heh ftr edit: damn it, i should have kept reading. both of those were covered. what happened to him anyway?
It's unbelievable how registered Democrats put up with this superdelegate bullshit. It's only 1,271-1,024 as far as real delegates go, but the party can just go ahead and give Hillary an extra 450 to keep the status quo.
If it was 1,271-1,024 in Sander's favor you'd have a point. He needs to run the table to catch up at this point because the Dems give proportional delegates instead of winner-take-all. If he actually starts beating Hillary with any regularity those super delegates will start defecting to him. That's how Obama beat Hillary in 2008 despite having a significant delegate disadvantage early on. He started winning the big states in the middle by good margins and the super delegates left Hillary and came over to him. If Sanders starts doing that they'll leave Hillary and come to him also. However he's going to need to get to parity on his own. Then the super delegates will start coming his way.
There's a good chance he will win a lot more primaries. All the initial states (for the most part) were conservative states and conservatives sure as hell won't vote for Sanders. Here's what's left: Wyoming - Toss up New York - Sanders Connecticut - Sanders Delaware - Sanders Maryland - Sanders Rhode Island - Sanders Pennsylvania - Sanders Indiana - Clinton West Virginia - Clinton Kentucky - Clinton Oregon - Sanders California - Sanders Montana - Clinton New Jersey - Sanders New Mexico - Sanders North Dakota - Clinton South Dakota - Clinton Those are my estimates based on past voting. The more liberal states will lean towards Sanders and conservative to Clinton. The key is which states Sanders will probably get majorities in. New York (247), CT (55), MD (95), PA (189), OR (61), CA (475), NJ (126). The only one worth a fair amount of delegates for Clinton is Indiana and that won't be enough to stop the swing. What blue states has Hillary won (And by won I mean by more than a couple delegates)? Massachusetts and that's it. Bernie has won every other blue state except Illinois which was super close.
Remember that all of these states award proportionally. So NY has 247 delegates and if Sanders got 53% of the vote to Hillary's 47% he'd only catch up by 14 delegates. She's got a 247 delegate lead at this point. He'd need a 53-47 victory in 17+ states the size of NY at this point to catch her. There are only 17 states left in the primary season and only one of them is the size of NY or bigger (California.) He has to start blowing her out in state after state to get close. Then he has to hold California (which has a huge non-white population voting in the Democratic Primary.) Could it happen? Sure, but he's got an enormous deficit to make up and about 60% of the non-super delegates have already been awarded. It would be an extraordinary upset for Sanders to get close enough to Hillary now to make the super delegates begin to sweat their choice.
In the last few days, I have seen interviews with a few different democratic experts/strategist that pretty much stated there is no chance, no matter what the electorate does in the primaries are the super delegates going to switch to Sanders like they did for Obama. Sanders to the Dems is really no different than Trump/Cruz is to the Republicans. The only difference is that Democratic Party as a crooked system in place to make sure they get there candidate in place.
That doesnt make much sense. As much as they push Clinton, they also know, nobody really likes her and shes on trump level of popularity. Sanders has a chance ultimately because he simply isnt her. Sent from my SM-N920V using Tapatalk
Sanders is not going to win NY. Idk about your other predictions there, but suggesting he will win NY like that makes me call into question your other predictions. Hillary Clinton will win NY state and by a margin even bigger than she won Illinois.
look for the Republican party to switch theirs to mirror the Democratic party for next presidential election. The whole idea of these "superdelegates" is so you dont end up with an idiot like Donald Trump or a socialist like Bernie Sanders winning the primary. The Republicans will change theirs. Hell they changed it to what they have now in response to Ron Paul in 2012 and it backfired on them
The Democrats will ultimately go where their voters tell them to go. It's not like Sanders has the means to really change the direction of the party. He's to the left of the party on economic issues and to the right on things like guns, hunting and the middle class. If he were to really gain momentum at this point I can see the super delegates saying "screw it, he's electable and he's not going to drag us to the right or left much, he's just going to get votes in places we don't normally get votes because there are a lot of lower middle class whites who want their guns and want a decent wage to live on and won't vote for Hillary under any circumstances." I don't think he can get that process rolling at this point because he's far behind in delegates for 60% done but if he manages to get the necessary delegates on his own the super delegates will mostly switch also.
I think this depends on momentum going into the primary. Sanders only has a chance if he looks like he has a chance. There are a lot of Jewish voters in Brooklyn and Queens that will vote for him over Hillary but might be leaning Hillary right now as most electable. There are a ton of upstate Democrats that will vote for him. He can't win the African-American vote. Hillary will clobber him there. So far she's won every state where the African-American vote was better than 11% except for Michigan. Sanders has to reverse that trend right now. He can't wait. He's going to win California in all likelihood because the African-American vote is only 8% there and he has done very well in states where the African-American registration was that low. He has to do much better than he has so far in states like NY, Pennsylvania and NJ. He can't get the nomination without having big wins in California and NY. He's got to get about 65% of the vote in the big states to get enough delegates to make the supers switch. Even if he comes rolling down the stretch with momentum and a lot of narrow wins he's not going to get that switch if he's still 100 delegates down because he lost NY big to Hillary on the African-American vote.
Not happening. New York's lack of homogeneity alone should attract enough demographic swaths of long-established Clinton support (e.g urban minorities) into the Clinton column not to mention the party-loyal traditional base who were in lock step with the Debbie Wasserman-Schultz/DNC -scripted game plan from day one. And FTR, add Big Boner's coveted endorsement and you're looking at a slam dunk for Hillary that should stop Bernie's current "mo" dead in its tracks. Reading the tea leaves from day one, Debbie Wasserman-Schultz' scolding (then threatening with censure) Sanders and O'Malley for their protest of the DNC's flimsy debate schedule pretty much confirmed the party's Hillary Coronation game plan from the get go. From here, they can run out the clock. We're only going through the motions. Tix for the Jan., '17 coronation should be going on sale April 20th.
An open letter to Senator Sanders from GE CEO Jeffrey Immelt https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...99bc8c-fc23-11e5-80e4-c381214de1a3_story.html A must read I think for anyone still on the fence about Sanders
regardless if thats the case, that doesn't even tell the story. It's a reaction. Hillary didn't call in a favor from GE out of the blue- Bernie Sanders went after them himself! He picked this fight. Not only that it has nothing to do with the actual story and that is that Sanders makes some bold statements, often generalities, about corporations when in fact no 2 companies are the same and he seems to have little consideration for the aftermath of his proposals.
sanders is a clown and the hordes of bernie bros make me sick. it pains me to say this but clinton is the far superior candidate.
Hey spittle mouth, next time you step on your dick while corporate fishing, instead of Jeffrey Immelt, think John Podesta.
