That's actually a fair way to look at things I don't get the negativity that some fans have regarding Geno's future prospects and they don't understand why we think he could possibly be any good Obviously I don't think Fitz must remain as starter but I get that being a rational stance on things Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Our RB ran for 166 yards on excellent YPC, and our D forced the other team's QB into a 19-44 performance and gave up almost nothing on the ground. Those are the reasons we won, for the record. About 25% of Fitz's yards (bomb to Marshall) came on what I consider to be a bad throw. QBR does not understand that, nor could it. QBR does not understand an on-target incompletion v. an off-target incompletion. Quite simply, QBR cannot provide context and is generally a bad one-game stat. Whether it is a good season-stat (compared to others) is still up for debate. I will credit Fitz for the runs but do you consider that to be a sustainable part of his skillset? Put another way, do you value Fitz's runs the same way you would value runs by Wilson and Rodgers (guys who are known to regularly do that)? I view those plays as extreme outliers for Fitz. It's not a knock on him per se, but if you are loving Sunday's performance because of his runs, you are likely to be disappointed when he does not duplicate that in the coming weeks. He is also likely to turn the ball over if he continues to scramble like that. He didn't suddenly become a great scrambler overnight. His career says he is not.
You may not have seen these cold hard stats: After 4 weeks, Good Fitz is: Tied for 8th in TD's thrown with 7 1st in sacks per game (a very low 2 on 145 attempts) This is due to both the excellent line play and his quick read and release. 0 fumbles lost Tied for 7th in pass plays over 40 yards with 3 of them (??!!) 3-1. Bad Fitz is: 3rd in INT's with 6 26th in YPG with 231 Tied for 20th in pass plays over 20 yards Branden Marshall is 6th in receiving yards and 7th in TD's and YPG (400 and 3) Think he is complaining about Fitz? Mixed bag overall I admit. But TD's, Sacks, INT's and Fumbles are the biggies. I can give a crap about yards per game if the team is winning. And of those, after the first quarter of the season 3 out of 4 (TD's, Sacks, Fumbles) Fitz ranks BETTER than average and I doubt Geno could have done better. Like I said before, I'll take it!
QBR is just like PFF's evaluation. It's an "eyes-on-the play" evaluation. The panel of people who do the evaluating for ESPN watch each play and assign it a grade and then the QBR reflects the cumulative score for the game. Obviously PFF and ESPN use different numerical grades in their systems, which is why ESPN's goes from 0 to 100 and PFF's varies from - to + territory. The analysts at ESPN looked at each play that Fitzpatrick made on Sunday and they came up with a 91.4 cumulative QBR rating for the game. That means they saw Fitzpatrick as overwhelmingly positive on the contributions he made to the Jets offense on Sunday. The analysts at PFF looked at each play that Fitzpatrick made on Sunday and they came up with a -6.3 rating for the game. That means they saw Fitzpatrick as overwhelmingly negative on the contributions he made to the Jets offense on Sunday. Given that the Jets had 3 scoring drives for TD's, on which Fitzpatrick was 8 for 11 for 116 yards and scrambled twice on 3rd down for 33 yards and 2 1st downs I'm going to lean with the ESPN folks and say the PFF folks can't see the forest for the trees. Really.
Fitzpatrick is a better scrambler than you give him credit for. What we saw sunday in that regard isn't "an extreme outlier".. he busted off runs quite a bit in his previous spots in the NFL and hell, he was a running QB at Harvard. He has sneaky athleticism in that he doesn't look like a runner but he can take off and is actually quite capable as a scrambler. His biggest asset more than his athletic ability as a runner is his field vision, he does a good job finding green. His 4.6 career yards per carry is exactly the same as Geno Smith's with a lot more carries to his name (which suggests legitimacy to me- less carries = more the chance for an inflated ypc average). And since his yards per carry is at 3.3 this year, lowest of his career so far, you could actually make a better point saying the 1st three games here where he DIDN'T run it is the "extreme outlier" of his 11 year career.
Great post, and I would merely add here on the bolded part that neither is there a good reason to think it likely he would do that. Too many of his supporters think the CS was happy with the idea he would be starting before the IK incident. Nonsense. The CS was not expecting that great jump. They just had Fitzpatrick coming off a broken leg as the only alternative. That meant nothing in terms of predicting any such great leap.
QBR is by far the worst evaluation statistic for QB play, PFF rating is the best. Traditional passer rating is somewhere in between. That's not me cherry picking the stat that supports me, I've always been strongly against the bullshit ESPN stat. How can you watch that game and say that he was the 2nd best QB in the league this week? It's a joke. It evaluates team play more than the individual.
I have no idea what the organization is thinking, I am projecting my opinions on what I think they are thinking. And this staff has no stake in Geno and in fact the prior shit staff had little tied up in him either. And please stop with the "I'm not a Geno fan". _
If the CS had been seeing good things from Geno before the IK incident he wouldn't have lost his job in the aftermath. I'm guessing the coaching staff didn't know if he was a better option than Fitzpatrick at that point and with Chan Gailey in the equation they were probably going back and forth on who would be a better QB for this veteran win-now team. Then the IK incident happened and the choice got made for them and so far the results in the season haven't suggested that reversing course would be a good idea.
PFF would have loved Jeff George. QBR would have hated him. That's the difference. PFF doesn't care who won or lost the game. QBR is all about that. Fitzpatrick was really good on the three TD drives. He got the job done. Giving him a big negative rating was just a stupid move by PFF because it points out that their system doesn't really track what's important in wins and losses and really that's the whole ball game.
And that's why PFF is a lot better. It acknowledges that despite the fact that the Jets won, Fitz was below average. ESPN assumes that because the Jets won by 13, Fitz was lights out. PFF factors in the 5 balls that were forced into heavy traffic that could have been turnovers, which are important. I hate ESPN for creating that stupid stat and I hate that people propagate it like it's viable. They won't release the formula for how it's calculated, but they'll tell you a couple factors that go in. Go look at them. "Clutch factor", a device that weights 4th quarter completions more than 1st quarter ones. Yeah, OK.
Your points would be valid if you weren't just throwing out names. Santonio Holmes did nothing as a Jet after he got his contract. Winslow wasn't the same guy he was early in his career. Cumberland is the same guy now everyone wants off the team Kerley is a nice little receiver but he is not on Brandon Marshall's level Harvin never seemed to have much chemistry with smith; which is understandable since he wasn't on the team until later in the year
No PFF doesn't say Fitzpatrick was below average. They said he stank. The worst QB in the NFL last week. You know what that tells me about PFF? They stank last week in doing their evaluations. They were the worst rating service on the NFL last week.
QBs don't get teams blown out, defenses get teams blown out. QBs don't score points for the other team. If we don't give up a lot of points then our QB doesn't have to score a lot either and we can just let Ivory keep running the ball which seems to be the plan anyway.
This isn't a debate between Jet fans. It's a debate between Jet fans versus Geno fans. Makes me miss the Tebots. Not really. _
He completed 55% of his passes. He threw for 218 yards and 58 of those were on 1 underthrown pass that was as far as he can physically throw a football. He threw 5 balls into traffic that could have been turnovers. He missed open receivers multiple times. He had several chances to put the Dolphins away with 1 drive but repeatedly kept them in it. Sounds like a recipe for a putrid grade. What did he do that makes you think he wasn't that bad? Yeah, they won by 13. Chris Ivory ran wild and the defense was smothering. He was good against the Browns, he was slightly below average against the Colts, but he's been dreadful the last 2 weeks. If he's gonna play like this then we're screwed when we stop playing against Division II teams. Do we have a better QB on the roster? Probably not, which is the worst part.
Good post. I understand the Fitzpatrick criticisms definitely. I also can look at criticizing him and suggesting Smith and not blatantly think the person is an "idiot Smith fan" or whatever. There is merit to suggesting you'd like to see a QB that can make ALL throws and not limit yourself purposely... but the only 2 sacks thing - there's just NO way in hell were sitting here after 4 games and 145 Geno Smith attempts with only 2 sacks. Just no way. Fitzpatrick deserves credit for getting the ball out quickly and/or having pocket presence.
Petty did a lot more prepping for the next level compared to Geno Smith - that showed in the preseason where Petty looked far more comfortable running a pro offense compared to Geno as a rookie. Geno as a college NFL prospect, no doubt was the better prospect in the eyes of the scouts. Durability, a stronger arm and mobility put Geno above Petty more than likely. As well as the whole spread QB dilemma.
