if he can finish. I might go with the fastest horses in Exaggerator (103 Beyer) and Danzing Candy (100 Beyer). Danzing Candy has a terrible position and will really need to get out in front early. Honestly think that place and show are a crapshoot this year though. Should be fun to watch!
I'm hearing conflicting opinions on Nyquist's 13 post position. Some are saying its a bad spot because the inside horses are sprinters to the front and the 7 outside horses will push to the rail and Nyquist will be stuck in the middle and get pushed behind. Others are saying its a great spot because he can break quickly and sprint out to the early lead. Idk who to believe. Its one of the hardest Kentucky Derbys for betting in awhile I think
I can see why people would think its a bad spot, but I am in the other camp. This is a much slower field than last years race, so I dont think he will have a problem getting out of the gate and setting the pace. If its a muddy track, then I am a little more worried as there are better sloppy track horses in the race then Nyquist, but like I mentioned before, this horse does not like to be passed. If he gets to the front right away, he will be very very hard to beat.
Do you think though, even if he gets a good break, that he is the type of horse that can lead wire to wire at the Kentucky Derby? Most all the betters and racing junkies I know are conflicted on that one as well. I'd say opinions from my friends are 60/40 that he wont. A lot of people like the late closers. That's why I say its such a hard race to bet this year. Nyquist is a damn good horse though but its hard to tell how good and there are a string a quality horses just a shade behind
If he gets a great break out of the gate, I think he goes wire to wire. He wont let any horse pass him. But, out of the gate anything can happen when theres 20 horses in the field. Im not worried about him finishing down the stretch, I am more worried about track conditions. Doug Oneill is a hell of a trainer too, despite his past suspensions.
Weather does not appear to be a factor with only a 5-10% chance of rain between 3AM and 10 AM then back to zero until 8PM. Haven't decided the big picture yet but I like Trojan Nation and especially Creator getting in the mix as big finishers in the longer race here.
Not usually one to brag but hit the fuckin trifecta for 350$ and exacta for 120$, so a little bragging is in order lol
nice I had Nyquist and Exaggerator boxed for exacta but for trifecta and super, I used 14, 7, and 3 underneath lost trifecta in a photo, needed mohaymen third
Damn. Ended up with seven. I don't think Nyquist will hold off the closing speed and stamina of Exaggerator, who will start way back, if he can get free. Also like Mohaymen and Creator. Trojan Nation is a long shot who would jack up a Super. Also Brody's Cause and Mor Spirit could figure in. Good on you. I was a nose off with Mohaymen instead of Gunrunner placing. EDITED TO ADD: Hah! The top part of this post was from about 4AM, I must not have hit the post button. Lost a little over $100. If Mohaymen had a bigger nose I'd be about even. Played combos of all but Brody.
I did ok won $ome cash,,,,,thanks for the props guys,,,,I went chalky with this race next race I might mix and match some long shots depending who is running. Nyquist is some horse but exaggerator was coming from far back and moving pretty good at the finish,,,Preakness in a few weeks let's keep it going !
Would have preferred that, would have been a bigger return, especially on trifecta. Would have won more if gun runner placed 2nd and exxagerator took 3rd too
It's amazing how much betting respect the Baffert horses get. I think it was American Spirit in the 10th race that took a boatload of money and went off as a 2-1 favorite - then didn't even crack the top 5 the entire race.
