Now that the season is (painfully) over, it's time to turn our eyes towards the draft and free agency. As always, QB is a major area of need. You're never going to sign a marquee quarterback in free agency because there aren't 32 guys good enough to start for NFL teams, let alone hit the open market. So, you've got to do it by yourself. This quarterback class is unfortunately weak. There were multiple guys that I was excited to watch this year that got hurt, regressed or just didn't show up. I know if this gets too long most people will hardly even skim through it (and I have a habit for writing too much) so I'll just give a brief overview of my rankings and perhaps start more extensive threads on each individual guy as the draft gets closer. 1). Jared Goff (Cal): - Goff is a very clean prospect. He has many traits that are going to translate directly to the pros, most of which are extremely rare to find in college prospects; things that usually need to be "developed". The most striking of these traits are his awareness and his anticipation. He has an uncanny feel for the rush, using subtle movements to glide around oncoming rushers while keeping his eyes downfield, helping mask extreme deficiencies in his offensive line and skill positions, buying extra time for them to get open. His anticipation is equally phenomenal: whereas most college QBs need to "see guys open", Goff "throws guys open", anticipating throwing windows long before they're even there or his receivers are out of their breaks. He also has the best pocket footwork I've seen on a college QB in a while, and uses that to go through progressions more frequently than most prospects. He has a knack for throwing the ball on his receivers' upfield shoulder and allowing them to run after the catch; the difference between 'accuracy' and 'precision'. These are where the hidden yards come from. The unfortunate side of Goff as a prospect is his physical limitation. While he is extremely accurate (maybe the most so in the class) in the 10-30 yard range and outside the numbers, he doesn't have a cannon for an arm, is very thin framed and won't wow you with his athleticism. Hopefully putting on some weight can improve his arm strength and reduce my injury concerns, because I can't see him ripping the ball through strong winds (which as we saw yesterday, is a problem) or withstanding beating from NFL linebackers with his current build. Comparison: Peyton Manning. I'll caution you here, this is a comparison in respect to physical traits and playstyle only. On those grounds, I think this comparison is spot on. Goff resembles Peyton with his physique and build, his choppy footwork and pocket movement/awareness and his anticipation on downfield throws. He also, however, resembles him with his limited arm strength and athleticism. Peyton Manning is an all time great because he's mastered the mental side of the game, if Goff can do so I think his ceiling is very high. Outlook for NYJ: I think Goff is going to wind up being a top 10 pick, or maybe even top 5, because of the demand at the position, which is unfortunate because I really like him. The only saving grace is that I have consternations about his ability to throw in NY/NE/BUF in December and January, so missing out may not be the worst thing in the world. I would trade up only if he starts to fall past the 12-13 range. 2). Carson Wentz (NDSU) - I think Goff and Wentz may flip flop as my #1 QB throughout this entire process as I hear more about them from draft media. Wentz stands at a tall 6' 5" and he plays exactly that tall. He's very poised, confident and decisive in the pocket, and he can really rip it when he stands back there. He has a cannon where his right arm should be, and rips throws 30+ yards downfield and outside the numbers with an easy flick of the wrist, which is more suitable for the type of weather he would be playing in here. He also has outstanding athleticism, running to both extend pass plays and pick up first downs with his legs. He's another guy that's very accurate in the 10-30 yard range but he also maintains his accuracy as the throws get further downfield. The primary negative on him is his competition; being an FCS quarterback he plays against FCS teams, though when he goes against occasional D1 teams he holds his own and they even won a couple FBS games with him at QB. His pocket awareness can be questionable at times, he sometimes stands flat footed and forgets about the rush, though he oddly almost always get the ball out before he gets blindsided, which could be either a sign of a special level of awareness or just small sample luck. He's coming off a broken wrist so he's gonna have to rehab that. Comparison: Derek Carr. Wentz seems very similar to Carr in his pocket poise and presence as well as the ease at which he throws the ball. Both guys can fire strikes with perfect spirals with just the flick of the wrist, and are dead accurate in the medium range with good touch. There are also times when Wentz gets the ball out of his hands quickly when his demeanor reminds me of Tom Brady (again, physically) Outlook for NYJ: This is the guy I really want, and whom I hope we get. I think that because of his FCS status, paired with the broken wrist, he'll go in the Teddy/Carr range, which would be perfect for us if we're looking to take a QB at 20 or get another late first/early second in a Wilkerson tag-and-trade. 3). Paxton Lynch (Memphis) - As you can see from my thread from earlier in the year on Paxton, I initially really liked him as a prospect. However, the more I watched him, the more disenchanted I became. He has the physical tools you want, a physical freak at 6' 8" and the athleticism of a far smaller quarterback, but he just misses way too many throws. He can run like crazy to extend plays or pick up chunks of yardage but when you force him to stand in the pocket he can be very erratic, which isn't what you expect from a guy of his stature. He's also wildly inconsistent, sometimes he'll look like Aaron Rodgers with a video game play where he runs a full sprint to the sideline and fires a 30 yard sideline strike across his body, but then he'll go and airmail an out route into the stands. His system is also a concern as Memphis runs a system similar to Geno/Petty's college ones, and I don't want to take on yet another one of those. Still, he has very interesting physical tools and if someone can mold him correctly he has the chance to be a good player. Comparison: Colin Kaepernick. This is a weird one because Paxton is a lot bigger but they're very similar in that they can torch you with their legs but are shoddy from the pocket and inconsistent throwing on the run. Kaepernick has a much stronger arm and Paxton probably has more anticipation and awareness. Outlook for NYJ: if Paxton is there at the end of the second round, when we make our second pick, I'd consider it. Otherwise I wouldn't be all that interested. I will say that he's a great fit for Chan's system and has the tools to be great if coached properly, but I don't think there's room for both Paxton and Petty on the same roster, and I prefer Petty. 4). Christian Hackenburg (Penn State) - First I'll say that I like Hackenburg than some others do. He got completely screwed by an awful new coaching staff, a horrendous offensive line and nothing to speak of at the skill positions. He has a strong arm and good athleticism and with the right coaching and supporting cast he can turn out to be a starter. But it's just so hard to shake the images of these last 2 seasons out of my head; he's been so bad. Yea, he's been running for his life with no one open most of the time, but his tape is just a complete mess. Comparison: Jay Cutler. The kid has all the arm talent in the world but for some reason everything just doesn't click for him. Like Cutler, everything is all there for the taking if you can find the right people to get it out of him. Outlook for NYJ: 3rd or 4th round? I would be alright with that. 5). Connor Cook (Michigan State) - I have no idea with Connor Cook, I'm completely befuddled. There are times when he looks like the best QB in this class, a top 10 pick. He makes special throws in big time moments that hardly anyone else could make. But then he misses throws that make you want to throw up. I don't know. Big, strong arm, decent athleticism, wildly erratic accuracy and decision making. Lots of people have hinted at character concerns. Comparison: Matthew Stafford, for the strong arm but inconsistent accuracy and decision making. Outlook for NYJ: See: Hackenburg, Christian. I'll just list the rest of my draftable guys, they're all day 3 diamond in the rough guys, no one special. 6). Cardale Jones (Ohio State) 7). Brandon Doughty (WKU) 8). Jacoby Brissett ( NC State) 9). Kevin Hogan (Stanford) 10). Cody Kessler (USC) Bottom line, I'd love to see us get Goff or Wentz, everyone else is either or a project or a shot in the dark.
I hope you are right with the bolded comment though I get the feeling that the secret will be out during Senior Bowl week. Also, I love the idea of "salvaging" a potential franchise QB out of a major lost like Mo.
Really? I'll definitely bookmark that, really want to see him play one last time before the senior bowl
Great thread. Browns GM pretty much said they were taking a QB. Other teams ahead of us could be 49ers, Eagles, and Rams. So most likely 2-3 QB's taken before us. If we thought the answer was available I'd be okay with taking one, I think it's crazy fans here are expecting Petty to be the guy, hoping is another. For example, Saints drafted Garrett Grayson in the 3rd and even there fans aren't assuming he's the guy when Brees and gone and didn't freak out when he was 3rd string even after the backup got hurt.. Like here. Regardless, hoping he grooms into the guy shouldn't stop searching elsewhere whether that be the draft or elsewhere via trade/FA. Much like the Tajh Boyd year the only guy in the entire draft I don't want is Cardale Jones so naturally he'll probably find a way on the team.
If 2 or 3 guys go before our pick then someone got massively overdrafted EJ Manuel style and I hope we get the QB position off our mind until the late stages of day 2. I think the Browns are a virtual certainty to go quarterback, everyone else is a toss up.
Goff would be an absolute perfect fit for Chan Gailey too.... I can't see him make it past Clevland.. Poor Goff
Please tell me that you aren't seriously comparing Garrett Grayson and Petty. The only things they have in common is that they were both the #3 QBs on their respective teams, both play QB and both are white. Grayson doesn't have a quarter of the talent, ability, accuracy, arm strength, or football IQ that Petty has.
Before I'm going to comment. Why are you even arguing? What makes you type out a bizarre statement based on what I just posted? Because you think Petty is better than Grayson (and I also do, so not sure where your coming from because I never said he wasn't) your going say it's ridiculous for FANS to differ on their respective rookie QB's. To most of us Petty is some future God we drafted in the 4th round so wouldn't that mean 3rd round pick Grayson should be considered the future king of Gods to Saints fans? No. Because they are reasonable fans. Think, type, erase, rethink, type, post.
I don't understand your response at all. I was just making the statement that I couldn't believe that you were comparing the two. If you think my statement is bizarre, then imo, you're the one with the problem and have never seen the two play. I've never seen anyone compare the two of them. IMO they aren't even close in ability. The rounds in which they were drafted have nothing to do with it. IMO the only reason Petty fell to the 4th round is because of the offense in which he played in college, and people have a bias against spread offenses. Conversely, Grayson only went in the 3rd round because he played in more of an NFL offense in college. I saw them both play several times in college and looked at their highlights film. I could be wrong, but I don't think there's any comparisons between the two. At best, I think Grayson will be no more than a career backup and probably not even a very good one. Hence, I think it would be nuts of the Saints fans to expect him to develop into their starting QB after Brees leaves, but I think it's not that unreasonable for Jets fans to think that Petty can develop into the Jets starting QB. I think that Petty has the talent and mental makeup to develop into a quality starter. That has nothing to do with the fact that he's here. I'd think the same if he was the 3rd string or backup of the Pats, Packers, Cardinals, or any other team where he got good coaching. At Baylor he mastered that offense and played at an extremely high level. If he had played in an NFL-type offense and put up the same numbers, he would have been a 1st round pick for certain, and quite possibly, a high one. The fact that Gailey runs a spread offense, makes the transition easier and makes it even more possible that Petty can develop. My point is that I can't see anyone expecting Grayson to develop into Brees' replacement, period, where some of us think that Petty has a chance and perhaps a good one to develop into a quality starter here. It has nothing to do with "think, type, erase, rethink, type, post" or whatever that's supposed to mean.
If we don't get Goff, I want Jake Rudock. I think he is the most underrated QB of this draft and could be a potential HUGE sleeper. Him in a later round would be awesome to pair with Petty
The QB that has the best chance for stardom in this class is Cardale Jones. He is raw, needs some coaching up yet, but his potential is absolutely ridiculous. 12-Gauge has the best arm in the draft, hands down. IMO I highly doubt we will be looking QB early, so this would be a perfect mid to late round pick for me. I know I'm a Ohio State fan but I really think this kid will be the real deal if he goes to the right team. You can't ignore how huge this kid was I'm the biggest spotlight the year prior to take Ohio State to the big dance and win it, over Mariotta. He didn't play super well this past season, it still wasn't the worst I had seen either. I felt a lot of it had to do with the scheme they were trying to implement after losing so much speed on the perimeter. If we want a QB, I think Jones would be a perfect fit for us. Reminds me a lot of Cam Newton go be honest. Potential based.
Christian Hackenburg is not a draftable prospect. Watch his two games against Northwestern and that will tell the story. The kid can't keep his eyes downfield and is always watching the pass rush.
I would only take Goff, Cook, Wentz or Sudfeld in this particular draft. That would depend on who is available in terms of linebackers / OT and the talent level left.
NDSU coach continues to be coy about whether or not he will play while the opposing coach is preparing as though he will. The game will be televised nationally by ESPN2 beginning at 11 a.m.; we'll know then.
Goff is going to be a stud. I was lucky enough to see him live during his sophomore year and you could just see that he had all the goods. I actually think Goff is the next Peyton Manning
It's going to be interesting to see how the league trends from here on out. It may start to affect how quarterbacks are drafted. Ironically pretty much since Aaron Rodgers was drafted and Carson Palmer several years prior, teams have thrust quarterbacks into starting duty whether they were ready or not. This seems like the perfect draft class to draft a guy and sit him. The problem is, no NFL franchise wants to use a first round draft pick on someone who will not produce in year one. Just to revisit first round quarterbacks a little bit. Nearly all of them played right away. Of course it takes the right guy, but can you sit the 'wrong guy' for longer and will it help? It certainly can't hurt. Very nice write-up by the way. Which of the quarterbacks this year do you guys think can start right away?
