Will this affect transatlantic flights? How does that work with hurricanes and tropical storms? Delays or can you just fly around it?
Sciam.com has a good piece on why the Euro model tends to be better than ours. They put a lot more money and hardware into the process and they model at a higher level of detail. They're saying it's going to move out over the Atlantic instead of making landfall in NC. http://www.scientificamerican.com/a...better-than-americans-at-forecasting-storms1/
EURO has dominated...and the crazy thing is that after the American model was upgraded and still did poorly...they dumped a ton more money into the EURO...it was not that great last winter though. But its so damn correct here...not even close to landfall. Here in Wilmington (cant wait for this work to be over and get back to Jersey), we are still forecasted to get over 7" of rain..cats and dogs out there. South Carolina may just float away when its all over...they will break many many MANY records.
Oh..hope you guys read that correctly..when I said I thought that it would do the same I meant what the model NWS prediction was..which was much closer to the coast. I did not think it would go that far out to sea. Didnt want anyone to think I think I was right...wrong wrong.
found the Joaquin cone loop at NOAA: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2015/graphics/al11/loop_5W.shtml
Apparently the difference between the Euro and US models is really dramatic. Somewhere in here somebody will probably suggest that we just outsource it to the Europeans and stop competing. Then we can outsource the space program and the social security check mailing and all that other stuff too and get back to good old small government. Nothing like a few epidemics to spice things up!
way ahead of you buddy, US is paying the Russians to use their rockets to bring supplies up to the space station. The US no longer operates any space shuttles
Not to derail the best thread on TGG but China's going to be the first country to plant a flag on Mars. They want it bad and that's what you need in order to get it done.
Yes, and I'll bet TypeO is going to be a very busy man over the next few weeks. The streets of North Myrtle Beach today:
We caught a break with Joaquin not making landfall somewhere on the coast. Now, we'll be able to direct relief efforts mainly to the Carolinas without dealing with a national disaster all up and down the east coast. We won't be that lucky all the time but we were this time.
Columbia, SC is pretty much either destroyed or.... Under water. Its really like Katrina, only on a larger scale.
As we have discussed with the current El Nino setup....chances remain good for a below average snowfall and above average temps for us in the Mid-Atlantic. California to get its much needed rain. Didnt we call for this already damn it? Well...that probably means we will get a ton of snow. Lets see how it looks as we get closer...so far..snow lovers (cbg) may be disappointed. Now the one thing about these types of setups is that USUALLY they bring less snow but several bombs and nothing much else. Must keep an eye out for the bombs but if this trend continues...low chances for a white Christmas. Very low. US Winter Forecast: Northeast to Dodge Winter's Brutal Cold; Rain, Snow to Dent California Drought By Jillian MacMath, AccuWeather.com Staff Writer October 7, 2015; 10:53 AM ET More Sharing ServicesShare|Share on facebookShare on twitterShare on linkedinBrutal Cold Won't Return to Northeast, Mid-Atlantic; Weak Lake-Effect Season in Store for Great Lakes| Severe Weather to Grip Southeast, Gulf Coast States | Springlike Highs to Visit Northern Plains on Occasion; Below-Normal Temperatures to Grip Southern Plains | Below-Normal Snowfall to Exacerbate Drought Woes in Northwest, Northern Rockies | Wet, Snowy Conditions to Frequent the Southwest | El Niño to Send Rain, Snow to Parched California Brutal Cold Won't Return to Northeast, Mid-Atlantic; Weak Lake-Effect Season in Store for Great Lakes After the winter of 2014-2015 brought brutal cold to the northeastern United States, this season is set to be milder overall, but particularly during the early part of the season. "We just don't know exactly yet whether or not we're going to see the pattern turn cold and snowy," AccuWeather Expert Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok said. "...There is an opportunity that [the weather] could change on us as we get into February and early March." Regardless, the Northeast and mid-Atlantic can expect fewer days of subzero temperatures than last year. February of 2015 went down in the record books as the second-coldest February on record for both the region and for eight states individually, including Pennsylvania, New York and all six New England states. Farther west, in the Great Lakes region, a lack of arctic air for much of the early and midwinter will lead to a weak lake-effect season, causing snowfall and precipitation totals to fall below normal. Upstate New York and northern New England are not in the clear, however, as rain events along the coast early in the season can translate to snow in the higher elevations. Severe Weather to Grip Southeast, Gulf Coast States As one of the strongest El Niños in the last 50 to 60 years continues to develop, it's likely that heavy rainfall and severe weather will take aim at the Southeast and Gulf Coast. El Niño patterns often result in severe weather outbreaks for this region as bigger, stronger systems are able to take a southern storm track. Florida, in particular, may have a higher risk for tornadoes this season. Southern Georgia and South Carolina are also at a higher risk for severe weather events. Overall, heavy rain will be widespread for the South. As the season progresses, additional rain on an already saturated ground will increase the chances for flooding. "As far as the biggest impacts go, I would look at Shreveport and New Orleans, Louisiana, and Mobile, Alabama. I think those areas are going to get hit with a lot of rain," Pastelok said. Springlike Highs to Visit Northern Plains on Occasion; Below-Normal Temperatures to Grip Southern Plains Wintry weather will become active early on in the northern Plains, with the potential for a few snowstorms as early as November and December. As is typical for this region, however, the weather pattern will be a roller coaster, causing wintry weather to back off in the middle of the season and return again just before spring.
lolololo....good one Brad. Every so often the American model outdoes the EURO and I always point out that those in charge of the GFS need to really analyze those storms to see why that happened. There must be a common setup that layman like us will never understand...but the experts should at least say why the GFS got one right. Had this one guy in a forum I used to argue with all the time because he would take the EURO 5 days out and use that for his prediction. Then the GFS would change and he would state why HE was going to be right. I would ask him..."you mean the EURO will be right right? Not you". He would then go on to explain why his prediction is a bit different than the EURO. EURO is saying 12 to 16 inches of snow...he is saying 10 to 15. Cant make this stuff up Saying you are wrong about what you thought is so totally cool in my book. Weather will, in 100 years...no matter what tools they develop..will never be 100 percent. EURO was wrong 50 percent last year with potential snows for us...and thats pretty good 6 days out.
Jay,,,I will be disappointed if this article is accurate ,,,that said this stuff is wrong at times and i will believe it when I see it,,,,come on freeze mizer CBG wants a white Xmas,,,,,lol,,,btw keep em coming
Tell him C, we don't want to hear about mild winters. Let it snow let it snow. I need 6 good snow events to build my daughters race bike. Make it happen jay
Just means a longer fishing season for me! Look out Tautog, look out Cod, Mild winter means there will be fishin goin on!!
