If Mariota is sitting at the Jets pick...

Discussion in 'Draft' started by CJLang, Feb 12, 2015.

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If Mariota is sitting there at the Jets pick you'd....

  1. Pick him in a heart beat

  2. Swap with Philly for their 1st (#20) another pick in top 4 rounds and Foles

  3. Swap with any team with a top 20 pick, a 3rd or 4th rounder, and their next year 1st rounder

  4. Would swap, but it would take more than the offers in the poll

Results are only viewable after voting.
  1. NYJets17

    NYJets17 Well-Known Member

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    NYJetsO12 likes this.
  2. roger

    roger Active Member

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    The Saints might consider it. Maybe they've decided to go into rebuild mode and they want to get rid of Drews salary. That's the only way it would work. I don't know if that's NOs plan.

    Also don't rule out the fact that their franchise could change ownership soon with old man losing his marbles. Maybe the franchise is more attractive to a potential buyer with Bree's off the books.


    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
     
  3. Hobbes3259

    Hobbes3259 Well-Known Member

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    Yep.

    Start the Amish pop gun, trade out, lose out, take Jones next year. And pick up Zeke on the way.
     
  4. Hobbes3259

    Hobbes3259 Well-Known Member

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    MSquared, isn't eyeing the pick. He's enhancing the trade value.
     
  5. Snatch Catch

    Snatch Catch Well-Known Member

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    Oorrrrrr he's getting a feel for what M quartic would be like...
     
  6. Hobbes3259

    Hobbes3259 Well-Known Member

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    LMFAO..

    Well played sir, I had a really shitty day, for a guy whose day is primarily spent hot tubbing and tanning.(yeah, that's no lie)

    THAT was an honest to God belly laugh, thanks for pushing me out of the doldrums.
     
  7. JStokes

    JStokes Well-Known Member

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    And hopefully he's dialing up Oak and Jax and Tenn on Friday.

    _
     
  8. legler82

    legler82 Well-Known Member

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    http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/52722/349/2015s-quarterback-conundrum?pg=1

    2015's Quarterback Conundrum [Numbers suggest Mariota more NFL ready than expected]

    Wednesday, March 11, 2015
    Greg Peshek Out of the Box Rotoworld

    Another year, another crop of Quarterbacks. Although this year there appears to be less controversy over whom is the signal caller, the underlying statistics to their passes are still more than worth examining. Of course stats are not and should not be the final word for judging a QB, but we can analyze each QB and find out how those traits we see on film may translate to the NFL. We may even be surprised by the outcomes.

    To get this data, I’ve charted every pass from every game by these quarterbacks. Looking at everything from down and distance to release location, we can break down the underlying stats to what we see when watching them play. You may note that not all stats will match with other stats services, since we’ve included drops as completions and taken out irrelevant throws like throw-aways and hail-marys.

    Where Did They Throw the Ball?
    [​IMG]
    - Immediately, the number of screens each QB threw stands out as interesting. Much is made of system quarterbacks who throw an inordinate amount of screens and in this case, only Hundley fits that bill. Both Winston and Mariota come in under average in percentage of screens thrown.

    - With that, Hundley threw downfield in the 10+ yard range significantly less than both of the other QBs. Just about 16% of his passes were in the critical 11-20 yard intermediate zone and only 10.6% of his passes made it past 20 yards.

    - Jameis Winston had a fairly normal distribution of passes, only swapping slightly less screens for more short 1-5 yard passes. Although the comparison can’t be made based on this stat alone, the average distribution of throws is similar to Andrew Luck’s senior year.

    - Standing out in Mariota’s charts is how often he threw to the pro-level 11-20 yard zone. 33.4% of his total passes were directed there, nearly 11% more than average. Although that did come as the expense of the long ball – where he only placed 9.7% of his passes.

    How Accurately Did They Throw It?
    [​IMG]
    - Through these three quarterbacks, Mariota was the only one that exceeded average on the intermediate and long throws. By our stats, Mariota’s 70.1% in the 11-20 yard zone would have been near tops in last year’s class. Even more encouraging is that these quality completion percentages were on a larger than average amount of his passes – meaning he didn’t just rack up stats on a small sample size

    - Somewhat surprisingly, Winston’s accuracy in the 11-20 yard range was lacking in his last season. Although we can see him make quality, professional throws on tape in that intermediate zone, it didn’t translate on the whole to his completion percentage.

    - Not a surprise is Hundley’s ability on short throws, but complete lack of accuracy on the intermediate and long balls. His 11-20 yard and 20+ yard completion percentages are among the worst we’ve seen in the past three to four classes.

    How Did They Do Under Pressure?
    [​IMG]
    - Hundley’s struggles against pressure and the blitz stick out like a sore thumb. While his completion percentage of 65.7% was only 6% below Winston, his accuracy facing pressure was drastically below both Winston and Mariota.

    - Winston’s numbers in these two categories are a bit of a dichotomy as he performed admirably against the blitz, but did not do quite as well under pressure. His 57.7% completion rate against pressure would have been close to the top of last year’s class but still behind both Bridgewater and Bortles.

    - Meanwhile, our numbers have Mariota competing 10% more of his passes when pressured than Winston at a completion rate of 67.7%. That would be nearly 5% above last year’s leader throwing against pressure – Teddy Bridgewater.

    What Type of Throws Were They?

    This year I tracked locations on the field to see what type of results would come out of it. I look specifically at initial snap location, release location and catch location which has given me the ability to break down pocket movement, actual throw length and success as throwing to different locations.
    [​IMG]
    - Winston was most successful throwing outside the numbers with a completion rate of 67.7% which is impressive given that the scheme he played in asked him to do that more often than the others.

    - Mariota on the other hand found his receivers accurately when throwing between the numbers and the hashes which lines up with Oregon’s propensity to throw down the seam. When we combine this knowledge with Mariota’s 11-20 yard accuracy from above, it paints a clear picture of where his strengths lie.

    This one requires a little bit of explaining. These are throws sorted by actual throw distance from one spot on the field to the catch point. To simplify, you could call any throw in the Far Left and Mid Left bucket as throwing across their body. While any throw in the Mid Right and Far Right groups would mean having to turn their body substantially the make the throw. Any throw in the Slight Left, Middle or Slight Right are throws right in front of the QB. This differs from actual target location because it takes into account the release point of the pass. These are a bit experimental, but still potentially interesting.
    [​IMG]
    - Mariota was extremely successful at throwing to his right at all levels – hitting 74% of his Far Right passes and consistently connecting with his receivers in the Mid and Slight passes as well.

    - Both Winston and Hundley had opposite experiences of Mariota, they were both more accurate overall throwing to their left than their right.

    - Both Winston and Hundley struggled with sub 60% completion percentages on passes where they had to open up their body and throw far to the right.

    Continued...
     
  9. legler82

    legler82 Well-Known Member

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    Continued…

    Passing Charts

    Below we’ve included throw location charts for each quarterback. These map out where each targeted pass was thrown. These can give you a feel for where a quarterback targeted and how successful he was in those areas.

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]
     
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  10. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    legler, you da man! Great stuff! Thanks for posting.
     
  11. JStokes

    JStokes Well-Known Member

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    Wow, great article.

    _
     
  12. jcass10

    jcass10 Well-Known Member

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    Interesting article for sure. I'm at the office so I kind of skimmed some of it.

    I may have missed some of it, but this article didn't show me that Mariota is any more ready to play at the next level than I originally thought. It showed me that he is a very talented player, had an amazing year, and has incredible ability. It's nice that he keeps his composure when being blitzed, but does he show the same composure if his first two options are covered.

    I never really had any questions of whether or not could make all the throws (although I did question his arm strength and zip). My concerns were how would he fair in a pro style offense. These things wont really show up in articles, its just a matter of him having the acumen to learn the intricacies of playing QB.

    How would he do taking snaps from under center (as opposed to shot gun)?
    How will he do commanding a huddle?
    Will he be able to look at his second and third read if his main option is covered? How quickly would he take off and run?

    These are all traits he will be given the opportunity to learn, the question is whether or not he will be able to.


    The article just showed me that Mariota is an excellent college QB, but delves very little into why he is NFL ready.
     
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  13. JStokes

    JStokes Well-Known Member

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    Yeah I'm not sure it shows NFL readiness either but I think it dispels the myth that his offense is based on short throws and screens or throws at or behind the LOS and that he's adept at making NFL level throws downfield.

    _
     
  14. jcass10

    jcass10 Well-Known Member

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    His yards per attempt I believe was over 10. Anyone who thought he was just a short thrower was way off.

    My concern is fitting the ball into a tight window and throwing receivers open. If the Jets have receivers open downfield, I like his chances of putting the ball where it needs to be.
     
  15. JStokes

    JStokes Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, was arguing this point with some Tebot in another thread. He was claiming Mariota's production was similar to the myth of Geno's production in college (which was severely inflated by shovel passes to Austin and Bailey), saying Mariota and Geno were the same guy.

    I'm still not sure why Tebow fans are still here or why anyone would give any credence they may have to analyzing QBs.

    _
     
  16. 101GangGreen101

    101GangGreen101 2018 Thread of the Year Award Winner

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    anyone know if the pro-day is going to be streamed online?
     
  17. jcass10

    jcass10 Well-Known Member

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    I'm not going to get into that one lol. You guys were both on such extreme sides of the spectrum, I didn't agree with either. Geno obviously relied on his two superstar WR's, but he still had a respectable Y/A and threw downfield too.

    I think he threw the ball downfield more than you credited him for, and he threw short passes to Austin and Bailey more than the other guy said.

    Don't know why anyone would still be a Tebow fan, but that's none of my business.
     
  18. JStokes

    JStokes Well-Known Member

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    Whoa whoa whoa I never said Geno didn't or couldnt or never threw down field at WVU. He absolutely did. A lot. When he got his feet set he threw a gorgeous long ball. I just think his yardage, completion % and TDs were vastly inflated by almost literal handoffs.

    _
     
  19. jcass10

    jcass10 Well-Known Member

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    I can agree with that.
     
  20. BrowningNagle

    BrowningNagle Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for posting but last year they did the same analysis and were really hard on Derek Carr, who's breakdown looked a lot like Hundley's here while Manziel's breakdown looked a lot like Mariota's.
     

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