I will as long as you stick with your notion that he's better than Le'veon Bell, Jamaal Charles, AP, Forte, Lacy, and Lynch. You really are ignoring the fact that pass catching is as much a part of being a great runningback in today's NFL as everything else. You're mostly a good poster but every once in a whole you come out with some outrageous statements. Ivory and Jet fans should have no shame in saying he's not on any of those guys level. I'm not sure why you think he is. It doesn't demean the fact that he's a good runner or could potentially stand to have a couple 1,200 yard years. But c'mon man. We're talking about guys who routinely have 1,400 yards from scrimmage and 12+ TD's versus a guy whose top season is 833 yards on the ground.
he's fragile because of the way he runs. Every RB, I don't care who they are, would be fragile if they constantly ran head first into people, never really put much effort into running around people as opposed to running through people. I think Byz said it best once- Ivory's lead blocker is his forehead. that's why people can't say things like: "well if he got as many carries as Martin, Jones, etc. he'd put up just as good numbers." or, "if we featured him full time he'd be a top back in this league..." because the way he runs he'd never make it through a season with that many carries. You give him 300 carries and his career might be over.
This is my concern, too. If he continues on the 20 attempts per game, he'll hit the wall by game 15, assuming no injuries. Now, I really like Ivory and, as previously mentioned, he had a burst this Sunday that I haven't seen from him before (maybe because he wasn't asked to do much last year). At some point, the FO will have to lighten the attempts, and will have to spell him with Ridley (similar style) and Powell. That being said, this past NFL week, he looked better than AP, which is something I never thought I'd write.
I've been sticking with this for years, I'm not going anywhere, don't worry. Now with Chan I have faith that Ivory is going to get his ~300 carries this year. He said he's our workhorse so hopefully this year they make use of him. If he does that the rest is going to work itself out. He will be our offensive MVP, he will be a Pro Bowler, he will be considered elite. Until then you have people looking at rushing yards and ranking those guys by whatever amount of yards they have. I guess Ridley is better than Ivory since he's had 1300 yards with the Pats a couple years back. We just have a different definition of what a top back or a top rusher is. I don't value receiving skills or blocking skills, you're right. I never did with Peterson. He has always been my #1 back. You have 3rd down backs for that. Why would you want your franchise guy to touch the ball 40 times per game and take so many hits, even in pass protection? And I never looked at rushing yards either, part of why I never was a big fan of Chris Johnson or Jamaal Charles. An elite rusher to me is somebody who if I'm giving him little room to run (below average O-Line), a stacked box on defense (9 guys), and an average QB, how many yards is he going to give me? Peterson, Ivory and Lynch are my top choices. Lynch and Peterson are not getting any younger, that's why I'd pick Ivory.
the best part is that he's here on a fantastic value, 2 million a year is a steal for a man with his skills. he could make twice that in the open market if he keeps his usual production up; a lot of teams could use a great power runner like him on their side. I wonder if we pay him to stick around a couple more years? 6-8 million over two years including game day bonuses and rushing yard incentives could be feasible. 3-4 million a year appears to be the going rate for veteran running backs that are worth a damn.
TJ was a good all around back that was playing behind the best run blocking offensive line in the league for most of his time with the Jets. Somebody already said it, but yeah, he took what the Oline gave him and nothing more. He had one move - the Hop Cut - and didn't really use it all that well. And when there wasn't a huge hole in front of him? He used his patented method of securing the ball in both hands, spinning 180 degrees and falling backwards into the defense. The only reason his career lasted so long is because he refused to fight for extra yardage so he never got injured. If Ivory had the Oline TJ had on Sunday, he probably would have run for 200 yards. Chris Ivory can be a top 5 back when healthy, the main problem is the health part.
It'll come down to how effective he's going to be this year. If he breaks out officially, making the Pro Bowl and whatnot, he's going to break the bank soon, probably in the offseason or a year later, he doesn't have too many opportunities to get that big payday. He needs a Pro Bowl year this year and/or next year for that to happen.
Definitely something for the FO to consider going forward, and for the CS to think about this season. For me, if Ivory gets over 1,000 yards on less than 200-2015 carries during the regular season, then he's absolutely worth resigning at that rate because he'll have tons of tread on the tires. Spoiler: Warning:Unnecessary Math If Ivory stays at 4.6 ypc, he'll need less than 200 carries to hit the 1,000 yard mark. On the current track, Ivory will have his 200th carry in Game 11, and if he's hit that mark by then, the Jets rush offense is performing ridiculously well. Things get a bit murkier in a more realistic scenario. If the rush offense slows down and Ivory's ypc falls, he'll need more carries to match his output, which will diminish his productivity/health. For argument's sake, let's say that he continues to be beastly and puts up ~4.0 ypc - that means it'll take 230 carries (Game 12) for him to get 1,000 yards. 250 carries is a lot for a player his age. Of course, the 1,000 yard marker is a bit of an arbitrary marker these days, and the quality of the runs (thought harder to quantify) is more important than the statistics, but it'll be interesting to see how it plays out over the season. Hopefully he hits 1,000 yards before Game 10 on less than 175 carries.
Interesting post and thanks for articulating these views on Ivory's strengths and role on this team. The subtext to your point is that today there really is no such thing as an everydown RB, at least in the sense of there being someone who not only can fill all the roles, but who you would leave in every down with the attendant risk and impact on freshness. Instead look at what it is the Jets are looking for primarily from Ivory. He more than fills that role. For the Jets, Ivory's role includes making the opponent pay even when they load the box. A more finesse RB may be less likely to be injured on any given play than Ivory with his straightahead style. But a finesse Rb would not be as helpful. Hopefully Ivory can keep it up and be productive for a long time, and will be helped doing this by being spelled and used appropriately.
Thank you for posting that so concisely! I remember fans being so frustrated at TJ doing exactly what you described. He was a decent, reliable back that had a good stiff arm. He never had that next gear or the power. He was purely a beneficiary of very stout run blocking. To call him a monster is not being realistic. He was a work horse. Shit, I thought Leon Washington was better than TJ by far.
Just because you ignore those things doesn't necessarily make it correct. Jamaal Charles and Le'veon Bell are as big of playmakers as there is in the NFL. Just because for some odd reason don't value backs that can catch the football doesn't make them worse players than Ivory. I have nothing against Ivory, he's perfect in the committee system. You can stay on your opinion as much as you want but looking at his body of work he's no higher than the 10th best rusher in the league.
When did Bell become a playmaker? He's a big back with good vision. You make it sound like he can take it to the house each time he touches the ball. Charles fits the bill but that's all he does, once you stack the box he has nowhere to run, he's no Barry Sanders. He's a long strider who needs running room to produce bigplays, similar to Darren McFadden or Chris Johnson.
Finally someone agrees ! lol.. usually when i say this i get laughed at (not on here but in general). All he needs is the carries though he hasn't been hurt for us since early in the 2013 season when he first got here.
I don't know about last season, but in 2013 he spent the first half of the season being limited with a preseason hamstring. They don't just go away.
