I've spent lots of time recently working on evaluation analytics in preparation for the 2016 NFL draft. The first one I have unveiled is True FREAK Rating, a size and length composite score that uses height, weight, hand size, arm length, and wingspan to give a comprehensive view of how "FREAKy" a NFL prospect is. So far I only have verified information on seniors that partcipated in a post season game of some sort (NFLPA Bowl, East/West Shrine Game, and Senior Bowl). The tFREAK database is also a great sortable resource to compare players from across all three games. You can view that database here: http://goo.gl/WR4rvJ Let me know your thoughts! I plan on blending this with the SPARQ formula I have recreated, and then implementing my tape grades for a final total school. Should be really cool!
Good effort. What formula did you use to calculate tFREAK Score and ZScore? Also give more info on SPARQ please.
Very interesting, but it isn't it a little like the Combine where speed numbers (40 time, shuttle times) skew things. For instance, granted you only have info on seniors who participated in the post season all star games, but Blake Frohnapfel is the 14th ranked prospect using your metric? He's awful. He will be a UDFA. In addition, using your metric, Frohnapfel, Stave, Rudock, Sudfeld and Hogan are all better prospects than Carson Wentz. That's nuts. Accuracy, arm strength, fundamentals, explosiveness/quickness, speed and strength all need to be factored into your metric to give it some kind of balance.
Good work man! Thanks for sharing and its interesting. You probably aren't looking for suggestions but I think that if you put the position that these prospects play in their column somewhere, it would really help those that are looking for specific positions that their favorite team may be looking into upgrading in the off season. Team needs type thing gets people curious about prospects coming out of the draft, so a lot of people will just zone in on a bunch of different players in the same position of need for their favorite team. I'm sure a lot of people do the same thing on this board as well. Good job man.
Ha, gotta to start somewhere! If you aren't familiar with SPARQ, it's a formula Nike developed to measure athleticism among high school athletes. It was very successful, and many NFL teams use SPARQ or have created formulas very similar to it for evaluating draft prospects. It's a super secret formula, and I have done my best to recreate that formula. I will be implementing my SPARQ ratings with tFREAK after the combine, for a more complete numerical look at measurable's players possess. Right, that's why as the draft approaches I will be tying my tape evaluation grades into the tFREAK and SPARQ data I create to give a final, talent predictive measurement. tFREAK is a size and length composite score, and in no way should it be used as an all encompassing talent metric. It's also much more important for certain positions, like OT and EDGE, rather than QB. I promise you my final metric will not have Frohnapfel as QB1. But tFREAK does show his size and length are top notch. I am totally with you. I was pretty frustrated that the source I got this data from didn't have positions listed to start, so I've had to manually go throw and enter them. That should be added soon. Thanks!
I'd recommend adding a drop down so you can pass in a year so your metric can be back applied to at least the previous couple drafts. That can help people understand the usefulness of your metric.
OP, your effort n putting this data together is very commendable, but, based on that, Vernon Gholston would have made the list.
Put Derrick Henry at the top of that list after his combine performance, size and football ability. He is a definition of a freak! Wow!!
Maybe the original poster can reveal some late round talent that pans out in a big way. (Brady's 6th round selection and eventual Hall of Fame career, as an example). On another note..... I'm beginning to believe the Combine is stupid. It really has nothing to do with football. Other than a few skills like 40 time, it's worthless. Why not run shell drills for offensive and defensive passing, tackling drills for defensive players, etc.... Point is, make the combine football related, not a damn track meet. All its for is to balloon players value, AKA Vernon Gholston.
Actually, the 40 time is perhaps the most worthless of the measurables. Players don't run as fast in pads as they do in shorts, and some players play faster than their 40 time would indicate. The cone drills are perhaps the most important as they can show agility, lateral movement skills, how quick/slow their feet are, etc. The broad jump can show power in their legs/hips and explosiveness as I believe the vertical leap can as well. It also shows which players might be able to block or kick attempts. Receivers do have receiving drills, and the QBs have drills as well. I've never watched a lot of the Combine, but I'm assuming that they do have some positional drills that show players' movement skills and anticipation that relate to their positions. I hear what you're saying however. The problem with blocking or tackling drills is that the players would have to have padding and helmets. Where are they coming from? Who is gonna pay for them? What if someone gets hurt doing a tackling drill? Is the NFL liable?
I'm sure each team can provide a number of pads, etc..., after all the combine is in each teams interest. The NFL should be liable, since the NFL has a whopping interest. I'm sure more people would be hurt with contact drills, but any player can pull a ham, or twist an ankle performing combine drills as well. I'm reaching I guess for a true measurement of talent. For example, the best QB and WR's at the combine, playing against the best Secondary players in a shell scrimmage. It would also be a major hoot for fans, and coaches, but really more of a true measuring stick. Imagine the Jets watching Gholston go up against the best linemen..... We wouldn't have drafted his ass maybe, when the picture became clearer that he couldn't apply pressure, and was a work out wonder only.
The combine isn't about pads and blocking it's about seeing the athleticism, build and speed of players. Plus the interviews. All the real football stuff is only in the tape. Like Mayock says it's about checking boxes. To me the combine is a track event with a football focus.
I agree with everything you said, because I pretty much said that. Not being a smart ass either. I want the combine changed. In its current form, it's useless. More football related, less track meet
Here is the finished product for anyone that is interested: http://theyoungscout.wix.com/fantasyfootball#!sla-scores-2016/m2hr8
Hey guys, check out my over 60+ pages of results, analysis, and analytics on the NFL Draft, all for free! Link to PDF: Let me know your thoughts.
good stuff. yes, I read the whole thing. the QB results are meaningless but it's a good guide for the other positions. Seems consistent with other metrics analysis I've looked at, interesting to see how you used the data. Teams need to be looking at this stuff and then doing their tape scouting instead of watching espn mock drafts.
