Projections show split paths for Winston, Mariota by Loyola Marymount University economics professor, Football Outsiders staff writer and ESPN Insider contributor Andrew Healy On April 30, a quarterback is almost certain to go No. 1 overall in the NFL draft for the 13th time in the last 20 years. And while there was a great deal of optimism about all of those quarterbacks at the time they were drafted, the numbers suggest that only sometimes was that optimism warranted. For all their throws that leaped off the film, red flags should have jumped off the stat sheet for previous No. 1 picks such as Tim Couch and David Carr. Those same warning signs apply to Jameis Winston. Our new quarterback-adjusted stats and experience (QBASE) system finds that, even ignoring his off-field concerns, the odds are against Winston ever becoming an elite quarterback. Marcus Mariota, on the other hand, has all the statistical markers that previous elite quarterbacks have had. Other college quarterbacks whose numbers looked as good but who failed in the NFL have had at least one statistical weak point that marked them as potentially fraudulent, according to QBASE. By the numbers, Mariota has no such weakness. While the numbers may mean a little less in his case due to Oregon's system, highly drafted quarterbacks with his statistical resume have been the best bets to succeed in the NFL. QBASE does not call Mariota a sure thing. But, in contrast to Winston, Mariota would be worth the top pick in the draft. To predict NFL success for this year's quarterback class, QBASE looks at a range of statistics that we describe in detail at the end of the article. Those statistics account for the opposing defenses that each quarterback faced and the quality of his offensive teammates. Based on those adjusted stats, QBASE conducts 50,000 simulations to estimate the defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) each quarterback will generate in Years 3-5 of his NFL career. QBASE finds that only two quarterbacks in the 2015 draft are better than even-money bets to avoid being NFL busts, and the presumptive No. 1 pick is not one of them. Jameis Winston (Florida State) QBASE Projection Mean Projection in Years 3-5 378 DYAR Bust (< 500 DYAR) 61.3% Adequate Starter (500-1499 DYAR) 25.8% Upper Tier (1500-2500 DYAR) 9.5% Elite (>2500 DYAR) 3.3% The model gives Winston a 61.3 percent chance of being a bust (less than 500 DYAR in Years 3-5) and just a 12.8 percent chance of being at least an upper-tier quarterback. His projection here is higher than it would be if the stats did not correct for his tough schedule. Florida State faced only the 10th-toughest schedule overall according to our numbers, but it faced the nation's toughest set of opposing defenses in 2014. Still, Winston's projection puts him just third in the 2015 draft class, well behind both Mariota and Brett Hundley. If Tampa Bay picks him, QBASE will give Winston the third-lowest projection among the 13 quarterbacks drafted No. 1 overall since 1996. David Carr and Michael Vick are the only two top selections who ranked lower. And nobody with a QBASE projection in Winston's neighborhood has been worth the top pick. Predicted And Actual Performance For No. 1 Overall Picks PLAYER PREDICTED DYAR IN YRS 3-5 ACTUAL DYAR IN YRS 3-5 Carson Palmer 2,266 2,268 Peyton Manning 1,463 3,922 Matthew Staffod 1,125 3,021 Andrew Luck 1,076 879 (Yr 3 only) Eli Manning 892 1,179 Cam Newton 781 316 (Yrs 3-4 only) Alex Smith 771 -763 Sam Bradford 617 692 JaMarcus Russell 535 -834 Tim Couch 428 -366 Jameis Winston 378 * David Carr 365 -215 Michael Vick -446 -518 Note: Passing DYAR only, does not incorporate rushing value. QBASE finds fault with Winston for the same reasons it disliked Couch and Carr. All three quarterbacks started for only two college seasons and had good-not-great stats in their last college season. Winston has the same weakness as Couch: His adjusted yards per attempt is not as good as his completion percentage. QBASE also docks Winston a little for not playing better despite some elite teammates. Note that the projection does not account for the hard-to-quantify potential concerns surrounding Winston's off-field issues. Any adjustment for those issues could push Winston's bust potential even higher. Marcus Mariota (Oregon) QBASE Projection Mean Projection in Years 3-5 1,275 DYAR Bust (< 500 DYAR) 22.8% Adequate Starter (500-1499 DYAR) 40.5% Upper Tier (1500-2500 DYAR) 24.1% Elite (>2500 DYAR) 12.6% Mariota has the highest QBASE projection since 2012. Since 1995, only six quarterbacks -- Philip Rivers, Carson Palmer, Donovan McNabb, Russell Wilson, Robert Griffin III and Peyton Manning -- had better projections. QBASE sees Mariota as a three-year starter who posted huge numbers without any weak point. Adjusting for opposition and teammates, Mariota's adjusted yards per attempt in his last college season, relative to other Division I quarterbacks, trails only Wilson and Griffin. In addition, QBASE likes that Mariota's completion percentage is high relative to his peers. But are Mariota's numbers a product of the talent that surrounded him and the system in which he played? Mariota's projection accounts for Oregon having two tackles and a center projected to go in the early rounds of the 2015 and 2016 drafts, but makes no adjustments for Oregon's unusual pace of play. Questions about Mariota's ability to adapt to a more standard NFL offense do lend a note of caution to his projection. At the same time, the model also ignores Mariota's potential off-field strengths. And the two other quarterbacks with top-10 projections who got the most questions about their college production translating to the NFL -- Wilson and Aaron Rodgers -- both turned out well, although the concerns with Wilson and Rodgers were different from those with Mariota. Simply put, there has not been a quarterback in the last three drafts with Mariota's chances of being an upper-tier to elite-level quarterback. He is far from a sure thing, but quarterback-hungry teams should not let Mariota slip by…
...Brett Hundley (UCLA) QBASE Projection Mean Projection in Years 3-5 1,080 DYARBust (< 500 DYAR) 30.3% Adequate Starter (500-1499 DYAR) 39.2% Upper Tier (1500-2500 DYAR) 20.3% Elite (>2500 DYAR) 10.2% QBASE likes Hundley better than any quarterback from the 2013 or 2014 drafts. While he is about equally likely to be a bust as an upper-tier quarterback, Hundley has considerable upside for a team grabbing him in the second round. His 30.5 percent chance of being upper-tier or elite ranks him far ahead of Winston. While not as highly ranked as his completion percentage, even Hundley's adjusted yards per attempt stat is more impressive than it seems at first glance. Hundley faced the third-toughest set of opposing defensesin Division I last year. (As noted earlier, Florida State had the toughest schedule; Alabama was No. 2.) He also had fewer future early-round offensive teammates than either Mariota or Winston. On the other hand, our version of adjusted yards per attempt does not penalize Hundley for the sacks that he took at an unusually high rate. Hundley took fewer sacks last year, but adjustments for his propensity for losing yards could push Hundley's projection down as much as 200 DYAR. Bryce Petty (Baylor) QBASE Projection Mean Projection in Years 3-5 -292 DYAR Bust (< 500 DYAR) 80.2% Adequate Starter (500-1499 DYAR) 13.7% Upper Tier (1500-2500 DYAR) 5.2% Elite (>2500 DYAR) 0.9% Petty projects to be substantially worse than replacement level, in large part because QBASE questions the opposition that he faced in 2014. Petty accumulated his college stats against the 70th-toughest slate of opposing defenses. His 6.1 percent chance of developing into an upper-tier quarterback makes Petty not worth a third-round selection. Garrett Grayson (Colorado State) QBASE Projection Mean Projection in Years 3-5 -427 DYAR Bust (< 500 DYAR) 82.9% Adequate Starter (500-1499 DYAR) 12.2% Upper Tier (1500-2500 DYAR) 4.3% Elite (>2500 DYAR) 0.6% Grayson projects poorly for some of the same reasons as Petty. He faced college football's 73rd-toughest set of defenses last year. If Grayson gets picked late in the third round, he will have the ninth-lowest projection of any top 100 quarterback in the last 20 years. Sean Mannion (Oregon State) QBASE Projection Mean Projection in Years 3-5 -26 DYAR Bust (< 500 DYAR) 70.9% Adequate Starter (500-1499 DYAR) 19.3% Upper Tier (1500-2500 DYAR) 7.5% Elite (>2500 DYAR) 2.4% Mannion, like most middle-round quarterbacks, is a likely bust. But he has the highest chance of NFL success outside the top three prospects. With a 10 percent chance of being an upper-tier quarterback, Mannion is the only quarterback in the next group worth taking a middle-round flier on.
Anyway, he claims to have spoken to people in or "around" the organization. Whether you believe that to be true or not is your prerogative. Look it's more than a week before the draft and months before any real football, just posting things related to Mariota in a Mariota related thread. Let's all relax. Also, I'm always puzzled by posters discrediting media and pundits as though they are closer to the what's truly going on. Would you rather I have cited you?
Hey guy if Mariota falls to us I will be happy for the sake of the team going after a highly rated QB because it is the right direction to go, but you and a couple others have made it your mission to link every single positive report about him no matter how obscure or ludicrous the source and you think people are just trying to discredit you, get a grip. Some of these reports you post are laughable, maybe if you stuck by the ones that actually carried water you would not look so silly
When I post items that do not show Mariota in a favorable light, I must have failed to read or view it. When I post the opposite, I get this nonsense. Not sure how long it will take for it to sync in that I'm posting MARIOTA RELATED ITEMS IN A MARIOTA THREAD. I'm not even commenting just posting the articles or video. I'm sure some will find some value in the items posted whether for or against drafting Mariota. The debate has been dead for a while now. No one side is going to convince the other; we're all just watching the clock praying it moves faster so next Thursday is here already.
If a study done by a professor/Football Outsider staff writer/ESPN Insider is laughable, then where does your posts fall in this scale? Also, RIF (Reading Is Fundamental); I did not accuse anyone of trying to discredit me. Have at it; I don't care. What I said was "I'm always puzzled by posters discrediting media and pundits as though they are closer to what's truly going on". This applies to those individuals that are quick to discredit a media/pundit/analyst (i.e., Kiper, McShay, Mayock, Greenberg, Cimini, Mehta, Schein…whomever.) whenever they write or say something they disagree with.
All he said is that the Jets are very interested according to his sources. If true, it at least would give some fleeting assurance that the Jets would not pass if he was there at 6.
That Greenie is a Jet huge fanboy is no reason not to consider what he's said to have at least a smidge of credence. He's a big radio personality in the tri-state area and has much more access to folks in and around the NFL, the Jets, players, agents than we as common fans have. Is what he said true? Is it as true as far as he knows? Who knows? But it's a lot more than a few boobs on a fan message board have to go on. _
I am sure the Jets are interested. They went and visited him in Oregon, sent multiple people over. They did their due diligence. Mike hasn't said anything different then what we already know. I do assure you, that each time Mike opens his freaking mouth - something bad will happen.
The key is to only post articles that support your opinion. If it doesnt support your opinion, than it is just media drivel and you should form your own opinions. This works for every conflict in the history of the world.
I'm a Mariota fan, but QBASE is the most ludicrous measurement I think I've seen. They try to put "bust percentages" on players? Come on.
He's a professor of ECONOMICS. I've never asked to be considered an expert but you are providing his analysis like he is. I continue to be right about you
I beg to differ a bit with the bold. The fact he cited people in or close to the organization as being "enamored" with Mariota is somewhat different from what other media outlets have been putting out there. The Oregon visit could have just been due diligence. When an organization is "enamored" with one player, trading up becomes much more of a possibility.
All I did was post an article. When did posting an article by someone suddenly become to mean you are "profess"ing the author is an expert? Dude, follow your own advise and "get a grip". If you are that upset by how biased the article is, go ahead and write your own and I'll post it here too. This a message board we ought to be "fair and balanced" like FOX News.
Yeah I guess you are right. Let me ask my house keeper what she thinks of Mariota and I'll translate it into English and post it
IDK, I don't think the Jets go to Oregon, if they didn't have major interest in Mariota. Hell, they don't even want Winston to come in for a visit or even try. I think if you put the pieces together, the interest is pretty strong. Maybe very strong. You got Jet coaches constantly talking to him during the combine and pro days, you got the Jets going to Oregon - a lot work - IDK if that's just due diligence.
Your housekeeper is like a female groupie for the Jets so maybe she slept with one of our scouts or something. When the F has your housekeeper ever said anything intelligent about the Jets? She has a love song intro for every Jets QB that she likes. Why the hell would you cite her???
The funny thing is that at the time of those events many were saying not to read anything into any of that and that's just them doing their due dilligence.
