I would go with a Tri-Box of American Pharoh, Mubtaahij, Dotmund and Carpe Diem I am thinking American Pharoh or Mubtaahij win. No big long shots take it this year as far as I can see. Years back I had about a 4 year run hitting the Trifecta in the derby but am currently on a 4 year or so drought. Didn't get to the track to lay my bet this year though.
Some strong money coming in on Carpe, can't go wrong with a Pletcher trained horse and Velazquez is an excellent jockey
Had Firing Line Win-Place-Show. Easy money. Always bet on Gary in the Derby, experience is key in such a large field.