33 yarder is nowhere near automatic getting more and more misses and blocked XPs (including two taken back to the house today, although one was nullified by penalty) the move all the way to 33 was pretty extreme and it's showing
...and going for 2 is far from automatic. I could be wrong, and only an opinion, but I would bet that the percentages would still favor the XP. Until something really changes that mind frame, I don't think Head Coaches are going to gamble with their jobs - because that sure as hell could bite them in the ass.
I didn't say going for 2 is automatic obviously not but teams convert often enough on the 2 pointer that it's now a better play (results in more points in the long run) than the XP
the whole reason teams always kicked the XP was because it was considered automatic, and 2 pointers aren't quite at 50% but now it's NOT automatic I don't see how telling me that 2 point conversions aren't automatic is relevant Bob Costas also noticed what's happening he did a bit at halftime about this
If you have an automatic kicker from short range it's the same thing but many teams don't have that and they probably should be going for 2 more often. I'm still really annoyed at the 4th and 1 at midfield in the 3rd quarter with the Jets down 20-10 where Bowles chose to punt. The most likely score after that event was 27-10 Giants. can't do that consistently without giving away wins at some point.
I don't think any kicker is automatic from 33 yards some are very good from that distance, but still not automatic kicking an XP from the 2 is basically automatic kickers almost never miss it. The rare failed XP tended to arise from a bad snap or hold
I actually expected more 2 pt attempts than there have been this year. I have a feeling what it might do is just cause teams to go after the automatic kickers harder in free agency, lowest percentages on extra points are in the mid 80% but that is only on 3 or 4 missed kicks compared to 1 or 0 missed for the better half of the league. Every point counts but 2-4 points lost over the whole season will probably lead to a few $100K more a year thrown at them with the 2 pointers being specifically situational.
I said they were not automatic; I wasn't implying you did, so you can relax now. I phrased it incorrectly. I just meant that the kickers in the NFL are all pretty damned good and that the odd most likely still favor the extra point.
Jets have had a lot of failure offensively on 4th and 1 and a lot of success defensively. Me, I throw a 10 yard pass on 4th and 1. how about Rex and his PATs this year? Have they missed 4 kicks or something like that?
i think as data continues to be gathered as folks see that 2 pt tries are at a certain percentage, what is it 48 or 49 percent? and xps are no longer at 98% that you will see some more folks start going for two.
that would be the worst idea because you would be lining up at the 15 yard line while faking to try to get in the end zone. If you just lined up for 2, you'd be lining up at the 2 yard line to get in the end zone.
If 2 pt tries are under 50% and most teams have only missed zero or 1 extra point for the year I doubt they will be going for the 2 except situationally. Based on missing one out of two 2 pt tries they would already be at a negative over missed extra points. Only Buffalo and Jax have missed 4 extra kicks, they are 1 of 4 and 0 of 2 respectively on 2 point tries, statistically they are not better off going for the 2 pt. conversion. Steelers are 7 of 10, probably the only team that has been going for it more than situationally and it has been ok for them but not by much.
I think you missed the sarcasm in his post. But yeah the changed extra point also takes away any possibility of a fake unless you're a loony wackjob. Of course if it was possible to do the reverse (line up for two and drop kick the PAT) Bill B would have been all over that by now. I think it depends on the circumstance, and even the 90-95% chance of a PAT is still twice as much as the two point BUT if you have a bad kicker and/or are in outdoor elements that veers the PAT chance much closer to that of a two point conversion then I could see two point chances going up for those teams. If you're the Colts with Vinatieri in a done though, then you're not bothering with the two
Got a question about the rules as they pertain to the 2 point conversion. Let's say you choose to go for the 2 pointer but during the play you make an infraction--offsides, holding, delay of game, unsportsmanlike, whatever and you get pushed back 5 or 10 or 15 yards from the 2. Can you then opt to just go and kick the extra point from the 15? _
never seen it happen small sample size. http://www.sportingcharts.com/articles/nfl/how-often-does-a-two-point-conversion-work.aspx Before the rule change, XPs were about 98.5%. Now, significantly less. Over 40 XPs have failed this season, I believe. For comparison, last season only eight extra points failed.
I don't know of any situation in the game where a team is required to execute any certain type of play. I would consider this to be an element of "repeating the down" even if, in this case, it is a "try" rather than a "down". Part of the try is deciding what type of try to make; that decision should not be affected by a penalty as the initial try is expunged. I will add, as I stated earlier in the season, that I decry the virtual total removal of the fake kick by the differing ball placement for a kick or two point attempt. Under the old system I could have seen the possibility of a ballsy coach calling for a fake kick to win the game rather than the one-pointer to force the overtime.
True but still have 16 teams with one or less missed extra points. Pretty close to a sure thing for them so I don't see them going for 2 unless the score late in the game pushes them. The teams who have missed 2, 3 and 4 extra points I did just rerun the numbers for and the bottom 2 teams in the league on extra points would come out ahead if they hit on 44.79% of two point tries but those teams missed 4 and 6 extra points. 3 missed extra points are borderline, could go either way dependent upon how many tries. 2 missed extra points and they are better off staying with the kick for 1. Overall about 6-7 teams may want to lean toward the two but those teams are mostly the crap teams anyway so their two point conversion % would probably be lower than the 44.79%
