Triple Crown... He Did it! American Pharoah wins the TC

I always box it, and even if AP comes in first, the exacta with either 6 or 8 in the two will probably be around 30 for a 2$ bet. So you would still make 18$ off of your 12$ bet. Now, im a bit of a degenerate, so my bet will be a bit more than a 2$ box. Its certainly not a huge money maker, but there is profit to be made

 

I am telling you a 5-6 or 5-8 exacta will not pay 30 dollars. Those will be the two most bet exacta combinations.

Boxing the three favorites is a losing strategy.

edit: correcting post positions, had numbers wrong

 

Yisman, any suggestions for us unfamiliar at handicapping the ponies regarding tomorow's race?

 

Not big into horse racing, but if you play the exacta and AP wins and the second place horse ia a longer shot, it should pay out more

 

Thanks for posting that Joe, a friend at work told me about the exacta and said that if Barbaro won it would have netted $150

 

In the Preakness with the longest odds horse placing the exacta paid $124, in the Belmont only one horse is going off at that long of odds and less horses means a smaller exacta pool with probability of more payouts. Exactas are more about the amount of money in the exacta pool, less the track cut and then dividing it among winning tickets.

Edit: My mistake, same number of horses

I don't think A.P. is going to win so I wouldn't make any bet that includes him. Probably going to do my previously stated across the boards and a few bucks on some long shot exotics.

 

$124 for a $16 bet is not bad

 

Yes, if you bet a longshot to finish second.

Not if you bet Materiality or Frosted. 5-6 and 5-8 exactas are not paying out very well.

If you bet AP over horses other than the 6 or 8 then yes you could see a good payout.

If you like AP to win then do straight exactas, not exacta boxes, especially not with the second and third favorites.

I will be trying to beat AP and if I bet AP at all it will be to show. Minimal payout but betting to show is a much better bet than betting to win when the horse is odds on.

I will be betting Frosted to win.


edit: correcting post positions, had numbers wrong

 

Thanks. And good luck.

 

I play AP to win with all, $16

 

Since it is the third leg with the chance of a TC winner you are going to have more people betting him up in exactas than were in the Preakness so if it does hit then more people to split the pool with. You get him with a 5-1 or 6-1 and you may win your bet back.

 

How often do the 1st and 2nd in odds come in in that order?

 

I would say overall probably more than any other combination being they are the 1st and 2nd favorites.

 

I understand your rational and appreciate your offering it to me, the way I'm looking at it is its a $16 gamble....Mubtaahij 10-1 is interesting, won at Belmont recently (don't know the length of that race)

 

I have this weird dichotomy going on in my head.

While I'd like to see a Triple Crown winner, I also like the allure of it not having happened in such a long time so part of me is hoping it doesn't happen so the next time a 2 leg winner comes to Belmont, the hype is there.

If AP wins this year, they next time it happens it'll be like "meh, not a big deal".

_

 

There's a split among racing fans as to whether a TC winner would be good for horse racing or not.

I would've thought yes, but some say it would not be good for it long term.

 

No chance in hell. Multiple horses skipped the Preakness and rested. AP will not beat horses that are on fresh legs.

 

Wow. What a horse. Who said "Holy Shit"? Was that the jockey?

 

"I might not always be right, but i am never wrong".... RIP Grandpa...wish you were here to see the triple crown with me